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Estimated Reading Time:22 minutes
We have finally made it to the first round of the College Football Playoff. With that, it’s time to make our previews the most expansive they’ve been all season.
We’ll be going over the matchups to watch in both the run game and pass game for each offense and defense in the four first-round contests. Of course, we’ll predict who will join Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech in the quarterfinals.
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (Friday, 8 PM ET on ABC/ESPN)
Quarterfinal Matchup: Winner takes on No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl
The 2025 College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday night with Oklahoma hosting Alabama in an SEC matchup. This game serves as a rematch from their Week 12 affair, when the Sooners went on the road and took down the Crimson Tide by a 23-21 final score.
Oklahoma has a 10-2 record on the season and is playing in its first playoff under head coach Brent Venables — and the program’s first since 2019, back when Jalen Hurts was the Sooners’ quarterback. Meanwhile, Alabama has a 10-3 record after losing in the SEC championship game to Georgia. It’s also the Crimson Tide’s first playoff appearance under head coach Kalen DeBoer and first in two years.
The winner of this game moves on to the quarterfinals to take on top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
Alabama’s pass game against Oklahoma’s pass defense (Dalton): Ty Simpson vs. Brent Venables’ blitzes
As the regular season wore on, Alabama’s SEC opponents decided that their best course of action in slowing down Ty Simpson was to pressure him heavily. From Week 7 onward, Simpson was blitzed on 45.5% of his dropbacks while producing a pedestrian 58.2 PFF passing grade in those scenarios. His nine turnover-worthy plays versus the blitz are the most in the nation in that span.
Three of those turnover-worthy plays were forced by Brent Venables’ blitz-heavy defense. The Sooners blitzed Simpson on 32 of his 48 dropbacks in Week 12, and he posted a subpar 46.6 passing grade versus the blitz. Opponents have since continued that trend, including Georgia, which also blitzed Simpson nearly 60% of the time in the SEC championship game. Simpson and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will need to solve or avoid Brent Venables’ pressure packages in order to succeed through the air in this rematch.
Alabama’s run game against Oklahoma’s run defense (Max): Can the Crimson Tide find anything on the ground?
It’s no secret that Alabama has had serious problems running the football this season. The Crimson Tide only average 4.0 yards per carry, the third-fewest in the Power Four. Their 8.7% explosive run rate is also the ninth-worst mark in the entire FBS. It doesn’t help that Alabama’s leading rusher, Jam Miller, missed the SEC championship game with a lower leg injury, though he should be good to go for the playoff.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has been one of the best teams in the nation at defending the run. The Sooners are fifth nationally in both EPA per run and yards per carry allowed (3.5). In Oklahoma’s win over Alabama a month ago, the Sooners only permitted 108 total rushing yards at a 3.7-yard average. The Crimson Tide forced just two missed tackles on the ground in that game as well while fumbling twice.
Alabama must perform better on the ground this time to avoid placing too much burden on Ty Simpson’s shoulders.
Oklahoma’s pass game against Alabama’s pass defense (Max): Can John Mateer provide more as a passer with a few weeks off?
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was the Heisman Trophy favorite through the first few weeks, posting an 85.5 PFF passing grade through Week 4 that was a top-20 mark in the country. But ever since he broke his hand against Auburn, his production has dropped off a cliff. Since Week 7, the Washington State transfer’s 42.5 passing grade is the fourth-worst mark in the entire FBS.
That includes a 51.2 passing grade against Alabama, where he threw for only 138 yards with no touchdowns in the win. While the Crimson Tide haven’t had much of a pass rush this year, they’ve fielded one of the best secondaries in the country. Their 91.7 PFF coverage grade is tied for fifth in America, as all five starting defensive backs have at least a 70.0 coverage grade.
The Sooners are hoping a three-week break helps Mateer bounce back to his early-season form.
Oklahoma’s run game against Alabama’s run defense (Dalton): How will Alabama handle the threat of John Mateer’s legs?
Oklahoma features either an option or a designed quarterback run on roughly half of its designed rushing plays this season. For the past two seasons, defending those types of run plays has been a critical weakness for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama enters the playoff with a 92.3 PFF run-defense grade, 19th-best in the nation. However, when presented with an option or designed quarterback run, the Tide have earned an 83.2 run-defense grade that ranks 33rd. They’ve also allowed 2.1 yards before contact per carry and a 16% explosive run rate, both of which rank outside the top 80 in the FBS.
The Crimson Tide will need to play with superior discipline, particularly from their linebackers, in order to slow down the Sooners’ rushing attack.
Predictions
The Crimson Tide exact revenge on the Sooners in what should be a low-scoring game. Alabama wins and moves on to play Indiana in the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl.
Dalton: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 17
The Sooners seem to have Alabama’s number. The Crimson Tide need to find a way to alleviate pressure on Ty Simpson in order to win. I’ll take Brent Venables’ defense to dominate one more time on its home turf and end Alabama’s season in frustrating fashion.
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (12 PM ET on ABC/ESPN)
Quarterfinal Matchup: Winner takes on No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl
The Saturday slate of the first round begins with Miami traveling to Texas A&M. This game matches up the only two teams to beat Notre Dame this year, which is ultimately what got the Hurricanes into their first College Football Playoff with a 10-2 record. Since Miami has the same record as the Fighting Irish, its head-to-head victory got the Hurricanes into the playoff as the final at-large spot over Notre Dame.
The Aggies also qualified for their first playoff appearance with an 11-1 record. Texas A&M started the season off with a perfect 11-0 record before losing the regular-season finale to Texas. Offensive coordinator Collin Klein will become Kansas State’s coach next season, but he will finish out this playoff run with the Aggies.
Whoever wins this game will move on to the quarterfinals to take on No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
Miami’s pass game against Texas A&M’s pass defense (Dalton): Can the Aggies contain Malachi Toney?
As the season has progressed, true freshman superstar wide receiver Malachi Toney has become increasingly integral to Miami’s success. Entering the playoff, Toney ranks third among qualified wide receivers with a 90.5 PFF receiving grade. He has also not dropped a single one of his 106 targets this season, which currently ties a PFF College record for the most targets in a single year without a drop.
Toney’s ability to win after the catch creates a constant problem for opposing defenses. He leads all Power Four players with 623 yards after catch. Toney also paces the nation with 40 receptions and 322 yards on screen passes.
That creates an interesting matchup against a Texas A&M defense that allows just 2.4 yards per screen pass, fewest in the nation. The Aggies’ ability to rally to the ball and prevent Toney from creating explosive plays after the catch will be a big factor in slowing down the Hurricanes’ offense.
Miami’s run game against Texas A&M’s run defense (Max): Can Miami expose Texas A&M’s vulnerable run defense?
Thanks to an outstanding offensive line and a very good stable of running backs, Miami has had an effective ground game this season. The Hurricanes are 10th in PFF run-blocking grade (73.9) and 21st in successful run rate (38.1%). Also, running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is 11th in the nation with a 90.0 PFF rushing grade on the season. Miami likes to get right downhill in its run scheme, running inside zone or gap runs 78% of the time.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M allows 5.5 yards per carry, which is the sixth-worst mark in the Power Four. A total of 3.9 of that average comes after contact, the fourth-worst figure in the entire country. The Aggies also permit 5.4 yards per carry on inside zone or gap runs, which is 115th in America.
Texas A&M’s issues defending the run largely comes from the second and third levels of its defense. The Aggies’ linebackers and defensive backs need to bring their hard hats this week against the Hurricanes.
Texas A&M’s pass game against Miami’s pass defense (Max): Can Miami consistently pressure Marcel Reed with a four-man rush?
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has been extremely inconsistent with both his decision making and accuracy this season. His 18 turnover-worthy plays are tied for the eighth-most among Power Four quarterbacks, while his 52.3% accurate pass rate is the 15th-worst mark among 141 qualifying FBS quarterbacks.
Marcel Reed’s grades by situation
SituationPFF GradeBig-Time Throws/Turnover-Worthy PlaysKept Clean76.011/11Under Pressure47.86/7Not Blitzed55.57/14Blitzed81.710/4As that table shows, Reed is superior from a clean pocket than when he’s under pressure, but also much better when he’s blitzed than when defenses send a standard rush. The redshirt sophomore struggles when forced to read defenses with seven-plus defenders in coverage, but is capable of throwing to his hot routes or escaping with his elite mobility if defenses send extra rushers.
Therefore, the key for Miami to cause him to struggle is to consistently get home with only four rushers. While the Hurricanes blitz at the 13th-highest rate in America (49.1%), it’s not out of necessity. Miami’s 93.2 defensive line grade is second to only Texas Tech in the FBS, while Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are two of the five highest-graded edge defenders in the nation. When the Hurricanes don’t blitz, they have the sixth-best pressure rate in the country (37.8%).
Miami will have its hands full with Texas A&M’s offensive line, whose 78.1 team PFF pass-blocking grade is 20th nationally. The Aggies’ left tackle, Trey Zuhn III, has a 96.9 pass-blocking grade on the season, which is 3.5 points higher than any other offensive lineman in the FBS.
If the Hurricanes can get home on Reed with only four rushers, they can cause a lot of problems for Texas A&M’s offense.
Texas A&M’s run game against Miami’s run defense (Dalton): Will the right side of the Aggies’ offensive line continue to dominate on the ground?
Texas A&M boasts a relatively balanced rushing attack with regard to its run concepts and ability to hand the ball to several different threats. One interesting split, however, is the difference in the Aggies’ production running to each side of the center. When they rush through the right side of the line of scrimmage, they’ve averaged 6.1 yards per carry compared to just 4.7 yards when they break through the left side.
A big reason for that difference in production is the play of their right guard Ar’maj Reed-Adams and right tackle Dametrious Crownover. Those two have respectively earned 72.4 and 71.1 PFF run-blocking grades this season, which lead all qualified Aggies players.
They will have the unenviable task of blocking Bain and Mesidor, each of whom boast top-five PFF run-defense grades among edge defenders, at any given time on their side of the line of scrimmage. That battle will be crucial to the Aggies’ goal of achieving offensive balance.
Predictions
Marcel Reed struggles against the Hurricanes’ elite defense, while Carson Beck and Miami’s run game find just enough answers to pull off the road victory. The Hurricanes win and set up a date with Ohio State in the quarterfinals at the Cotton Bowl.
Dalton: Miami 23, Texas A&M 20
This game could come down to turnovers given each team’s starting quarterback. In a feisty defensive game, the Hurricanes escape College Station with a victory on the shoulders of Carson Beck and their outstanding pass rush.
No. 11 Tulane Green Wave at No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (3:30 PM ET on TNT/HBO Max/Tru TV)
Quarterfinal Matchup: Winner takes on No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl
We have another rematch in the first round of the playoff between Ole Miss and Tulane. The Rebels dominated the Green Wave back in Week 4 by a 45-10 final score.
Ole Miss is making the first College Football Playoff appearance in program history after finishing with an 11-1 record on the season. The Rebels will be without head coach Lane Kiffin, though, who left to take the LSU job. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding was promoted to be Ole Miss’ permanent head coach and will make his debut on Saturday.
Likewise, Tulane is also in the playoff for the first time after finishing with an 11-2 record and an American Championship. Like Kiffin, head coach Jon Sumrall is leaving the program for the Florida job, but he’ll be allowed to coach the Green Wave throughout their playoff run.
Tulane’s pass game against Ole Miss’ pass defense (Max): Can the Green Wave find answers for the Rebels’ man coverage and blitzes?
Tulane has had one of the more efficient passing attacks in college football this season, placing 15th nationally in successful pass rate (43.1%). But the Green Wave had easily their worst passing performance of the season against Ole Miss back in Week 4. In that game, quarterback Jake Retzlaff posted season lows in completion percentage (29.4%), passing yards (56) and passer rating (40.8).
The Rebels’ defense likes to sit back in zone coverage without blitzing too often. Their 17.4% man coverage rate is only 106th in the FBS, while their 28.5% blitz rate is 119th.
But against Tulane, Ole Miss played man coverage 26.5% of the time with a 42.4% blitz rate. The Green Wave’s receivers struggled to separate against the Rebels, which caused Retzlaff to have a season-high average time to throw of 3.30 seconds. It didn’t help that Tulane’s 56.2 PFF pass-blocking grade and 54.5% pressure rate allowed were each its worst marks of the season.
While at BYU in 2024, Retzlaff explained to PFF why he prefers when defenses don’t blitz him.
Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff has the seventh-best passing grade in the nation when defenses don’t blitz him (86.7).
— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) December 1, 2025
This isn’t new either, as he was excellent last year at BYU against standard rushes.
We asked Jake last year about why he loves it when defenses only send four at him. pic.twitter.com/Fg7iuC47zl
If he and the Green Wave don’t have answers for those blitz packages this time around, it could be another ugly performance for Tulane’s offense.
Tulane’s run game against Ole Miss’ run defense (Dalton): Will Jamauri McClure keep his late-season momentum going?
Early in the season, Tulane’s run game was spurred by starting running back Javin Gordon and quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who is currently the team’s leading rusher. However, its explosiveness on the ground waned, and Retzlaff played through a late-season injury. The Green Wave had to find another option to give them a spark.
Enter redshirt freshman Jamauri McClure, who has earned an 81.0 PFF rushing grade and averaged 6.8 yards per carry over the Green Wave’s past four games. McClure’s speed and ability to stress the edge have given Tulane more flexibility and explosiveness in its run game, particularly with a healthy Retzlaff looming as a read option threat. Ole Miss allows just 4.2 yards per carry on off-tackle runs this season, which ranks it 27th in the FBS.
Ole Miss’ pass game against Tulane’s pass defense (Dalton): Trinidad Chambliss’ deep ball vs. Tulane’s secondary
Trinidad Chambliss has done an outstanding job of placing accurate deep passes to his receivers all season. When targeting receivers at least 20 yards downfield, Chambliss has recorded a 95.1 PFF passing grade that ranks him third in the Power Four. He’s completed 56.1% of his deep passes this season, which ranks second in the Power Four behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin.
Chambliss completed five of his six deep passes in the Week 4 matchup between these two teams. The lone incompletion was a drop.
Tulane has struggled to contain the deep ball this season. When facing 20-plus yard targets, the Green Wave rank 105th in the FBS in PFF coverage grade while allowing the 10th-most completions. If their secondary doesn’t find a way to keep the Rebels’ weapons in front of them, it could be another long night for them in Oxford.
Ole Miss’ run game against Tulane’s run defense (Max): Kewan Lacy and Trinidad Chambliss against the Green Wave’s vulnerable run defense
Kewan Lacy has been the workhorse of Ole Miss’ offense this year. The true sophomore leads all Power Four backs with 20 rushing touchdowns and 86 forced missed tackles this season. And yet, the Missouri transfer wasn’t even the one who ran wild on Tulane back in the Rebels’ Week 4 win.
That would be quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, whose 113 rushing yards against the Green Wave were 46 more than in any other game this season. Lacy still had a solid day on the ground, rushing for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Ole Miss totaled a combined 241 rush yards in the victory, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
That game embodied Tulane’s run defense, which has been its biggest issue this season. The Green Wave are 102nd in PFF team run-defense grade and 107th in successful run rate allowed. If Tulane doesn’t perform better this week, the Rebels could once again run all over the team.
Predictions
It won’t be as lopsided as their Week 4 affair, but the Rebels still cruise to a victory over the Green Wave. Ole Miss sets up another rematch in the quarterfinals with Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, the only team to take down the Rebels this year.
Dalton: Ole Miss 35, Tulane 17
Tulane’s offense has developed since the last time these two teams met, but even without Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss proves it has too much firepower for the Green Wave to handle.
No. 12 James Madison Dukes at No. 5 Oregon Ducks (7:30 PM ET on TNT/HBO Max/Tru TV)
Quarterfinal Matchup: Winner takes on No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl
The final first-round game matches up Oregon and James Madison. The Ducks are back in the playoff for the second straight year after posting an 11-1 record, with their only loss coming at the hands of top-ranked Indiana. Both offensive coordinator Will Stein (Kentucky) and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi (California) were hired as head coaches during this coaching carousel, but they will be sticking with Oregon throughout its playoff run.
Meanwhile, the Dukes are in the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history after finishing 12-1 on the season with a Sun Belt Championship. Head coach Bob Chesney is departing the program for the UCLA job following this year, but he will be coaching James Madison throughout its playoff stretch.
James Madison’s pass game against Oregon’s pass defense (Dalton): Can Alonza Barnett III carry his hot streak into his toughest test of the season?
Alonza Barnett III had to overcome a knee injury that ended his 2024 season and competition from UNLV transfer Matthew Sluka in order to be able to lead James Madison to a Sun Belt title and a College Football Playoff berth. There were some struggles early in the season, but as Barnett regained comfort in the offense, he turned the Dukes’ offense into a well-oiled machine.
Since Week 8, Barnett ranks eighth among qualified FBS quarterbacks with an 88.0 PFF grade. His 14 passing touchdowns and 11 big-time throws are both top-25 marks in the nation in that span. Barnett throws an excellent deep ball, particularly down the middle of the field, and he’ll need to find a way to create explosive plays against an Oregon outfit that permits explosive passes just 9.6% of the time — the seventh-lowest rate in the FBS.
James Madison’s run game against Oregon’s run defense (Max): Can the Dukes rely on their run game?
James Madison’s entire offense is centered around its ability to run the football. The Dukes’ 58.9% run rate is ninth in the FBS, and for good reason too. James Madison is second in PFF rushing grade (93.3) and fifth in EPA per run (0.163). Its backfield is headlined by Wayne Knight and Alonza Barnett III. Knight’s 1,258 rushing yards are 10th among FBS running backs, while Barnett’s 14 rushing touchdowns are tied for seventh among all quarterbacks in America.
Oregon’s run defense has been more than solid this year, placing 35th in team PFF run-defense grade and third in team tackling grade. The Ducks have only allowed an explosive run on 6.9% of attempts, which is the lowest rate in the Power Four.
If Oregon performs that well in run defense in this game, it’s going to be hard to imagine the Dukes getting much done offensively with how good the Ducks’ secondary has been.
Oregon’s pass game against James Madison’s pass defense (Max): Can the Dukes get home on Dante Moore?
Dante Moore has been stellar in his first season as Oregon’s starting quarterback, which is why he’s a projected top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The redshirt sophomore’s 91.2 PFF passing grade is second to only Ohio State’s Julian Sayin among FBS quarterbacks this year.
The one game where Moore struggled was in the loss to Indiana, where he posted season-lows in passing grade (45.0) and adjusted completion rate (71.9%). The Ducks allowed a 35.7% pressure rate in that game, their worst mark of the season by 19%.
James Madison is third in PFF coverage grade this year, running man coverage at the 12th-highest rate in America (38.7%). But Moore is fifth in the nation in PFF passing grade against man coverage with an 87.3 mark and now has a receiving corps at full strength.
The Dukes are also ninth in PFF team pass-rush grade (84.4), but Oregon has the best PFF team pass-blocking grade in the country with an 88.9 mark. Putting Moore under consistent duress is paramount for James Madison’s defense to have success.
Oregon’s run game against James Madison’s run defense (Dalton): Can the Dukes slow down the Ducks on the edges?
Dante Moore and the Oregon passing game usually garner plenty of spotlight, but the Ducks run the football nearly 53% of the time. They boast multiple legitimate rushing threats in Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. All three of those players have earned at least a 90.5 PFF rushing grade this season.
The Ducks are particularly dangerous on the ground when they attack the edges. Oregon ranks among the top five teams in the FBS with a 93.0 rushing grade and 6.7 yards per carry on off-tackle runs. Meanwhile, James Madison has disallowed production on the edges all season. The Dukes have surrendered just 3.2 yards per carry on off-tackle runs this season, which places them second in the nation behind Georgia.
James Madison will need to contain Oregon’s dangerous running back unit between the tackles in order to slow down the Ducks.
Predictions
Max: Oregon 34, James Madison 17
The Dukes’ defense keeps it interesting early, but James Madison doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to overcome an elite Ducks defense. Oregon wins its first College Football Playoff game since its inception in 2014 and moves on to play Texas Tech in the quarterfinals at the Orange Bowl.
Dalton: Oregon 31, James Madison 13
James Madison possesses the defensive chops to hang around in this game, but Oregon boasts elite trench units, a potential first-round pick at quarterback and a defense that specializes in preventing explosive plays. The Ducks take care of business at home.