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Estimated Reading Time:11 minutes
We're diving into every matchup in the conference championships of the 2025 NFL playoffs — including key storylines, matchups to watch and injury news. The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos kick things off on Sunday afternoon.
New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos
Storyline of the game: Can the Broncos’ offense do enough to survive?
The Broncos were met with the devastating news that they’d be without Bo Nix (77.1 grade; 13th) for the rest of the playoffs after their 2024 first-round pick suffered a fractured ankle in the final moments of the 33-30 divisional round win against the Bills. Nix had one of his better games of the year in the win, completing 56.5% of his passes for 279 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, and he added four big-time throws with two turnover-worthy plays. Though he has his flaws and inconsistencies, the young quarterback has shown a lot of growth in Year 2.
However, the Broncos will instead be looking to backup Jarrett Stidham to lead the offense. Stidham earned a 55.5 overall PFF grade in 2023 when he started two games at the back end of the season to end the Russell Wilson fiasco. With Nix, the Broncos are 21st in success rate and 12th in EPA per play, but have kicked on since their bye week: They’re ninth in EPA per play and eighth in success rate since Week 12. Without him, there will be questions about whether or not the Broncos can survive with Stidham at quarterback.
The Patriots’ defense has upped its game down the stretch. New England is fourth in EPA per play and 15th in success rate and pressures opposing quarterbacks on 40.1% of pass-rushing snaps, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Stidham recorded a 55.8 grade when pressured in 2023, but throwing him back into the spotlight on one of the biggest stages possible — even with a pass-blocking unit that has the highest PFF pass-block grade — will come with a risk. Does Stidham have enough in his locker?
Matchup to watch: Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte vs Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II
Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte (73.8 grade; 36th) has taken a big step forward in his third season in the NFL and has become a key cog of the Patriots’ offense in 2025. The former LSU star has caught 40 passes for a career-high 692 yards and seven touchdowns this year and has become the top deep threat for Drake Maye (87.4 grade; 5th). His 12 receptions of 20 yards or more lead the Patriots and are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL, while his six deep touchdowns are the most.
Boutte paced the team with 75 receiving yards against the Texans in the divisional round, with the big moment coming on a 32-yard touchdown catch against Texans corner Derek Stingley (65.6 grade; 45th). Boutte was targeted just once on 11 snaps vs. Stingley but made that opportunity count, and he’ll likely have to do the same against Broncos star Patrick Surtain II (70.3 grade; 27th) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Surtain allowed four receptions on four targets for 35 yards against the Bills, but he doesn’t get beaten deep often. Surtain has permitted just five receptions for 20 yards or more in 2025.
If the two are matched up, though, the opportunity will likely come. Maye pushes the ball downfield often for the Patriots, and when he does, his favored target is Boutte. Surtain has to be ready, and Boutte has to take advantage if and when the time comes. He might only get one chance.
Betting Trends
The Patriots enter the game as 5.5-point road favorites against a strong Broncos team. It’s the fifth time this season the Patriots are road favorites, and they’re 3-1 against the spread in those scenarios in 2025. Overall, the Patriots have been excellent at covering, as they’ve reached the spread in five straight games.
Meanwhile, the Broncos enter the game under different circumstances. With Nix at quarterback, they likely would be home favorites, but are now underdogs. They’ve been home underdogs twice this season, but are 2-0 ATS. The Denver defense will undoubtedly keep this one close.
Best Bet: Broncos HB RJ Harvey under 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Broncos will be happy with how running back RJ Harvey (69.8 grade; 38th) has contributed to the offense in his rookie season, as the 2025 second-round pick has 12 total touchdowns on the year. However, Harvey is still finding his groove on the ground and earned just six carries for 20 yards against the Bills in the divisional round.
Harvey has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in just five games, and has rushed for under 30 yards in two straight contests. The Patriots are eighth in EPA per rushing play, and Harvey will likely struggle to create explosive plays while sharing carries with Jaleel McLaughlin (65.2 grade).
Additional News
- Broncos WR Pat Bryant (head) is questionable after suffering a concussion vs. the Bills in the divisional round.
- Fellow Broncos WR TroyFranklin (leg) is also questionable after leaving the Bills game early.
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Mock Draft Simulator 2026 NFL Draft Big Board Big Board Builder NCAA Premium Stats SubscribeLos Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Storyline of the game: Rams-Seahawks III is must-see TV
These NFC West foes have been the two best teams in the NFL this season. The Rams’ 96.1 PFF grade is first in the NFL, while the Seahawks' 94.3 PFF grade is a close second. They split their season series in two excellent games and have the best and second-highest odds of winning the Super Bowl.
In an ideal world, this would be the Super Bowl 60 matchup. But alas, the Rams and Seahawks will duke it out one final time in the NFC Championship Game.
The Rams enter the showdown leading the NFL in EPA per play on offense, while the Seahawks’ defense is second in EPA per play allowed. The two previous matchups have been a chess match between head coaches Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald, while there are heaps of star talent on both sides of the ball on both rosters. Rams wideout Puka Nacua (96.1 grade; 1st) and Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (92.8 grade; 2nd) have been the two best at their positions in the NFL in 2025 and will likely show up when it matters most.
The Seahawks enter the game off the back of dismantling the 49ers 41-6 in an utterly dominant playoff display, while the Rams eked out a 20-17 overtime win against the Bears. Los Angeles hasn’t looked at its best in the postseason, but these two teams bring out the best in one another.
Matchup to watch: Rams’ pass coverage vs. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba has been the most inevitable part of the Seahawks’ offense in 2025. The third-year receiver has caught 122 passes for 1,812 yards and 11 touchdowns, and led the league in regular-season receiving yards.
Smith-Njigba was sparingly used against the 49ers, catching four passes for 19 yards and a touchdown, but the Seahawks’ big lead early on meant passing attempts were limited. That won’t be the case against the Rams, as Smith-Njigba will be a big part of the game plan. He caught 17 of 24 targets for 201 yards and a touchdown in two games against the Rams, compiling an 85.5 overall PFF grade, and could well garner double-digit targets in the conference championship.
If Smith-Njigba does earn those targets, you’d expect Sam Darnold (79.9 grade; 9th) to push the envelope. Smith-Njigba and Darnold have connected on more deep passes (16) than any other pairing in the NFL.
The Rams have been good in coverage in 2025; their 90.0 PFF coverage grade leads the NFL, and they’re ninth in EPA per play allowed in coverage. Yet, they’re still a unit you can attack downfield. Los Angeles has surrendered the 12th-most explosive plays in 2025, and the second-most since Week 15.
Betting Trends
The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs in the NFC Championship Game, marking the first time since the 38-37 overtime loss to the Seahawks in Week 16 that they’re underdogs. They covered the spread in that game. The Rams are 12-7 ATS this season, and 1-1 as underdogs.
The Seahawks have been favorites in their last eight games, and are 5-3 ATS in those contests, but failed to cover the spread against the Rams in the Week 16 win.
Additional News
- Rams CB Emmanuel Forbes (arm) is questionable.
- Seahawks TB Zach Charbonnet (leg) suffered a torn ACL against the 49ers and is out for the season.
- Seahawks T Charles Cross (leg) is questionable.