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The 2026 NFL Draft is just a week away, although projections continue to be few and far between for how the first round will play out. Day 1 of the draft is consistently chaotic, but this year’s crop feels particularly unpredictable — due in part to non-premium positions topping big boards, injuries marring talented players and looking ahead to 2027.
All of that chaos should carry over into trades happening on April 23. Just last year, we saw the Jaguars and first-year general manager James Gladstone make a splash, moving up three spots to grab two-way sensation Travis Hunter just as commissioner Roger Goodell opened the festivities.
Analyzing both current and future draft capital is a useful heuristic in guessing which teams may try to move up or down, but so too is evaluating recent draft history. As the last 10 years reveal, we should be in for some more fireworks in 2026.
While pre-draft trades involving first-round picks are prevalent — just look at the deals for Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Waddle this spring — we’ll focus on draft-day-only trades for the sake of this exercise. After all, there’s no better feeling than finding out about a pick swap in real time while watching the broadcast, trying to deduce which player a team is targeting in moving up.
From 2016 to 2025, an average of 5.5 first-round trades transpired every draft. That number has fallen below average in both of the last two years, and the figure is recently inflated by the nine exchanges struck in 2022, when receivers A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown were also dealt. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if the 2026 Draft skewed closer to five or fewer first-round trades given that teams covet their 2027 picks, plus the perception that this year’s prospects aren’t worth surrendering more capital.
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Especially in a bit of a top-heavy draft, it’s likely that at least one trade will occur with a team catapulting high for an elite talent. The Cowboys, holding extra first-round selections in both of the next two drafts, continue to make sense as a franchise that could make the leap.
Instead, the more common area of trade has been the final 10 picks of the first round. In the last decade, drafts have averaged 3.5 trades involving Picks 23-32, with a common maneuver being getting back into the first round.
It’s logical that these picks are more commonly on the move, as they hold less relative value. Such trades are often meant to prevent another team from snagging a certain player or to receive a fifth year on a contract, meaning that a franchise may only need to move up a handful of slots. Consequently, these trades traditionally involve lower prices — although the Falcons parted with their 2026 first-round pick to grab James Pearce Jr. last season.
Although transactions have been somewhat few and far between on the first night of the draft, the logic behind those picks has been extra compelling. Indeed, a large chunk of first-round trades revolve around moving up for quarterbacks. Consider the moves below, in which teams reached an agreement in order to select a gunslinger.
YearTeamOriginal PickAcquired PickQB Selected2025Giants3425Jaxson Dart2024Vikings1110J.J. McCarthy2021Bears2011Justin Fields2020Packers3026Jordan Love2018Bills127Josh Allen2018Cardinals1510Josh Rosen2018Ravens5232Lamar Jackson2017Bears32Mitchell Trubisky2017Chiefs2710Patrick Mahomes2017Texans2512Deshaun Watson2016Broncos3126Paxton LynchWith the chance to change a franchise’s fortunes overnight at the sport’s most critical position, general managers aren’t afraid to pull the trigger. That could especially ring true this year in a bad quarterback class. Teams like the Cardinals, Jets or Steelers are in position to potentially acquire another first-round pick and select Alabama’s Ty Simpson, the consensus QB2.
This robust sample of data also sheds light into the most active and passive general managers. In the last 10 years, the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs lead the way in terms of trading up on Day 1 — doing so four times in that span. For these franchises, the gamble has often been worth it to acquire the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Trent McDuffie, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Carter.
Meanwhile, teams like the Bengals and Patriots haven’t traded up at all in the first round this decade, even preferring moving down. Along similar lines, franchises such as the Saints and Dolphins have seldom if ever done so since 2016 on draft night, occasionally relying on pre-draft swings.
Ultimately, the 2026 NFL Draft projects as a fascinating one with wide-ranging team evaluations of a unique group of prospects. As the past decade suggests, those differing views should foster at least three first-round trades next Thursday. Make sure to get your caffeine ready, because a greater concentration of those deals will probably happen at the end of the night.