2026 NFL Draft: Which blue-chip prospects are at risk of a surprise slide?

• Positional Value Pressures: Even elite talents like Caleb Downs and Jeremiyah Love face the reality of positional value. With the Cincinnati Bengals moving out of the No. 10 slot, Downs lacks a clear “floor” in the top 10. Similarly, unless the Tennessee Titans or New York Giants prioritize a playmaker over the trenches, Love could slip into the 11–15 range.

• 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

True draft-night fallers are becoming increasingly rare, as opinions on prospects shared by NFL franchises and the media have become more aligned than ever.

Aside from Laremy Tunsil in 2016 and, to an extent, Shedeur Sanders last season, we haven’t seen a prospect frequently mocked inside the top 10 fall significantly on draft night.

The closest comparisons for genuine blue-chip fallers in recent drafts are Christian Gonzalez, who was widely considered a steal by the Patriots at 17th overall three years ago, and Derwin James, who was also selected at 17th overall after being heavily mocked to go early in 2018. It’s safe to say both players have worked out for their respective franchises.

The top of this year’s draft arguably lacks polarizing prospects compared to previous iterations. The players projected to come off the board early have very few character concerns or injury histories that would warrant a slide on Thursday night.

That said, “rare” doesn’t mean impossible. The top prospects may lack the headline controversy of Tunsil or the soap-opera narrative of Sanders, but there are still schematic question marks, positional value debates and front office tendencies that could push one of these blue-chip names further down the board than may be expected.

No Chance of Falling: QB Fernando Mendoza

I can form some semblance of an argument for every other top prospect to fall. I cannot do so for Fernando Mendoza. And for good reason. Mendoza’s 91.6 overall PFF grade this past season ranks among the best of the last 20 quarterbacks drafted inside the top 10.

The only such players with higher-graded final college seasons are Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Zach Wilson, Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward. Three of those names also won the Heisman Trophy. Only Joe Burrow can match Mendoza’s championship pedigree.

Almost certainly not falling out of the top 10: LB Arvell Reese, Edge David Bailey

The top two pass rushers in the draft play such a premium position that it’s virtually impossible to conjure up a scenario where either one drops into the double digits.

This pair isn’t without question marks that could cause a franchise or two to pass. Some have questioned Bailey’s work rate behind the scenes, while Reese’s full-time projection to an edge role could scare more traditional franchises away.

While listed as a linebacker last season, Reese’s 75.8 overall PFF grade would be the third-lowest among edge defenders drafted inside the top 10 over the last decade. Only Travon Walker and Tyree Wilson earned lower grades in their final college seasons. It’s still early, but both have underwhelmed in their NFL careers to date.

David Bailey, on the other hand, is set to become the third-highest-graded edge defender selected inside the top 10 over the last decade. Only Aidan Hutchinson and Chase Young surpassed Bailey’s 93.3 overall PFF grade last season.

In general, enough teams acknowledge the sheer quality of Bailey and the untapped potential of Reese that this pair likely won’t make it outside the top five, let alone the top 10.

Remote possibility due to other options: T Francis Mauigoa, WR Carnell Tate

Right after the conclusion of the 2025 college football season, you could have classified Francis Mauigoa in the same “highly unlikely” tier as Reese and Bailey, but the emerging presence of Monroe Freeling makes Mauigoa slightly more susceptible to slipping in certain scenarios.

While it appears the majority of the league prefers Mauigoa, who earned higher grades than Freeling in both pass protection and run blocking last season, the Georgia left tackle is objectively the better athlete. Freeling posted faster 40-yard dash and split times, higher vertical and broad jumps and also boasts longer arms than Mauigoa.

Freeling’s production is also difficult to argue against, as he allowed just eight pressures on 434 pass-blocking snaps last season. However, Georgia’s notable lack of true pass sets on offense should be taken into account.

It remains unlikely that Mauigoa will slip into double-digit territory. Even if the tackle-needy Browns opt for Freeling (or Spencer Fano) at sixth overall, Mauigoa would present excellent value to the Kansas City Chiefs at ninth overall.

Carnell Tate is in a similar position, as his evaluation is not what’s preventing him from cementing a place inside the top 10. Rather, it’s the competition posed by other top receivers, Jordyn Tyson and Makai Lemon.

Tyson and Lemon each bring differing skill sets to the table. All it takes is a team preferring Lemon’s slot production or Tyson’s ability after the catch to force Tate down the board. Similar to Mauigoa, Tate would be considered a major coup at ninth or 10th overall for the Chiefs, Giants or a team trading up the board.

If Tate were to fall outside the top 10, there’s a good chance he wouldn’t have to wait much longer, as he could land with the Miami Dolphins, who need pass-catching talent at 11th overall.

Could fall due to positional value: RB Jeremiyah Love, LB Sonny Styles, S Caleb Downs

Even within this category, there appears to be a clear order from least to most likely to fall down the board. Love likely plays the least valuable position of the trio in draft terms, but his sheer talent makes him a legitimate candidate for the top tier alongside Fernando Mendoza.

However, it’s rare for a team to trade up to ninth or 10th overall to draft a running back, especially if teams at the top of the draft prioritize more valuable positions. As talented as Love is, his place in the top 10 cannot be guaranteed.

The same can be said for the Ohio State duo of Styles and Downs. The perception of each player has drifted in opposite directions since the end of the season. Styles was still considered a mid-first-round prospect by many analysts prior to his standout combine performance.

Downs has been viewed as a future top draft pick since the beginning of his collegiate career. Despite playing a position that is relatively less valuable than those in the trenches, it’s difficult to imagine a player of Downs’ caliber dropping out of the top 10.

The argument for Downs falling is that his previous stopgap — the Bengals at 10th overall — are no longer on the board after trading for Dexter Lawrence. The Giants could benefit from Downs just as much, but the possibility of a wildcard selection, such as a wide receiver or even guard Olaivavega Ioane, cannot be ruled out at this spot.

Genuine threat of falling: Edge Rueben Bain Jr.

Bain is perhaps the top prospect most susceptible to a fall for multiple reasons. For starters, his short arm length — which has yielded little proven success at the NFL level — could cause some traditional evaluators to look elsewhere.

Less conventionally, a recent story regarding an auto accident involving Bain in 2024 could present challenges if not thoroughly investigated by NFL teams. However, there appear to be very few question marks surrounding Bain’s off-field character.

Working in Bain’s favor is the lack of other edge defenders behind him on the board. Assuming Reese and Bailey are both selected before him, it’s highly unlikely that a team in need of an edge defender will instead opt for Akheem Mesidor or Keldric Faulk — the 20th- and 22nd-ranked players on PFF’s big board, respectively.

Mesidor was highly productive in his own right, and while he narrowly edged Bain in both total sacks and pressure rate (15.1% versus 14.9%) last season, Bain has age on his side, as he is more than three years younger than his Miami teammate.

Wouldn’t be considered a faller: CB Mansoor Delane

If the first 10 picks pass without Delane hearing his name called, it wouldn’t raise many eyebrows, as several mocks have him going in the 11–14 range. Anything beyond 15th overall would be considered a steal for the consensus top cornerback in the class.

The aforementioned Christian Gonzalez found himself in a similar position when teams opted for help in the trenches instead (six of the eight picks before Gonzalez were spent on linemen).

Some analysts have floated the idea that Jermod McCoy could be the first cornerback selected after proving he is back to his best with an excellent pro day performance.

Delane’s average draft position on the PFF mock draft simulator is 10.5. Similar to Bain and Downs, it’s likely the Giants opting for Jordyn Tyson at 10th overall could cause Delane to miss out.