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Black Monday 2026: What every NFL team with a coach on the hot seat should do

Black Monday 2026: What every NFL team with a coach on the hot seat should do
Artículo Completo 2,252 palabras
Based on PFF grades and information, below is the best choice for organizations searching for their directions this offseason.
Cardinals and Bengals should hire new head coaches.
  • Not time to part ways with John Harbaugh just yet: The Ravens were among the league's biggest let-downs in 2025, but Harbaugh has still led the team to tremendous heights in recent memory.
  • Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

Estimated Reading Time:12 minutes

The 2025 NFL regular season is complete in all of its zaniness — with the final quarter of RavensSteelers on Sunday night perfectly encapsulating a frenetic, unpredictable season. Although 14 teams are preparing for playoff action, the remaining 18 have already begun formulating their offseason plans.

Perhaps no day is more formative in that process than the first Monday following Week 18. In fact, the Falcons already wasted no time in firing both head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot, while the Colts proclaimed that they’d retain both Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard.

But, what should other franchises with contested head coaches do? Based on PFF grades and information, below is the best choice for organizations searching for their directions this offseason.

Coaches That Should be Fired

Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals

Although the NFC West is considered the best division in football — sending three powerhouses to the postseason — the Cardinals are certainly an exception. However, the team’s performance in 2025 has become rather expected under Gannon.

In three seasons in Arizona, Gannon has compiled a 15-36 record, including closing 2025 on a nine-game losing streak. What was viewed as an improved roster with a free-agent spending frenzy quickly underwhelmed, fostering new, profound questions about positions like quarterback. Similarly, Arizona’s once-potent offense regressed to 23rd in EPA per play, while its retooled defense still finished 27th in success rate.

The Cardinals have hardly been competitive under Gannon, especially in their own division — where Arizona went winless this season. Despite reports circulating that the organization seems likely to retain Gannon and make changes elsewhere, that decision seems futile based on the body of work the head coach has put forth.

Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders assembled what seemed to be a jackpot offseason by trading for Geno Smith, drafting Ashton Jeanty and hiring both Carroll and general manager John Spytek. Instead, a team that could have contended for the postseason fell flat on its face, likely regressing to a far worse outlook moving forward.

The invigorating Carroll didn’t infuse much energy in his first season in Las Vegas, with the Raiders ranking 22nd or worse in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. Granted, injuries to players like Brock Bowers and Kolton Miller didn’t help, but Smith’s decline (58.2 PFF passing grade) and a once-promising offensive line flatlining (30th in overall PFF grade) are rather inexplicable. Moreover, the future of edge defender Maxx Crosby may also be in doubt after he was placed on injured reserve against his own desires.

With Las Vegas securing the No. 1 overall pick, selecting a quarterback to revitalize one of the league’s worst offenses feels likely. What will also presumably follow is a new coach — leaving a sour impression of one of the NFL’s better guides of the last 15 years.

Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals

For yet another season, the Bengals entered a fresh slate with a talented roster seeking to return to the playoffs. However, Cincinnati missed the postseason for the third straight campaign — and the blame falls squarely on Taylor.

Yes, Joe Burrow did miss nine games due to a turf toe injury — but the Bengals received adequate play from backup Joe Flacco, who recorded a 69.7 PFF passing grade in his stint with Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defense was again languid despite changing defensive coordinators. The ignominious unit ranked 29th in EPA per play, 28th in success rate and 31st in yards per play allowed.

Sure, Taylor made a Super Bowl with the Bengals and reportedly has the support of Burrow. But since 2022, he’s accrued a 24-27 record with no appearances in late January. Considering the team’s nucleus of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins isn’t getting any younger — and with longstanding questions surrounding the team’s offensive and defensive lines — retaining Taylor would keep the team in purgatory.

Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers enjoyed a scintillating start to 2025, beginning 5-1 and with an 87% chance to make the playoffs. Instead, everything came to a careening halt — a representation of Bowles’ tenure in Tampa Bay.

What was once a great group on both sides of the ball fizzled out down the stretch. Across the team’s 2-7 stretch in the second half of 2025, the Buccaneers placed 22nd in offensive EPA and 28th in defensive EPA per play. Some regression may have been expected, but a team with this much talent should never have fallen this flat. Even individual player struggles — like those from Baker Mayfield, Zyon McCollum and Bucky Irving — are tough to fully rationalize.

Yes, Tampa had won three straight NFC South crowns. But as the 2025 season reinforced, that may not be much of an accomplishment after all. Bowles’ 1-3 playoff record is also a stain, never advancing past the divisional round in three tries. Concerns that manifested after last year’s wild-card defeat are only more prominent, and a win in Week 18 shouldn’t masquerade those.

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Stefanski’s career in Cleveland is a bit of a bizarre one, leading the franchise to revelatory heights but also major doldrums. After two straight poor seasons, Cleveland will — and probably should — move on.

The Browns’ defense was fabulous in 2025, placing fourth in EPA with not only projected Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, but also underrated studs across the board. A defense that formidable should unquestionably yield more than four wins, but Cleveland’s stagnant offense was an Achilles’ heel. The Browns ended the year dead last in overall PFF grade, EPA per play and success rate, marking the second straight season finishing in the offensive basement.

Cutting ties with a two-time Coach of the Year is never an easy pill to swallow, but an 8-30 mark isn’t very digestible, either. Considering Stefanski’s offensive background, it’s difficult to come to terms with a unit being that terrible in two consecutive years — and needing wholescale changes.

Coaches That Should Be Retained

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins

Through the first seven weeks of the 2025 season, few teams were more mortified than the Dolphins. Miami sat 1-6 in a pivotal season for both its brain trust and roster — but instead of rolling over, the franchise displayed some promise under McDaniel.

Indeed, the Dolphins closed the year 6-4 while placing 10th in offensive success rate and 19th in defensive EPA per play — both of which were sizable improvements. Although Tua Tagovailoa was benched for his recurring struggles (and 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate), players like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Aaron Brewer, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle still earned overall PFF grades above 81.0.

Miami does have a quagmire under center, with moving on from Tagovailoa the most likely (albeit challenging) option. But considering the team’s second-half play and solid roster, giving McDaniel one final shot with a short leash feels fair.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens proved to be one of the league’s foremost disappointments in 2025. Rather than competing for a Super Bowl, Baltimore missed the postseason for the first time since 2021 — which naturally spurred questions about Harbaugh’s future.

It’s true that several of the Ravens’ problems were self-inflicted, including surrendering two second-half leads of 11 or more points in losses to the Bills and Patriots. The team’s defense was a lowlight, finishing 17th in EPA per play and 29th in pressure rate despite selecting two defensive players with its top two draft picks. Poor outings on big stages — like on Thanksgiving against the Bengals and twice against the Steelers — were rife with near-touchdowns and defensive gaffes.

At the same time, Lamar Jackson’s injuries can’t be ignored. The two-time MVP didn’t look like his usual self for most of 2025, accruing a 75.3 overall PFF grade with a 69.7 passing mark while being sidelined for parts of five contests. Consequently, Baltimore’s offense was much less efficient, slotting 15th in EPA per play with the 12th-best scoring drive rate.

If Jackson had played even one or two of those showdowns in full, the Ravens likely would have won the AFC North. His absence isn’t an excuse for mistakes that were easily avoidable, but the Ravens don’t feel as though their window is rapidly constricting, either. Keeping Harbaugh and upgrading the roster (i.e., pass rush) for a team that has at least reached the divisional round in the last two seasons feels prudent.

Aaron Glenn, New York Jets

The Jets’ stretch of unbridled failure continued in 2025, concluding 3-14 while ranking 29th or worse in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. It would be easy for the team to reset yet again, but acting with patience toward Glenn seems worthwhile.

Glenn’s team didn’t display a ton of optimism, but that was likely to be expected. Even before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, this Jets roster was one of the worst in the NFL — and coaching could only have mitigated that so much. Having star receiver Garrett Wilson play just 381 snaps didn’t help, either.

The decision by Glenn and new general manager Darren Mougey to sign Justin Fields as a starting quarterback quickly backfired, but Glenn was a coveted head-coaching candidate after the 2024 season for a reason. With a touted quarterback expected to be in tow after the draft, Glenn deserves at least the beginning of 2026 before coming to a final evaluation.

Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers

Having the Packers move on from LaFleur feels rather inconceivable considering his tenure in Green Bay, but his name has been fraught with some doubt going into this offseason. In particular, the team’s recent stretch — losing its last four games to fall to the NFC’s No. 7 seed — have put a damper on a promising season.

Although the Packers’ offensive play-calling came under scrutiny toward the middle of 2025, the team appeared to be peaking prior to Micah Parsons’ torn ACL in Week 15. From Weeks 11-14, Green Bay ranked first in offensive EPA per play, with the Jordan Love and Christian Watson connection fueling wins over the Vikings, Lions and Bears. Further, Green Bay placed sixth in defensive success rate before Week 15.

It’s true that the Packers experienced some inexcusably bad results, including losing to the Browns and Panthers while tying with the Cowboys. But to fire a coach who’s gone 76-40-1 would be an extreme measure, even if he’s only won one playoff game in the last four seasons.

To Be Determined

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC North title in wacky fashion against the Ravens in Week 18, a game that perfectly encapsulates Tomlin’s recent tenure in Pittsburgh. Although the Steelers will host a playoff game for the first time in five seasons, that showdown could have massive implications on his trajectory in the Steel City.

Pittsburgh’s revamped roster — with the likes of Aaron Rodgers, D.K. Metcalf, Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith and the now-released Darius Slay — didn’t provide much more stability. The inconsistent Steelers ended the regular season 10-7 but finished 18th in offensive EPA per play and 17th in defensive EPA per play while sitting 16th in PFF’s Power Ratings. Flashes of brilliance emerged from the team’s two-headed run game and a talented defense, but late-game collapses and a poorly designed pass game structure inhibited the team’s ability to contend.

If Tomlin and the Steelers fail to beat the Texans on Monday night — extending their drought of eight straight seasons without a playoff win — it would effectively nullify any goodwill after the team’s division crown, which was already unnecessarily difficult to acquire because of a Week 17 loss in Cleveland. While reports claim that Pittsburgh won’t fire the well-respected Tomlin, more fuel could be added to a growing fire suggesting that he may step away.

Sean McDermott, BuffaloBills

Since McDermott’s arrival in Buffalo, the Bills have become a juggernaut. Buffalo has won five AFC East titles and made the postseason in seven straight seasons. At the same time, it feels as though the ultimate goal has yet to be realized.

Even though the Bills relinquished the division lead to the upstart Patriots in 2025, they still enjoyed a season of phenomenal football. Buffalo ranked third in offensive EPA per play and success rate behind Josh Allen, James Cook and a strong offensive line. On top of that, its defense ranked 12th in EPA per play while reaping the rewards of signing Joey Bosa and developing Cole Bishop.

At the same time, Buffalo’s run defense has remained a problem — sitting 30th in EPA per rush and tied for 27th in PFF run-defense grade. The team’s defense has consistently let down Allen and the offense in the postseason, and that worry still haunts entering wild-card weekend.

In one of the weaker AFC playoff fields in recent memory, the Bills have maybe their best shot in the McDermott-Allen era to finally reach the promised land of the Super Bowl. If they don’t, then the noise about McDermott’s viability as a head coach will only rightfully grow louder — especially with Allen entering his age-30 season in 2026.

Fuente original: Leer en Football - America
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