College Football: Likelihood that the 12 playoff teams make it back in 2026

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Among the 12 College Football Playoff teams in 2025, only four were holdovers from the 2024 season: Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Georgia.

Here’s a look at how we’d categorize the chances for each of this year’s 12 teams making it back in 2026. 

Indiana Hoosiers: High

The reigning national champions are losing plenty of key contributors to the 2026 NFL Draft, namely their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza. However, there’s little reason to doubt Indiana’s ability to at least make it back to the 12-team field in 2026. 

Curt Cignetti is arguably the best coach in college football and he brought in a stellar transfer portal class once again, headlined by TCU quarterback Josh Hoover. That’s in addition to key players returning to the Hoosiers, such as left tackle Carter Smith and wide receiver Charlie Becker. Indiana has made the College Football Playoff in each of its two years under Cignetti and should feel great about its chances to return in 2026.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes: High

Miami may have come up just short in the National Championship Game, but the Hurricanes are poised to make another deep run in 2026. Even with Carson Beck heading off to the NFL, Miami still may have upgraded under center by bringing in Duke’s Darian Mensah from the transfer portal. He led the Power Four with 3,951 passing yards this past season.

He’ll have a terrific group of skill players to work with, such as wide receiver Malachi Toney, running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and wide receiver Cooper Barkate. The Hurricanes have some questions along their offensive line after losing three starters, but the defensive line should once again be loaded. Plus, Miami plays in easily the weakest of the Power Four conferences, as there wasn’t another ACC school even in the top 15 of PFF’s way-too-early top 25. And the ACC champion is guaranteed a playoff spot this year based on the playoff’s new rules.

Oregon Ducks: High

Oregon made a run to the semifinals this past season and entered the 2024 playoff as the No. 1 overall seed. The 2026 team that head coach Dan Lanning is putting together may be his best yet, though. 

It starts with the somewhat surprising return of quarterback Dante Moore, who likely would’ve been a top-three pick in the 2026 NFL Draft if he declared. The Ducks also brought back two of its three leading rushers, three of its five top pass catchers and also returns star wide receiver Evan Stewart from injury. Oregon’s entire starting defensive line is back, a unit that may be the best in college football. The secondary has serious talent too in the form of cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. and transfer safety Koi Perich. 

Lanning must replace both coordinators, but he has hit home runs seemingly every time he has done so. The Ducks ranked as PFF’s No. 1 team in our way-too-early rankings.

Ohio State Buckeyes: High

Ohio State couldn’t quite defend its 2024 national championship, getting bounced in the quarterfinal round of this past playoff. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes have a great chance of winning their second national title in three years next season.

It starts with quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who may be the two best players in college football. Running back Bo Jackson is back after an impressive freshman season, and the offensive line returns four starters. The defense lost some superstars, but defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is one of the best in the nation, and there is still serious talent on that side of the ball.

Ohio State hasn’t finished outside the top-seven of the final playoff committee’s ranking since its inception in 2014. The Buckeyes missing a 12-team playoff would be considered nothing short of a disastrous season by their standards.  

Georgia Bulldogs: High

Like Ohio State, history is on Georgia’s side. The Bulldogs have won at least 11 games in eight straight seasons, excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Georgia has won two national championships under head coach Kirby Smart and three of the last four SEC titles. 

The Bulldogs should once again be a top contender to win their conference in 2026. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is back following an impressive 81.3 PFF grade in his first year as a starter. Running back Nate Frazier will take plenty of the pressure off of his shoulders, and Georgia’s defense has some serious talent like safety KJ Bolden.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: High

Texas Tech burst onto the scene in 2025 by winning its first Big 12 Championship and finishing with a program-record 12 wins. The Red Raiders are no one-year wonder, though, thanks to the work they’ve put in the transfer portal. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby is the prize of their class this year and is a top-10 signal-caller in America. Texas Tech has one of the best backfields in America to complement him in addition to another loaded defense. 

The Red Raiders are once again the favorite to win the Big 12 in 2026.

Ole Miss Rebels: Medium

The biggest question surrounding Ole Miss right now is the eligibility status of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. His hearing for a preliminary injunction against the NCAA is set for February 12th after both his waiver and appeal were denied. If he also loses that injunction, they’d fall down to “Low” on this list with Auburn transfer Deuce Knight taking over under center. 

Regardless, Ole Miss still has one of the best running backs in college football in Kewan Lacy, and the defense should be improved with some key transfers coming in. 

Texas A&M Aggies: Medium

There are certainly reasons to feel optimistic about Texas A&M’s chances of making it back to the playoff. Wide receiver Mario Craver is a rising star at the position and leading rusher Rueben Owens is back as well. The defense lost plenty of pieces, but head coach Mike Elko has proven to be an excellent coach on that side of the ball.

The biggest question surrounds quarterback Marcel Reed and how he develops as a passer with a new offensive coordinator in Holmon Wiggins. He was only on target for 53% of his passes in 2025, which was just 124th in the FBS. 

Oklahoma Sooners: Medium

Oklahoma is very similar to Texas A&M in that its defense should once again be strong, while the offense has some skill-position players to get excited about. Nevertheless, like the Aggies, it’s all about the quarterback. John Mateer endured an injury-riddled 2025 season and only had a 64.0 PFF grade, which was tied for 124th in the country. 

Alabama Crimson Tide: Low

After missing the College Football Playoff during his first season as head coach, Kalen DeBoer led Alabama to the quarterfinals this year before losing to Indiana. The Crimson Tide enter 2026 with plenty of questions, though. They’ll have a new quarterback in either Austin Mack or Keelon Russell due to Ty Simpson leaving for the NFL. They also lost two of their top-three receivers, four starters from the offensive line and six starters on defense.  

Tulane Green Wave: Low

With Jon Sumrall leaving for Florida, Tulane promoted Will Hall from passing game coordinator/wide receivers coach to head coach for 2026. The Green Wave did a solid job in the transfer portal, especially on offense. However, it’s a wide-open race for the Group of Five playoff spot, and Tulane’s chances are low with a brand-new head coach.

James Madison Dukes: Low

Like Tulane, James Madison will also have a new head coach after Bob Chesney left for UCLA. Billy Napier will now lead the Dukes after getting fired by Florida. Napier will have to replace plenty of key players that JMU lost to either the draft or the transfer portal. Both James Madison and Tulane are still top contenders for that playoff spot, but the competition will be fierce for that single spot.