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We have finally made it to the National Championship Game in college football, as the Indiana Hoosiers and Miami (FL) Hurricanes will compete for the title. Both programs had vastly different paths to get to the title game.
Indiana has been the best team in college football all year and is still undefeated with a perfect 15-0 record. The Hoosiers will be playing in the National Championship Game for the first time and will try to win the national title for the first time in program history. Head coach Curt Cignetti has spearheaded this miraculous turnaround for a program that still has the second-worst win percentage of any Power Four program (42.4%).
Miami has a much richer history, totaling five national championships to its name. However, the Hurricanes had a much rockier road to this year’s title game. They lost twice in the regular season to Louisville and SMU, and they were the last team selected for an at-large berth in the playoff. Miami will have the advantage of playing in its home stadium for the national championship and is playing in the title game for the first time in 23 years.
In this preview, we’ll be going over the matchups to watch in both the run game and pass game for each offense and defense. And of course, we’ll be predicting who will ultimately win the national championship.
No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Miami, Monday, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Indiana’s pass game against Miami’s pass defense (Max): Can the best pass-rush in the country rattle the Heisman Trophy winner?
Miami has been the best team in the country in terms of getting after opposing quarterbacks this season. The Hurricanes lead the FBS with a 92.5 PFF team pass-rushing grade, while their 54 sacks are the most in the nation. Edge defenders Rueben Bain Jr. (80) and Akheem Mesidor (63) are second and fifth, respectively, in pressures this year. Miami had at least a 40% pressure rate in its last two playoff victories over Ole Miss and Ohio State, a major reason why the Hurricanes emerged victorious in both contests.
Indiana’s pass protection has been strong this year, placing 16th in team pass-blocking grade (78.2). One of the players that’ll be tasked with blocking Bain and Mesidor, left tackle Carter Smith, is second among all offensive linemen in the nation with a 93.7 pass-blocking grade. However, the Hoosiers have had some issues against some of the better pass-rushing teams they’ve played against and are only 73rd in the nation with a 12.4% knockdown rate allowed. This year’s Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Fernando Mendoza, has mitigated that, as his 71.7 PFF passing grade under pressure leads all Power Four signal-callers. Mendoza will need to be that efficient in this game against Miami’s elite pass-rush.
Indiana’s run game against Miami’s run defense (Dalton):Indiana’s offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line
Indiana’s rushing attack is both incredibly simple and wildly efficient. More than 60% of the Hoosiers’ designed rushes utilize man or inside zone concepts. When deploying these concepts, they average 5.8 yards per carry, the 17th-best mark in the nation. The onus will be on the Hoosiers’ offensive line, which ranks 10th in the nation as a unit in run-blocking grade, to be the more physically dominant trench unit in this game.
However, Indiana’s offensive line will face arguably its biggest challenge of the season in Miami’s defensive line. The Hurricanes’ defensive line, led by future first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr., ranks third in the nation in run-defense grade. When facing man or inside zone concepts specifically, Miami has allowed just 4.1 yards per carry this season. This game promises to be a physical battle, particularly when Indiana attempts to run the ball downhill.
Miami’s pass game against Indiana’s pass defense (Dalton):Will Miami be able to rack up production after the catch?
Led by superstar true freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney, Miami has been able to consistently produce yards after the catch all season. Only two teams have racked up more yards after the catch this season than Miami. The Hurricanes' pass catchers also rank inside the top five units in missed tackles forced after the catch. That production has been the biggest reason that Carson Beck has recorded a minuscule 7.6-yard average depth of target, a bottom-25 mark in the nation.
Indiana has done an excellent job of preventing production after the catch all season. The Hoosiers have allowed just 4.8 yards after catch per completion this season, the 14th-lowest mark in the nation. The Hoosiers have also missed just 42 tackles in coverage, less than three per game, all season. If Indiana can slow down Malachi Toney and Keelan Marion, in particular, after the catch, the Hoosiers are likely to create big advantages in coverage by forcing Carson Beck to throw the football downfield more often than he would like.
Miami’s run game against Indiana’s run defense (Max): Miami’s downhill run scheme against one of the most fundamentally sound run defenses in college football
Miami’s run game is predicated on moving people with its dominant offensive line and getting right downhill on defenses. The Hurricanes are 12th in run-blocking grade while running the man (duo) concept 28% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the Power Four.
It’s a concept predicated on double teams on the interior to create vertical displacement while the running back (Mark Fletcher Jr.) reads the middle linebacker. If the linebacker is sucked up inside, Fletcher can make a cut to the outside. If the linebacker stays outside, Fletcher can jam the ball up the middle behind his double-team blocks. His 92.0 rushing grade this year is sixth among all backs in America, while his 426 rushing yards on duo lead all Power Four running backs.
Indiana has been outstanding with its run fits on defense this year, placing third in the country in both team run-defense grade (94.4) and team tackling grade (90.9). The Hoosiers have also been outstanding at defending the duo concept, placing seventh in yards per attempt allowed (2.6) and fourth in explosive run rate allowed (1.7%). The spotlight will be on Indiana’s linebackers in Rolijah Hardy, Isaiah Jones and Aiden Fisher. Hardy, in particular, is fourth among all linebackers in the nation with a 91.2 run-defense grade.
Predictions
While the Hurricanes have the home-field advantage and are the most dominant team in the country in the trenches, the Hoosiers are still the most complete and best-coached team in college football. Indiana captures the first national championship in program history, and head coach Curt Cignetti completes the single greatest program turnaround in college football history.
Miami’s defense gives the Hurricanes a puncher’s chance, but Indiana is the best team in the nation. Fernando Mendoza works around Miami’s elite pass rush and makes enough big throws to pull away, while the Hurricanes struggle to find explosive plays against the one defense that can match their own.