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Not many teams, when faced with the situation the Denver Broncos currently find themselves in, would be given even the slightest chance of winning the AFC Championship Game and progressing to Super Bowl LX.
While Denver’s offensive output in Bo Nix‘s absence remains unknown, its defensive prowess keeps the team firmly in the mix for the Lombardi Trophy.
It starts with edge defender Nik Bonitto, who is in the best form of his career right now. Bonitto posted his third consecutive pass-rushing grade above 80.0 on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. His 90.3 overall PFF grade since Week 15 ranks third behind Will Anderson Jr. and Aidan Hutchinson.
Bonitto will be up against a New England Patriots offensive line that allowed Will Anderson Jr. to wreak havoc last week with three sacks on four pressures. While 79% of Anderson’s regular-season snaps were against right tackles, Houston Texans head coach Demeco Ryans switched things up in the divisional round by aligning Anderson up against the left tackle on 17 of his 24 pass-rushing snaps.
This was done to take advantage of the Patriots’ rookie left tackle, Will Campbell, who was no match for Anderson's ferocity. Campbell finished the game with a 16.5 PFF pass blocking grade — easily his worst outing of the season.
Now, Campbell will be tasked with handling Bonitto. Unlike the Texans, the Broncos won’t have to make any adjustments to their defensive alignment. Bonitto lines up across from left tackles 87% of the time, as 70 of Bonitto’s 78 pressures this season have come when he’s situated to the quarterback’s left.
The Broncos will feel they have the edge on Drake Maye’s blindside, but this young MVP candidate has been winning with his eyes all season. It’s what’s in front of Maye that really counts.
Former undrafted free agent Ja’Quan McMillian is also in the best form of his life right now, cemented by his remarkable game-sealing contested interception on Josh Allen.
Over his last three games, McMillian has allowed six receptions for a grand total of -5 air yards. In other words, the only situations where receivers are getting open around McMillian are on designed screen passes
McMillian has been responsible for just two 20-plus-yard completions over his last 230 coverage snaps. Since the penultimate week of the regular season, McMillian’s 90.7 PFF coverage grade and 16.7 passer rating allowed both rank first among all cornerbacks.
If the Broncos are to keep pace with Maye’s Patriots and whomever they would end up facing in Super Bowl LX, there’s no question that they will need more out of star cornerback Pat Surtain II.
The fifth-highest paid cornerback in the NFL hasn’t been bad by any means, but given his elite play in previous seasons, his 70.3 overall PFF grade this season leaves a little to be desired.
While Surtain has been battling injury throughout this stretch, there was optimism that the extended break afforded by Denver’s bye week would see him back to being his best. That didn’t exactly prove to be the case as he surrendered a 142.7 passer rating in coverage versus the Bills — ironically, his highest passer rating allowed since last season’s playoff loss against the Bills.
Although Drake Maye has been excellent at cutting through zone coverage all season, he has looked slightly more questionable when faced with man coverage. The Patriots don’t possess elite separators who can win outright versus press-man coverage — a strategy Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph frequently employs.
Maye’s 64.1 PFF passing grade versus man coverage this season ranks 22nd out of 32 quarterbacks. It’s a far cry from Maye’s 90.7 PFF grade versus zone coverage this year, which ranks second, behind fellow MVP candidate Matthew Stafford.
It makes a lot of sense for Joseph to implement a man-heavy coverage approach on Sunday afternoon. His 32.8% man coverage usage on the season ranks second, behind only the Cleveland Browns.
Beyond just McMillian and Surtain, the Broncos have a litany of reputable man-to-man coverage defenders, including strong safety Talanoa Hufanga. In his first season with the Broncos, Hufanga has been the fourth-highest graded safety in the NFL versus man coverage, and his six forced incompletions in man-to-man defense are tied for the most of any safety.
Players such as Hufanga, Bonitto and McMillian may rightfully garner the majority of the attention as Denver gets set to host its first AFC Championship Game in 11 years, but this Broncos team is littered with crucial contributors in all three phases.
Perhaps none of these players is more overlooked than special teams ace Devon Key, who hadn’t played a defensive snap all game when he was called onto the field with 16 seconds remaining in the first half versus the Bills to man the middle of a prevent defense look.
Ever the opportunist, Key leaped on a loose fumble and spotted the Broncos an extra three points to extend their lead to 10 heading into the half. Those points would prove essential for the Broncos to hold off Buffalo’s late rally and make it to overtime.
Key played just three defensive snaps in the divisional round. It brings his snap tally on the season to just 78. While Key has been lauded for locating the fumbled ball on one of his few snaps as a safety, his role within this team typically starts and ends on special teams.
His 411 special teams snaps are the second most of any player in the league, but beyond just snap count, Key’s special teams versatility jumps off the screen.
Key plays every single kickoff snap, whether in coverage or protection. He has also been on the field for every single punt this season — for both the Broncos and their opponents.
When the Broncos are fielding punts, Key has played everywhere from the jammer/vise position to hold-up snaps, punt return blocking and even a handful of punt rushing snaps. If that wasn’t enough, Key is also a fundamental piece of Denver’s field goal block unit. This versatility and quality play in all phases earned Key recognition as the NFL’s only first-team All-Pro special teamer.
Perhaps most impressive of all, Key hasn’t committed a single penalty all season. He boasts an elite 89.9 PFF special teams grade, and his 84.6 defensive grade is more than respectable in a limited sample size.
Key is just one example of what got the Denver Broncos here, and why they remain alive even without their starting quarterback. Without Bo Nix, the Broncos cannot afford to embroil themselves in any shootouts.
Against a Patriots team led by an unquestionably talented quarterback who thrives when the picture is clean, Denver’s ability to disrupt Maye’s timing, get physical on the perimeter and consistently win on early downs can keep their Super Bowl dreams within reach.
Winning a championship without your starting quarterback is obviously not the preferred path, but history has shown it is not impossible. Denver’s defense is capable of stealing possessions and spotting their offense three points a handful of times each game.
Meanwhile, their special teams unit will continue to dictate field position and afford Jarrett Stidham some additional breathing room. While Denver’s offense will need to contribute to the party in some shape or form, Broncos fans should feel optimistic that their defense matches up well with every team remaining in the dance.