- Where to find value: Although history is somewhat bleak, positions like tackle and edge defender have panned out better for market-topping deals.
- 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
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The start of NFL free agency is now under two weeks away, when the legal tampering period opens on March 9. Potentially the best part of the first few days of craziness: Watching big-ticket names receive contracts with numbers that prompt a bulging of the eyes.
For the best players on the market — like George Pickens, Trey Hendrickson, Tyler Linderbaum, Devin Lloyd and others this year — it seems like a guarantee that their next deals will all exceed at least $20 million per year. After all, that’s the innate price tag that comes with All-Pro accolades and grading as one of the foremost players at one’s position.
While teams and fans alike may (and should) become jubilant in adding these uber-talented players, their price points can become tough to swallow. Indeed, as the last few seasons reveal, these contracts are far more hit-and-miss than front offices than would probably like to admit.
Let’s rewind to last offseason, a six-month window that witnessed multiple wild trades and big swings on the free-agent market. Organizations weren’t shy in capitalizing on record cap space, as 25 players signed a contract worth $15 million or more per season. Some, like the Vikings, Patriots and Giants, even doled out multiple such deals in the same spring.
A myriad of these deals panned out incredibly well. Sam Darnold (79.9 PFF passing grade) finished the year as the eighth-best quarterback by overall PFF grade en route to winning the Super Bowl with the Seahawks, while Stefon Diggs (82.7 overall PFF grade) and Davante Adams (84.8) were offensive anchors on teams reaching the conference championships. Even the Saints’ unexpected $51 million investment in Chase Young was rewarded with a career-high 86.3 PFF pass-rushing grade.
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Yes, one season is a small sample size. But even one bad free-agency window can have far-reaching implications. Just ask former Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, whose lucrative deals for Will Fries (61.8 overall PFF grade), Byron Murphy (58.5), Jonathan Allen (53.2) and Javon Hargrave (68.0) contributed to him losing his job.
Moreover, extending the window of deals worth $15 million or more to prior years does shine light on several major hits — but also reveals tremendous amounts of buyer’s remorse.
Since 2021, contracts for players like Trent Williams, Trey Hendrickson, Joe Thuney, Danielle Hunter and Jessie Bates III have all played out tremendously, with their new organizations reaping All-Pro or Pro Bowl berths and generally fantastic team success.
Players Signing $15M-AAV Contracts to Earn a 70.0 Overall Grade, 2021-25
PlayerSeasonOverall PFF GradeSnapsOriginal Contract SignedDavante Adams202584.87882/$44MStefon Diggs202582.77493/$63.5MDanielle Hunter2024, 202584.6, 89.9859, 8192/$49MLeonard Williams202487.17503/$64.5MJonathan Greenard202481.15594/$76MDerek Carr202485.66044/$150MJessie Bates III2023, 202490.6, 80.21,134, 1,0954/$64MTerron Armstead202489.48215/$75MVon Miller202485.53326/$120MHaason Reddick202284.69263/$45MTrent Williams2022-2591.7, 92.6, 85.6, 91.11,044, 1,013, 649, 1,1126/$138MTrey Hendrickson2022-2582.9, 82.3, 88.1, 82.9732, 742, 823, 2854/$60MJoe Thuney2021, 202481.2, 80.01,394, 1,2885/$80MHowever, the lion’s share of these contracts have fizzled out, some after just one season. More specifically, of the 63 players to sign along the dotted $15 million average annual value line, only 30 reached a 70.0 overall grade while playing at least 500 snaps in at least one season. That figure drops to 15 of 63 (39.5%) for the contingent to accomplish it in two or more campaigns. Along those lines, just 13 of those names (20.6%) achieved an 80.0 grade even one time.
What’s also jarring is the low proportion of players agreeing to these deals that have stayed for long periods of time, or even signed an extension.
Consider Jimmy Garoppolo, who was benched during the first campaign of his three-year, $72.75 million pact with the Raiders — and then cut the next offseason. Or J.C. Jackson, who recorded a 29.0 overall PFF grade on 329 snaps with the Chargers after inking a five-year, $82.5 million contract in 2022. Even Kirk Cousins, who posted a 75.6 PFF passing grade after joining the Falcons on a four-year, $180 million contract, will be cut in March after merely two years.
Naturally, there’s always a major risk with any free-agent contract — especially high-profile ones, which tend to receive more publicity to live up to the hype. After all, teams can’t necessarily afford themselves a chance to reach contender status unless they pony up sums in the top 10 of a positional market. At the same time, recent history reveals that franchises should be wary when handing out such terms, and not just due to bad injury variance.
Based on both last offseason and before, the good news is that some positions tend to age better on these sorts of contracts. Receivers, tackles, edge rushers and quarterbacks yielded better dividends, with multiple players thriving in new homes for multiple seasons. Perhaps that may not come as a shock given that those spots are viewed as “premium” and are less volatile than others like linebacker, running back and cornerback.
If the Cowboys re-sign Pickens and the Ravens retain Linderbaum, both franchises should be ecstatic — even if their new contracts exceed $100 million total. But by the same token, data underscores that the majority of huge deals inked in March probably won’t pan out as intended.