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Miami Dolphins vs. PittsburghSteelers (-3) [Total: 42.5]
Game Overview
The outcome of this Monday night matchup between the Dolphins and Steelers will have far reaching-implications in deciding the AFC playoff picture down the stretch.
The Steelers hold a slim lead atop the hotly contested AFC North, making this a crucial matchup if they hope to maintain control of the division. While this game will take place in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have struggled with consistency at home this season. Pittsburgh holds just a 3-3 record against the spread in its own stadium, including a blowout loss to the Bills in Week 13 that left the home crowd notably displeased with the product on the field.
Pittsburgh’s woes can’t be isolated to one side of the ball like in seasons past, with all-around consistency hard to come by on a week-to-week basis. What hasn’t diminished is the Steelers’ ability to rush the passer, with their 83.0 team PFF pass-rush grade ranking third in the NFL. However, they will have to go this week without the leader of their defense, with T.J. Watt ruled out after suffering a partially collapsed lung at the facility early in the week.
That could prove to be an issue against a Dolphins team that has been surging, holding a 4-0 record (3-1 against the spread) since the start of November. Much of that success can be attributed to a resurgence on the defensive side of the ball for Miami. Over that span, the Dolphins have maintained the fifth-best EPA per play mark in the NFL, while also surrendering the lowest scoring drive percentage (20.9%).
Yet, it’s never that simple when it comes to warm-weather teams traveling in December. The Dolphins' struggles to generate offense in cold, snowy conditions has been a topic of conversation for quite some time. With the forecast in Pittsburgh projecting temperatures below freezing and snow, the elements could play a deciding factor in this matchup.
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Explore Top Player PropsWR D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Click here to explore the PFF Player Prop Tool!Metcalf is coming off an explosive performance in Week 14, where he racked up 148 yards on seven receptions against the Ravens. Yet, he was targeted on over 36% of his routes, an abnormally high rate for the veteran receiver — who has averaged a target on 20.4% of his routes this season. That usage trend resulted in Metcalf going under expectation in five of his past six games, producing 42 yards per game on average.
Click here to explore the PFF Player Prop Tool!He faces a Dolphins defense that has taken immense strides in recent weeks. Over the past four games, Miami has held opposing offenses to the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback (-0.218) in the NFL.
Much of that can be attributed to this defense’s ability to limit production to outside receivers. Entering Week 15, the Dolphins have yielded the third-fewest receiving yards to pass-catchers from outside alignments.
Metcalf draws a difficult matchup this week against Rasul Douglas. The Dolphins' cornerback has played well all season, earning himself a top-12 PFF coverage grade (75.6) at the cornerback position
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