- Demond Claiborne offers receiving specialist value: A sixth-round pick for the Vikings, Claiborne possesses the change-of-direction skills to potentially overtake an aging Aaron Jones in the receiving rotation.
The NFL draft has come and gone. There is now a clear consensus on who should go in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts, but everything after that is largely unpredictable. More than 30 wide receivers were selected, and managers will weigh them differently. Some will prioritize draft capital, others will prioritize landing spots, and others will prioritize pre-draft rankings. Several tight ends were selected early, but most project as blockers rather than receivers. Fewer running backs were selected than usual, and while most were not taken early, positional scarcity could push them up boards.
Here are three running backs projected to go in the third round or later of dynasty rookie drafts based on early consensus rankings. Each has a chance to factor into his team’s rotation as a rookie and provide fantasy value over his first few seasons in the league.
Kaelon Black,San Francisco 49ers
Black has the size and speed of a three-down back. He is near the middle of the pack in height and weight, while his speed, acceleration and change of direction all rate above average compared to running backs in this draft class.
His first concern is the lack of receiving production at Indiana. He averaged a solid 1.38 yards per route run in his final season at James Madison, but he rarely ran routes and was targeted even less frequently after transferring. His snap rate also never exceeded 45%, as he saw the field primarily on passing downs.
Our draft guide noted he is better suited to zone-blocking schemes, and the data supports that: he averaged 5.5 yards per attempt on zone runs compared to 4.7 on gap concepts. The guide also noted that he has occasionally been a half-step late in identifying running lanes when operating in power concepts and that his run game lacks true difference-making creativity.
Black was the only running back selected on Day 2 of the draft and is a strong fit for Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme. San Francisco has used a third- through fifth-round pick on a running back in five of the past six drafts, and the first four have not worked out. There is a real chance Black earns the backup job ahead of Jordan James and Isaac Guerendo. Shanahan has said he wants to get Christian McCaffrey help, and Black could fill that role. Given McCaffrey’s injury history, Black would be a strong fantasy option if he misses time, which has happened in multiple seasons.
Adam Randall,Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry has been one of the biggest running backs in the NFL throughout his career, listed at 6-foot-2 and 252 pounds on the Ravens’ website. Baltimore drafted Randall, who measured 6-foot-3 and 232 pounds at the combine. A former wide receiver with limited experience at running back, Randall could see a sizable workload if Henry misses time.
The Ravens used Henry and Keaton Mitchell as their early-down backs last season, with Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali handling receiving work. Baltimore let Mitchell walk in free agency, and Randall was the team’s only addition at the position.
Randall makes this list because he appears to be one of the few handcuffs drafted on Day 3. Nicholas Singleton and Demond Claiborne project as third on their depth charts, while Emmett Johnson, Jonah Coleman and Kaytron Allen are expected to be part of committees. Mike Washington Jr. will serve as a handcuff for the Las Vegas Raiders, but he is likely to be selected in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts. If Henry misses time this season, Randall would be the favorite to lead the team in carries.
Demond Claiborne, Minnesota Vikings
Claiborne is a small, speedy running back with great change-of-direction ability. Our draft guide compared him to Justice Hill and mentioned his upside as a receiving running back. He is not expected to become a three-down back, but there are plenty of receiving specialists at the position who have found fantasy value. For example, Kenneth Gainwell finished last season as RB16 while ranking fourth in receptions (73) and 47th in rushing attempts (114).
Claiborne landed with the Vikings in the sixth round, where he will likely start his career behind Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason on the depth chart. Mason has served more of an early-down role throughout his career, while Jones has played on third downs — and significantly on early downs as well — making Jones his primary competition.
The 31-year-old running back accepted a pay cut to remain with the Vikings, and he has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons. His rushing efficiency and receiving production have both declined in recent years. There is a reasonable chance that Claiborne will be the Vikings’ lead receiving back at some point this season.