Fantasy Football: How to use dynasty draft picks

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

The fantasy football season is (largely) wrapped up for another year. Now, you can finally see where it all went wrong. The good news? In dynasty, there’s always next year. The bad news? There’s always next year.

Part of that hope is rookie draft picks, new lottery tickets that you convince yourself will propel you to a three-peat and total domination of your league.

How one uses their rookie picks is a matter of debate. Do you ship them off Les Snead style? Do you constantly trade back, looking for fallers in the rookie draft and sniffing out great value?

Do you stay put and take the best player available? Or are you in a total rebuild and have rookie draft picks falling out of your pockets?

The point is, there is no one right way to use them. But there are some good rules of thumb to follow.

1. Buy and Sell Rookie Picks at the Right Time

Most managers overpay for picks in the offseason or right before the rookie draft. That’s when the rookie hype machine is at full throttle and everyone has visions of Makai Lemon catching 100 balls from Cam Ward.

But, as outlined in our “what to expect” series, it’s not as straightforward as drafting the generational talent out of college.

Marvin Harrison Jr., for example, has not hit the heights many thought he would, with WR30 and WR49 finishes in standard-scoring PPR leagues. He was likely taken in the top three of the 2024 rookie draft.

But the best time to acquire rookie picks? During the season.

Once the fantasy regular season starts, rookie picks are at their lowest value. They’re abstract. They don’t score points.

The key is to target contenders who are starting to wobble. Maybe their RB1 just tore an ACL. Maybe their quarterback room is falling apart.

If they think they’re still in the hunt, they might give you a future first for a flex-worthy wide receiver or running back who can help them survive. They see a title window; you see a crumbling foundation.

2. Rebuilding? Know Your Timeline

If your roster is bad — and not just “missed the playoffs” bad but “needs a fire sale” bad — your rookie picks are your most important tool. But the way you use them depends entirely on your timeline.

A team that’s just a draft or two away from contending should start thinking about player targets, packaging late-round capital into earlier picks and preparing to turn draft picks into production.

For example, with the volatility of the tight end position, you’re perhaps best flipping a pick or two for a proven producer, such as Trey McBride (84.8 PFF receiving grade) or even Jake Ferguson, who logged 100 targets for the Cowboys this season, notching 600 yards and eight touchdowns. 

But if you’re multiple years away, if your roster has no cornerstone pieces and nothing resembling a starting lineup, then the focus shifts to volume. You want more picks, more shots and more time.

That means being willing to sell off anything that isn’t a part of your next competitive window. A 28-year-old RB putting up 17 points per game isn’t helping you if you’re three years out. Flip him. 

Javonte Williams entered the season as a low-end RB2 in fantasy after an underwhelming end to his time with the Cowboys.

Yet, through the first month of the season, he was the RB6 and the sixth-highest graded rusher (77.9) while displaying his old explosion with seven carries of 10-plus yards.

Williams finished the season as the RB12, but his stock was never higher than in that first month. If you’re rebuilding, you need to flip those veterans when they’re on a hot streak. Don’t push your luck.

And don’t rush to consolidate those picks too early. When your team is miles from competing, your rookie picks should be spent on upside, not safety. Take swings. Draft guys who could blow up. If they miss, you’ll be drafting early again anyway.

3. Talent, But Also Purpose

“Best Player Available” is a great motto until you’ve drafted five wide receivers in the first round over the past three years and your RB1 is still AJ Dillon.

Drafting BPA makes sense in a vacuum. But fantasy football doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Your roster, your timeline and your league format all shape what “best” really means.

If you're contending, rookie running backs are often the best value — especially highly drafted ones, as outlined in our “what to expect from a first-round running backs” piece.

They can often produce early, they burn hot and their career arcs are short. Draft one who’s ready to start in Week 1, and you’ve got instant production. Even if he flames out in three years, that might be all you need.

Even Ashton Jeanty, who logged a 73.1 PFF rushing grade (22nd out of 29 qualified running backs), did enough in a terrible situation with the Las Vegas Raiders, who finished the 2025 campaign with a 53.0 PFF run-blocking grade and a 56.9 PFF pass-blocking grade (30th and 29th in the NFL, respectively), to be ranked as the RB11.

If you're rebuilding, wide receivers tend to hold their value better. They take longer to break out, but once they do, they stick. The best example is Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

He logged a slightly-above-average 63.9 PFF receiving grade in his 2023 rookie campaign. That increased to 83.5 last season before he exploded with an elite 93.1 PFF receiving grade in the 2025 regular season.

In fantasy football, that translates to going from the WR48 in his rookie season to the WR10 last term and the WR2 in 2025 — and he’s still only 23. So, even if your rebuild takes three years, he’s still going to be elite.

Quarterbacks and tight ends are trickier, but in superflex or TE-premium formats, scarcity makes them valuable by default. Just know that the leash is longer, and the bust rate is higher.

As outlined in our “what to expect from a No. 1 overall quarterback” article, expect low-to-medium QB2 production from a rookie signal-caller. However, the hit rate on quarterbacks drops if you’re picking ones who were selected outside of the first round in the real NFL draft.

It’s also the position that can lose its value the fastest. Take Michael Penix Jr. Entering the 2025 offseason, his stock was relatively high. His three-game stretch at the back end of 2024 saw him produce nine big-time throws (behind only Bryce Young) and a 10.5-yard average depth of target (behind only C.J. Stroud.

Now? His value is on its knees. An uninspiring season as the Falcons‘ starting quarterback before it was cut short by another serious knee injury has left his value at its floor, though not yet in the category of Anthony Richardson Sr. or J.J. McCarthy.

The bottom line is: You have to understand your league to know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em. If you’re rebuilding, capitalize on a hot streak of your aging veteran and flip them to a team in a win-now window for some draft capital or riskier younger players.

If you’re looking to push all your chips into the middle of the table, look for stability at unstable positions so you’ve got the solutions to multiple problems. And worry about the state of the roster later if you have to. That’s a problem for the future, championship-winning you.