Fantasy Football: Top 5 risers and fallers from 2026 NFL coaching changes

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The Los Angeles Rams promoted Nate Scheelhaase to offensive coordinator on Friday, closing the door on all of the head coaching and offensive coordinator changes of the offseason. In total, 10 teams changed head coaches and 21 changed offensive coordinators. These changes will have a notable impact on who these teams target in free agency and the draft, but they will also have an impact on the players currently on each roster.

Here are the 10 players who will be notably impacted by the coaching change, and what it means for their fantasy value going forward.

Risers

1. RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Five running backs averaged over 20 touches per game last season. Four finished among the top six in fantasy points last season, and the other was Irving, who missed seven games due to injury and wasn’t playing as effectively as in his rookie season, but the touches were there.

Josh Grizzard was one-and-done as the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator, but luckily, he was replaced by Zac Robinson, who spent the previous two seasons as the Atlanta Falcons‘ offensive coordinator. He coached Bijan Robinson, who is one of two running backs with 20 or more touches in each of the last two seasons.

Robinson has already spoken highly of Irving, comparing him to Robinson. He mentioned Irving's passing game work before the run game, and Robinson was among the top three running backs in receptions each of the last two seasons. Irving has an 87.4 receiving grade over the last two seasons, ranking sixth among running backs with 50 or more targets. Irving’s receptions per game should increase somewhere between one and two receptions per game in Robinson’s offense.

2. RB Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles moved on from offensive coordinator Greg Roman in favor of former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, whose offense highlighted speed more than any other offense in recent seasons. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert both rank among the top 12 running backs in max speed on offensive plays over the last four seasons, per NGS tracking data. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill similarly rank top 12 among wide receivers, while Jonnu Smith and Darren Waller are among the top-eight tight ends.

Hampton ranks 22nd out of 97 qualifying running backs. His primary competition for touches on the roster is Kimani Vidal, who ranks 65th. While there is a chance the Chargers could try to find a faster running back in free agency or the draft, there are enough other needs that it likely won’t make sense to prioritize a running back who could take the starting job from Hampton.

McDaniel is from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree that utilizes a high rate of outside zone runs. Miami had the third-highest outside zone rate since McDaniel was hired in 2022 (41% of run plays). The Chargers ran outside zone on 18% of runs last season, tied for fourth-lowest. Hampton earned an 86.1 PFF run grade on his 33 outside zone runs, making it his highest graded run concept. Vidal had a 56.3 PFF run grade on his 38 outside zone runs last season.

While Hampton would ideally be a little faster to match the speed McDaniel is used to, the Chargers similarly don’t have the wide receivers or tight ends to perfectly match McDaniel’s offense. At the very least, he should be a better fit for McDaniel than he was for Roman.

3. WR D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers

Metcalf’s best season of his career was 2020, in part because he was an effective deep ball receiver, catching 12 deep passes for 480 yards and four touchdowns on deep passes. In 2014, he set a career high in deep targets at 32, catching 16 of them for 489 yards and five touchdowns.

A big reason why Metcalf set a career-low in receiving yards was a lack of deep targets. He received a career-low 18 targets, catching only six of them for 210 yards. There is a chance that the Steelers bring back Aaron Rodgers, where the physical limitations of the 42-year-old quarterback continue to limit Metcalf’s deep targets. However, if Pittsburgh has a younger quarterback, that could mean big things for Metcalf.

The Steelers added Mike McCarthy as their head coach, and McCarthy’s offenses have typically featured several deep passes. During his time with the Dallas Cowboys, Dallas ranked fourth in deep targets to wide receivers, and that was similarly true for McCarthy’s time with the Green Bay Packers. If the Steelers have a new quarterback, it will likely be someone with a willingness to throw deep to match McCarthy’s style, which would be good news for Metcalf’s fantasy value.

4. WR Chimere Dike, Tennessee Titans

Dike was Tennessee's fourth-round pick in 2025. He earned the lead slot role for Tennessee early in the season and was the Titans' highest graded wide receiver among those with at least 300 offensive snaps. He ranked eighth among all wide receivers in routes out of the slot at 286, but his 17.8% targets per route were third-lowest among the top 10 wide receivers with the most slot routes.

Tennessee moved on from its coaching staff, adding defensive-minded head coach Robert Salah and former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll as its offensive coordinator. The Giants ranked in the top 10 in targets to wide receivers out of the slot from 2022-2025. Similarly, when he was the offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills from 2018-2021, they also ranked in the top 10 in targets to slot wide receivers.

As long as the Titans don’t bring in Daboll’s previous slot wide receiver, Wan’Dale Robinson, Dike should remain the Titans' slot receiver and see a notable increase in targets.

5. TE Harold Fannin, Cleveland Browns

Fannin finished his rookie season with 186.4 PPR points, ranking sixth-best among all tight ends. He accomplished this by ranking fourth in targets but only 11th in PFF receiving grade among those with 50 or more targets. He was likely going to be a top-12 tight end option regardless of his new coach, in part thanks to David Njoku‘s likely departure, but he also seemed likely to regress some.

Luckily, Todd Monken is his new head coach. Monken has been an offensive coordinator for several teams with varying quality at tight end, but his teams have consistently ranked near the top in touchdowns to tight ends. From 2016-2018, as the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator, their team ranked second in touchdowns to tight ends, led by Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. The Browns in 2019, with Monken, were fourth, led by Ricky Seals-Jones and Demetrius Harris. His Georgia Bulldogs were seventh among Power-Five teams, largely thanks to Brock Bowers. The Baltimore Ravens ranked first from 2023 to 2025, with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely leading the way.

Fannin’s target rate may slightly decrease, particularly if the Browns select a wide receiver in the first round of the draft, but he should see an uptick in touchdowns to make up for that.

Fallers

1. RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner is a two-time Pro Bowl running back who finished among the top-15 running backs in fantasy points per game in both 2023 and 2024. He only played three games last season before an ankle injury ended his season.  He will be 31 years old before the start of the 2026 season, and it seems unlikely he will remain in Arizona.

The Cardinals added Mike LaFleur as their new head coach. He had been the Rams' offensive coordinator. For the last three seasons, Los Angeles used more man-run concepts than any other team. They used man on 40% of their runs, while no other team was above 30% over the last three seasons. The Cardinals have been right around league average at 17%.

Conner has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry on man runs, compared to Trey Benson‘s 5.3. Both running backs average 4.8 yards per carry on all other kinds of runs over the last three seasons. Conner has a 75.0 PFF run grade on man runs compared to 91.9 on all other run concepts. Conner’s age and injury history are working against him. The Cardinals can save $7.6 million in cap space by releasing Conner. The new coaching staff makes it even more likely that Conner moves on from Arizona or has a reduced role if he stays.

It’s unlikely Conner will find a new team that will give him 16 or more touches per game like he’s used to seeing every season, given the depth at running back in this free agent class and the limited number of teams in need of a lead running back.

2. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba was the second-best fantasy wide receiver last season. Part of his success is he played like an All-Pro receiver. His 93.2 PFF receiving grade was the second-best among all wide receivers, and there was a significant gap between him and third place. However, part of his success was an exceptionally high target rate. He was targeted on 32.0% of his routes, eighth best among wide receivers with at least 200 routes in the last 20 seasons. He is only the second wide receiver with a rate that high on over 500 routes.

Some regression in his targets per route was inevitable, regardless of the situation. It became even more likely once the team lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Ideally, they would have promoted from within, making it more likely the new coordinator would have followed Kubiak’s offense.

Instead, the team hired Brian Fleury, who spent the last four seasons as a tight ends coach for the San Francisco 49ers. In his six seasons as an offensive assistant with San Francisco, they’ve never had a wide receiver above 26% in targets per route, while Jauan Jennings, in 2024, was the only one above 24%. 

A tight end coach getting promoted to offensive coordinator doesn’t always lead to an increased target rate by the team’s tight ends, but the Seahawks had the eighth-fewest receiving yards by tight ends last season. AJ Barner had the eighth-highest PFF receiving grade by a tight end among those with 50 or more targets, and Elijah Arroyo was the 50th overall pick in the 2025 draft. It wouldn’t be surprising if George Kittle’s former tight end coach gets those tight ends more involved in the offense this year, taking away a few targets from Smith-Njigba.

Smith-Njigba should still be considered a mid-first round pick in redraft leagues and a top pick in dynasty leagues, but the coaching change makes it harder to justify taking Smith-Njigba with a top-three pick in redraft leagues, which could have been the case had Kubiak stayed.

3. WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

Rice finished fourth in fantasy points per game last season at 18.8. He played in eight games, missing the first six games of the season due to suspension, and he missed the final three games due to a concussion. 

Rice only received a 77.2 PFF receiving grade last season. His role in the Chiefs‘ offense has been unique, finishing with an average depth of target between 4.9 and 5.2 yards in each of his three seasons. He’s been a high-volume receiver, making plays after the catch. 

While there is certainly a chance Rice continues in the same role, it’s worth noting that the Chiefs changed offensive coordinators, bringing back Eric Bieniemy. During Bieniemy’s initial run at Kansas City, most of his wide receivers had a 9.0-plus-yard average depth. In his final season with the Chiefs, JuJu Smith-Schuster was the team’s top wide receiver with a 7.1 average depth of target. In his one season as the offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders, Curtis Samuel finished second in targets on the team and also had a 7.1-yard average depth of target. 

We likely see Rice’s role change at least a little bit this season. The fact that he’s ended the last two seasons on injured reserve adds some risk, as do his off-the-field concerns. There is a chance the change in role helps Rice, and he is a top-five wide receiver going forward, but there is a larger chance Rice sees a significant decrease in targets than the other top wide receivers.

4. TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

The problem with McBride is very similar to the problem with Smith-Njigba. While McBride’s targets per route weren’t particularly historic, he ran 695 routes, which was 67 more than any other tight end in a season, leading to 163 targets, and the most receptions by a tight end in a season all time. Some regression is very likely, and the change in coaching staff makes regression even more likely.

McBride’s new head coach is Mike LaFleur, and the new offensive coordinator is Nathaniel Hackett. Neither is familiar with having a fantasy starting tight end during their time as head coach or offensive coordinator. Colby Parkinson was TE17 with the Rams this season, and Tyler Conklin was TE16 with the New York Jets in 2022 in LaFleur’s five seasons as an offensive coordinator. LaFleur was George Kittle’s passing game coordinator at the start of Kittle’s career, so LaFleur has at least some exposure to an elite tight end.

Hackett’s only exposure to a top-15 fantasy tight end season was in 2020 when Robert Tonyan scored 11 touchdowns, scoring six career touchdowns in his other seven career seasons. His tight ends have finished outside of the top 15 in his 10 other seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach.

McBride should still be considered a top-two fantasy tight end this season and potentially the top overall tight end, depending on how things play out with the Cardinals and with Brock Bowers’ Las Vegas Raiders, but the gap between McBride and the rest of the tight ends will be smaller than it was last season.

5. TE Mason Taylor, New York Jets

Taylor was the 42nd overall pick in the 2025 draft. While the Jets' offense struggled for most of the season, Taylor showed some sparks, including back-to-back games of over 60 receiving yards.

The Jets kept head coach Aaron Glenn but made several coaching changes, including adding Frank Reich as the new offensive coordinator. Reich is known for using a committee at tight end. He hasn’t had a tight end over 500 receiving yards in each of his last five seasons as head coach. Eric Ebron was the last tight end to reach over 500 yards in 2018, and that was largely because lead tight end Jack Doyle only played in six games due to injury.

Reich had experience coaching Antonio Gates and Zach Ertz a decade ago, but Ertz averaged two more receptions per game in the year after Reich left, and he coached Gates only near the end of his career, when he stopped receiving 100 targets per season.

There will be plenty of young tight ends to take a chance on this season, but it’s unlikely Taylor will be an option in most normal redraft leagues, given his situation.