Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 15 Recap
- Kyle Pitts: TE1 (No. 1 overall player), 45.6 PPR points
- Ja’Marr Chase: WR6, 23.2 PPR points
- Chris Olave: WR9, 20.5 PPR points
- Adonai Mitchell: WR14, 17.4 PPR points
- Zay Flowers: WR21, 15.8 PPR points
- D.K. Metcalf: WR23, 14.5 PPR points
- Emeka Egbuka: WR38, 10.4 PPR points
- Jaylen Waddle: WR70, 4.6 PPR points
- Ladd McConkey: WR74, 4.0 PPR points
Both the “Route Based Heroes” and “Coach, I Was Open” models have consistently featured Kyle Pitts this season. With Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback and his unwillingness to throw it over the middle of the field or to the tight end position, Pitts was building some heavy positive regression momentum. Most models or methods for fantasy would not be capable of predicting this breakout, or the fact that Pitts was subtly having one of the best 2025 seasons — even if the box score was not showing it.
Kirk Cousins was able to unlock this, and I assume some more big games are possible — even if another 40-plus PPR point game is very unlikely.
Potential Breakouts: Week 16
PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Flowers has been a weekly staple for the model. Per PFF Premium Stats, among players with at least 50 targets, he ranks 14th in receiving PFF grade (78.1), eighth in receiving yards (959) and seventh in yards per route run.
The ceiling has been capped by touchdowns. Flowers and Justin Jefferson are the only players with 99-plus targets and fewer than four touchdowns this season (2 each).
He enters Week 16 with the seventh-best PWOPR, but New England has played the third-highest man-coverage rate over the past month and owns the best team PFF coverage grade in man. Flowers leads the Ravens with a 27.7% THREAT versus man and holds a solid 75.0 PFF grade in that split. If Drake Maye and the Patriots push the pace of the game, a bump in Baltimore’s pass attempts can give Flowers meaningful volume.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants
It has become a theme, but J.J. McCarthy’s accuracy remains the limiting factor for this Vikings offense. He owns a league-worst 51.3% accurate-throw rate for the season among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks and a 55.4% mark over the past five weeks, which ranks 25th of 29 qualifiers.
The Giants have played the seventh-highest man coverage rate over the past month and carry the 10th-best team PFF coverage grade. McCarthy’s accurate-throw rate is 51.1% overall this season, but his “uncatchable inaccurate” rate climbs from a base rate of 22.2% to 29.8% against man. That context makes this a difficult matchup for Jefferson unless McCarthy’s accuracy drastically improves.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
After having a touchdown taken right out of his hands by Jaylon Johnson in the end zone, Jeudy is a prime candidate for positive regression — but enters one of his toughest situational matchups this season.
The Bills have played the second-highest rate of two-high safety defense over the last month, where Jeudy has an abysmal 12.2% THREAT and 53.8 PFF grade. Pair this with the fact the Bills have been one of the top rush funnel defenses, and this will be a very tough matchup for Jeudy to have success.
WR Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Over the last month, Samuel holds a shockingly good predicted targets per route run figure, ranking ninth-best in the NFL. That means that on a per-route basis, he is doing a great job at getting open.
Philadelphia has played a balanced coverage profile over the last month, splitting almost evenly between two-high and single-high, and sits ninth in man coverage rate. Samuel owns the team’s second-best THREAT at 24.4% with a solid 72.2 PFF grade.
WR George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Prior to Week 14, George Pickens only had one game with less than 12.0 PPR points, and that was Week 1. In Weeks 14 and 15, Pickens only scored 8.7 and 6.3, respectively, while earning low-end WR1 PWOPR (.50 and .41, respectively). This kind of production mismatch is exactly what will earn you a spot on the model’s output.
On the season, the Chargers play the seventh-highest rate of zone coverage, but have shifted toward a more man-heavy approach in the last month — playing the 18th-highest rate of zone coverage. Pickens has a very solid 22.6% THREAT in man coverage, but it pales in comparison to CeeDee Lamb — who has a 39.0% THREAT in man coverage.
Per Premium Stats, the Chargers have the seventh-best PFF team coverage grade. With what will likely be a balanced coverage mix, this could be another tough game for Pickens. However, given his recent PWOPR and PFF’s Matchup Tool giving Pickens a good score, there is still plenty of room for an explosive performance.
WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Since returning from injury in Week 8, Christian Watson has had a dominant 0.561 WOPR compared to Romeo Doubs’ 0.424 WOPR in the same timeframe. During this window, their PWOPRs are almost identical, with Watson at 0.485 and Doubs at 0.483.
Per Premium Stats, the Bears rank 16th in team PFF coverage grade and 26th in team PFF pass-rush grade. In the last month, they also place 16th in zone coverage usage and man coverage deployment, making both their coverage approach very balanced.
There is nothing explicitly to Doubs’ advantage or disadvantage in this matchup, but with the need for positive regression, he is still a favorable fantasy asset this week.