Built with the same flexibility and target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">PFF Player Prop Tool, the First Touchdown Finder allows users to filter, sort and isolate the most actionable early-scoring opportunities on the slate.
Familiar layout with powerful filtering
Users can toggle between weeks, filter by player position, adjust price or vig, and even narrow the report to a single game. That flexibility allows bettors to quickly move from a full-slate view to a focused, game-specific breakdown without losing context.
Identifying which team is likely to score first: EPA per play on scripted (first 15) plays
The report begins at the team level by isolating EPA per play on the first 15 offensive snaps — the portion of the game most teams script and where first touchdowns are likely to occur.
Expected points added (EPA) measures how much closer an offense gets to scoring on each play, accounting for down, distance and field position. By focusing only on the first 15 plays, the tool captures early-game efficiency before adjustments and game script begin to take over.
Three columns work in tandem:
- EPA per play generated by the player's offense
- EPA per play allowed by the opposing defense
- The difference between the two
That differential is one of the most valuable components of the report, highlighting games where one offense holds a meaningful early advantage. Some teams start fast and fade. Others build momentum later. This view helps separate those profiles and identify which team is more likely to strike first.
Color coding makes the edges easy to spot without requiring bettors to interpret raw EPA values.
Players who earn opportunities early: First-15 touches and targets
Once team-level scoring likelihood is established, the report shifts to player opportunity.
The First Touchdown Finder tracks touches and targets on those same first 15 offensive plays, showing which players are being leaned on early in the game. Touches combine rushing attempts and receptions, while touch rate contextualizes that usage by snap count.
Target usage goes a step further with adjusted target rate, which is calculated as targets divided by aimed passes. By removing sacks, scrambles, spikes, throwaways and batted passes, this metric provides a more stable view of how often a player is actually targeted when the quarterback throws with intent.
This helps surface players who may not lead the box score but are consistently prioritized early — a key factor when betting on first touchdowns.
High-value opportunities: First-half red-zone usage
Opportunities only matter if they turn into scoring chances.
To bridge that gap, the report uses first-half red-zone carries and targets rather than full-game red-zone usage. First touchdowns overwhelmingly occur early, and isolating first-half data prevents late-game noise from skewing the picture.
This allows bettors to see which players are not only involved early between the 20s but also trusted when drives reach scoring position.
Defensive resistance: Red-zone touchdown rate allowed
Each player is paired with their opponent’s red-zone touchdown rate allowed, showing how often defenses surrender touchdowns once offenses reach the red zone. This creates important nuance: a team may have a strong early EPA edge, but face a defense that stiffens near the goal line — or vice versa.
Seeing offensive opportunity and defensive resistance side by side helps bettors weigh whether early drives are more likely to end in touchdowns or stall out.
Market awareness built in: Best prices and model-identified value
The odds displayed reflect the best available sportsbook price across the market, ensuring bettors aren’t working with stale numbers.
A blue star indicator flags potential value spots where PFF’s data science model identifies an edge versus the market. These indicators don’t replace judgment, but they help quickly narrow the board to bets that warrant deeper consideration.
How it all comes together
The First Touchdown Finder is designed to be used as a step-by-step tool. Start by identifying the team most likely to score first, then narrow the focus to players earning early opportunities. From there, layer in red-zone performance and defensive context before comparing prices to uncover potential value. Instead of guessing who might score first, bettors can anchor their decisions in scripted-play efficiency, early usage and conversion context — all within a single report.