We’re down to two games to determine the Super Bowl 60 matchup — Patriots versus Broncos in the AFC and Rams versus Seahawks in the NFC.
We will again aim to make sense of those two matchups by compiling relevant data in a bulleted, narrative form, hitting on individual game markets and player props that I like, as well as SGP angles.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (+4.5) | 42.5 Total
- This game opened with the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites on the lookahead line before moving out to Patriots -5.5 after news of Bo Nix’s injury. It has seemingly settled at the current 4.5 number.
- I lean toward that line movement being an overreaction, given that Denver’s Super Bowl case in the AFC didn’t start with quarterback performance.
- Their strengths include home-field advantage, a very good defense and a trench edge over most teams in the NFL. All of that is still true.
- Nix ranked 12th among quarterbacks in PFF overall grade this season (the only remaining quarterback not in the top 10), and the Broncos made Jarrett Stidham one of the highest-paid backup quarterbacks in the NFL when they signed him.
- I lean toward that line movement being an overreaction, given that Denver’s Super Bowl case in the AFC didn’t start with quarterback performance.
- The Patriots' defensive front has gotten the chance to tee off on two of the weaker offensive lines in the NFL through their first two playoff games.
- It’s a limited sample, but Stidham has a respectable 76.2 PFF passing grade and is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt in stints with the Raiders and Broncos since 2022 when throwing from a clean pocket.
- The Broncos have also been one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL this season in neutral situations.
- The Patriots' run defense at full strength (Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and others healthy) has been one of the better units in the NFL.
- We saw this last week against the Texans.
- All of that leads me to Jarrett Stidham passing overs/alts, with the line under 200 yards being one of my favorite prop angles across the two games.
- The Patriots have run man coverage at a top-10 rate this season, and Courtland Sutton has been a top-10 graded wide receiver in the NFL this season against man coverage (88.1).
- Sutton could get a Christian Gonzalez shadow, but that’s not something putting me off of him, given his man coverage splits and my opinion that the Broncos' passing offense is undervalued in this spot.
- New England has also struggled against tight ends this season (25th in yards per coverage snap allowed to tight ends), which could present an opportunity for Evan Engram to surpass his receiving-yardage line at just 21 yards.
- I expect the Patriots will have to lean pass-heavy in this matchup.
- New England's rushing offense ranks 25th in EPA per play
- Denver's run defense ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed
- Stefon Diggs jumps out as the player I want to target in this matchup.
- He ranks in the top 10 in slot receiving yards and will likely avoid Pat Surtain II when in those alignments.
- Diggs also has the fifth-highest PFF receiving grade difference against man coverage compared to zone (higher versus man), and Denver runs man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
- I will have a bet on Sutton + Diggs 125-plus combined receiving yards (+195), given that I like the matchup for both and it offers some flexibility from having to bet on who has the bigger game on alts.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) | 46.5 Total
- In both prior meetings between these teams this season, the Rams played from ahead for much of the game.
- They led 14-9 at halftime in Week 11.
- They led 13-7 at halftime in Week 16.
- In both games, the Seahawks were able to stay in the game and force late decisions with high passing volume from Sam Darnold.
- They missed a long field goal as time expired in a two-point loss in Week 11.
- They won in overtime in Week 16.
- Darnold averaged 39 pass attempts per game across those two contests.
- I think the consensus around Sam Darnold and Seattle is that you want to force them into negative game scripts, but they’ve shown some resilience in those spots in limited chances this year.
- The Seahawks have produced the highest EPA per play mark in the NFL when trailing by seven or more points (on just over 150 offensive snaps).
- That’s all to say that I think there’s an opportunity to bet on a similar game script — Darnold 34-plus attempts, Blake Corum 10-plus rushing attempts and Rams 1H / Seahawks full game ML at 75-1.
- On the Corum component of this, the Rams have a 58% run rate on early downs against the Seahawks in the first half this season.
- Seattle ranks second in two-high safety rate, and the Rams have shown a willingness to try to establish a ground game early in prior meetings.
- I prefer betting on Corum attempts compared to Kyren Williams at lower lines, given the split we’ve seen late in the season (last week excluded).
- Betting attempts is mor enticing than yards because of inefficient volume for the Rams' run game while playing from ahead opens up opportunity for the Rams 1H / SEA game leg
- Seattle has been, by a decent margin, the best run defense in the NFL this season.
- On the Corum component of this, the Rams have a 58% run rate on early downs against the Seahawks in the first half this season.
- I’ve been on Seattle funneling targets to tight ends for much of this season (came through again last week with Jake Tonges overs prior to his injury, despite the 49ers’ overall struggles).
- Theoretically, Colby Parkinson stands to benefit most here as the Rams’ primary tight end.
- Los Angeles has been a heavy 13-personnel offense (three tight ends), but they opted for more three-receiver sets against the Bears, and Parkinson (53 offensive snaps) outsnapped Terrance Ferguson (23), Davis Allen (nine) and Tyler Higbee (eight) by a wide margin.
- Parkinson has also been the highest-usage red-zone player when on the field for not just the Rams, but the entire NFL.
- He is targeted on 45% of red-zone routes (only player above 40% with 25-plus routes).
- Theoretically, Colby Parkinson stands to benefit most here as the Rams’ primary tight end.
- I also like a lot of the prices on a lot of the fringe receiving options for the Rams to score the game's first touchdown.
- The Rams have a 61% red-zone pass rate through two playoff games.
- I like taking a swing on Konata Mumpfield at 100-1 to score first. He ran a route on six of eight red-zone dropbacks for Matthew Stafford last week and has four first-half red-zone targets on the season.
- He scored the first touchdown in the Rams' international game against the Jaguars.
- If the heavier 11-personnel usage from last week isn’t an aberration and we see it again, that provides more opportunities for Mumpfield. This price is attractive, given his skill set in the red zone.
- If we’re expecting the Seahawks to pass above their base rate in a competitive game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the potential to exceed high lines (6.5 receptions, 91.5 receiving yards)
- Smith-Njigba has seen 24 targets in two games vs. the Rams this season, and Los Angeles ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to outside wide receivers during the regular season.