NFL Divisional Round Betting Notebook

After a largely competitive weekend of NFL playoff football in the wild-card round, we’re down to eight teams competing for the Lombardi Trophy. 

We will again aim to make sense of the remaining games — four divisional-round matchups — by compiling relevant data in a bulleted, narrative form, hitting on individual game markets and player props that I like, as well as SGP angles. 

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Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) | 45.5 Total

• The injury reports tell very different stories for these teams.
  • The Broncos have just four players on the injury report coming off their bye, all practicing in some capacity.
  • The Bills have 15 players on their injury report, with just two (Damar Hamlin and Curtis Samuel) who are potentially returning from extended absences. They logged full practices Tuesday and Wednesday.
• Buffalo's receiving options are getting extremely thin.
  • Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers both suffered serious knee injuries last week, and Josh Palmer was already on injured reserve.
    • Ty Johnson (Bills’ primary receiving running back) continues to remain out of practice with an ankle injury.
    • Dalton Kincaid is limited with knee and calf injuries.
  • That leaves Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel (assuming he returns this week) as healthy wide receivers.
• My favorite angle to play, given the lack of receiving depth, is Dawson Knox receiving overs and anytime touchdown bets.
  • Knox ranks second on the offense in routes and targets over the second half of the season, and he out-snapped Dalton Kincaid last week.
  • The Broncos have been softer against tight ends, ranking 24th in receiving yards per game allowed to the position, compared to 13th against wide receivers.
  • Knox has a 25% target rate in the red zone and is tied for the team lead in red-zone receiving scores this season.
    • His anytime touchdown bet is +450, which is well above that of Shakir (+215) and Kincaid (+280).
    • Also, I don’t mind taking a shot on a first touchdown bet at +2500, given Buffalo has started games stronger than Denver for much of the season.
• The Bills had a difficult rushing matchup last week against the Jaguars (James Cook handled 15 carries for 46 yards), and this contest against Denver isn’t much different.
  • The Broncos are allowing 3.6 yards per carry on designed runs (fourth-lowest average in the NFL).
  • This was also the case when these two teams met in the playoffs last season, and Cook ran for 120 yards on 23 carries.
    • Buffalo is capable of finding rushing success against good run defenses, but I would still lean toward Cook’s under at 75.5 yards, given the state of the Bills' offense from an injury perspective.
• This is a similar spot to last week when Jacksonville played Buffalo: a pass-first offense against a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the run.
  • Denver ranks 29th in run rate in neutral game situations (early downs, first three quarters and one-score games).
  • The Jaguars averaged 6.0 yards per carry on designed runs against the Bills, but that was across just 21 designed runs.
    • Broncos head coach Sean Payton will likely lean more on the run game, given that it's Buffalo's weakness. There’s also an anecdotal element around the discussion this week about the Jaguars not running enough last week despite their success.
• Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry in a limited role since Week 13 and took five-plus carries in each of the past three weeks of the regular season.
  • If Denver does run the ball more than we’ve seen, McLaughlin 25-plus rushing yards at +119 is my favorite way to bet the Broncos' rushing attack.
• Courtland Sutton has by far the most secure receiving role in Denver’s offense (75-plus more routes than the next-closest player over the past five weeks), but he’s been significantly more productive against single-high than two-high, which the Bills run at a top-10 rate.
• I have bets on Denver -1.5 in this game.
  • Josh Allen being as banged up as he is, in addition to the injuries to the Bills' receiving corps in a matchup against a well-rested, top-three defense playing at home, is enough for me to back the Broncos, despite some concerns about the consistency of their passing game.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) | 44.5 Total

• I didn’t think the 49ers would be able to move the ball as well as they did last week against the Eagles, and this will be another test against an elite defense on the road.
  • The 49ers lost tight end George Kittle in that game, but the expectation is that Ricky Pearsall will be able to give it a go this week (albeit with fairly high re-injury risk).
• In what was essentially a playoff game two weeks ago (playing for a division title and the No. 1 seed), the 49ers struggled to get much of anything going offensively, with a 33% success rate and -0.41 EPA per play.
  • Star tackle Trent Williams didn’t play in that game, and backup Austen Pleasants really struggled (PFF pass-blocking and run-blocking grades below 40.0).
  • Pearsall also missed that game.
• Perhaps in part because of Williams' absence, quarterback Brock Purdy wasn’t able to push the ball downfield often. His 4.0-yard average depth of target was by far his lowest in a game this season.
  • This isn’t a Purdy-only stat. Seattle saw the lowest average depth of target of any defense in the NFL this season, largely funneling targets to opposing running backs and tight ends.
• Christian McCaffrey’s receiving lines are set pretty aggressively at 6.5 receptions and around 50 receiving yards. I don’t have a ton of interest in attacking the overs there.
  • I do have a bet in on an anytime touchdown for McCaffrey at -120, which is a reasonable price because San Francisco's expected scoring output is low. Still, McCaffrey’s touchdown equity is so high as the top red-zone pass game target without Kittle, in addition to his rushing opportunities.
• I am interested in Jake Tonges with a receiving yardage line in the mid-30s.
  • Pearsall will likely be limited if he does play, and Seattle allows very little to opposing wide receivers (second in receiving yards per game allowed)
  • On the other hand, Seattle ranks 27th in receiving yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends.
• I also like the value on a Tonges anytime touchdown at +330.
  • Tonges ranks second in target rate and is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns on plays starting inside the 25-yard line with Kittle off the field this season.
• The 49ers' defense has struggled to impact opposing quarterbacks. Even last week in a good showing against the Eagles, they generated pressure at the lowest rate of any defense in the wild-card round.
  • The Seahawks opted for a conservative approach in Week 18, finding success on the ground while the 49ers never posed much of a threat offensively. But Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold averaged a league-high 9.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket this season.
• It’s generally not a bad idea to target slot receivers against San Francisco’s defense, which has surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards allowed to slot pass catchers this season.
  • That would point to Cooper Kupp, who leads Seattle in slot routes, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been significantly more productive than Kupp on roughly half the slot routes.
  • Smith-Njigba has produced 124 receiving yards and 84 yards in two games against the 49ers. I'm just staying away from their passing game here, with Smith-Njigba's yardage line set in the 90s.
• This total has moved down since open, crossing under 45 on Thursday. I have an under 45.5 bet in but don’t like it quite as much below 45.
  • The two games between these teams this season resulted in 30 and 16 points. This being the third meeting for divisional opponents who are familiar with each other — featuring a very good Seahawks defense — points to a lower-scoring game.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-3) | 40.5 Total

• This matchup features the No. 2 offense in EPA per play (Patriots) against a defense that ranks second in EPA per play allowed (Texans).
  • The Texans' defense is excellent at limiting the effectiveness of any underneath throw.
    • They are surrendering 5.2 yards per attempt on throws less than 10 yards downfield (best in the NFL).
      • We saw this repeatedly in the wild-card round when the Steelers tried to get the ball out quickly on short passes.
  • New England’s path to offensive success here likely rests on quarterback Drake Maye’s ability to hit throws downfield and create with his legs.
• The Texans' defense doesn’t throw a lot at you schematically, but they’re aggressive, fast and talented.
  • That aggressive style allows some opportunities downfield. Houston has allowed the eighth-most deep passing yards of any defense this season.
    • That’s noteworthy in this matchup because New England is the most efficient deep passing team in the NFL.
      • Kayshon Boutte leads the offense (and ranks in the top 15 in the NFL) with 10 deep receptions this year. Without Mack Hollins in the fold, he’s even more secure as the Patriots' primary vertical threat.
        • I have some interest here in Boutte's receiving yardage and longest reception overs, given the schematic matchup.
• Houston has also allowed the fifth-most scramble yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.
  • Maye has the highest scramble rate of any quarterback with 300-plus dropbacks this season (9.7%), and these are the win-or-go-home games where I’m more interested in quarterback rushing overs/alts.
• There are two key concussions to consider.
  • Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is going to miss this contest, and Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez appears as if he’ll play after getting upgraded to a full participant on Thursday.
• I had an interest in the Chargers‘ pass game last week (big miss), in part because the Patriots' defense hasn’t been truly tested outside of two games against Josh Allen and the Bills.
  • Justin Herbert played his worst game of the season behind an offensive line that had no answers against New England.
  • The Texans aren’t in quite as dire straits up front, but it’s not a good unit. And it looks like they could be without Trent Brown in addition to Collins.
• The Patriots' run defense struggled over the second half of the regular season, but I think there’s a decent chance that was due to some of the injuries they were dealing with to the front seven.
  • Patriots Run Defense | EPA/Play Ranks Allowed
    • Weeks 1-10: 4th
    • Weeks 11-18: 25th
      • Milton Williams and Robert Spillane missed extended stretches here, among others.
• Houston had a lot of success running the ball against Pittsburgh, but the larger sample makes this one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL (30th in rushing success rate during regular season).
  • Coupled with the belief that New England's run defense is back to being an above-average unit (which we’ve seen going back to Mike Vrabel’s defenses in Tennessee), I think Houston will have to win through the air.
• Xavier Hutchinson was the biggest beneficiary of Nico Collins’ two missed games this season (Week 8 versus the 49ers and Week 18 versus the Colts).
  • Week 8: Five catches, 69 yards, TD
  • Week 18: Five catches, 84 yards
    • His receiving-yardage line is set under 30 yards. I have an interest in overs and pushing it out on alts, with the assumption that New England's offense won’t look as helpless as Pittsburgh’s against Houston, forcing the Texans to pass without a consistent run game.
• The only game market bet I have here is over 40.5 — a number that is two points higher than last week in Pittsburgh. I have more confidence in New England’s offense and still have hesitations about the Patriots' defense.
  • Houston ended up scoring two defensive touchdowns last week, so their turnovers on offense didn’t matter a ton, but they did have an above-average night moving the football on the Steelers.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (+3.5) | 48.5 Total

• The Bears continue to engineer second-half scoring outbursts, creating close games, which is part of why I wrote about liking Packers -0.5 in the first half better than the full-game spread last week.
  • If Chicago is going to keep doing this, I’m going to try to make money on it with Rams -6.5 first half and/or Bears +3.5 for the game at 10-1
    • Including the wild-card round, Chicago ranks 23rd in EPA per play in the first half and second in the second half of games.
• Matthew Stafford has been volatile over the Rams‘ past five games, producing a higher big-time throw rate than early in the season but also a much higher turnover-worthy play rate.
  • Stafford's Big-Time Throw and Turnover-Worthy Play Rates by Week | 2025 Season
    • Weeks 1-14: 7.0% BTT / 2.1% TWP
    • Weeks 15-WC: 8.2% BTT / 5.2% TWP
  • The Bears' defense has given up yardage all season but countered that by taking the ball away.
    • They rank 30th in average yards allowed per play and first in turnovers forced.
• Kevin Dotson‘s game status is a fairly major factor for a non-household-name offensive lineman.
  • The Rams' rate of plays with positive EPA is 53.8% with him on the field (first by more than 5 percentage points) and 45.8% with him off the field (eighth).
    • Dotson is particularly important for the run game.
      • The Bears average 3.8 yards per designed run with him off field (25th) and 4.6 with him on field (third).
  • The Bears did a solid job against Green Bay’s rushing attack, but they’re 29th on the season in average yards allowed per run play.
• If you’re playing the script where Los Angeles gets out to an early lead (and Dotson plays), then I would have interest in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined rushing yards (125-plus is +155 on DraftKings).
  • The Rams run at a 48% rate when leading by seven or more points (third highest in the NFL). I could see them playing conservatively with a lead, particularly in what projects as an extremely cold game with some wind and snow potential.
• There’s also a scenario in play where this is a shootout, despite less-than-ideal weather. The wind doesn’t look like it’s at the level where it would really impact the passing game. The biggest concern is the cold.
  • Over the past five weeks, the Rams' defense ranks 27th in average yards allowed per play, and they’ve been giving up more big pass plays (explosive pass rate allowed up to 15.0%, ranking 21st over the stretch).
• The Bears' pass game has been more explosive (ninth in explosive pass rate) than it has been consistent (20th in success rate).
  • Caleb Williams has been able to create by extending plays outside the pocket without taking sacks or making negative plays.
• The Rams do use a lot of post-snap safety rotation, which Williams hasn’t had as much success against this season.
  • Chicago ranks 16th in EPA per dropback against safety rotation, compared to ninth with no safety rotation.
• Los Angeles is primarily a zone coverage defense, and Bears wide receiver Luther Burden III has crushed zone coverage this season.
  • He owns a 26% target rate and 2.91 yards per route run on those plays (both highest on offense).
  • The Rams have been a better matchup for opposing wide receivers than tight ends, not that Colston Loveland couldn’t dominate, given what we’ve seen from him over the past month. I still prefer Burden overs at lower lines.
• I’m not betting any game markets here, outside of the Rams first half and the Bears full game parlay highlighted above.