The Broncos defense can stmie the Bills offense
We often reference a PFF study on coverage types that shows how man coverage amplifies individual talent — elite receivers consistently beat inferior corners, and elite corners erase lesser wideouts.
That dynamic is front and center here, as the Bills draw a Broncos defense that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, putting those one-on-one matchups under a microscope.
And that’s where the matchup tightens for Buffalo, as the Bills’ receiving corps has largely struggled against man coverage this season. Khalil Shakir has been above average when it comes to separation against man coverage, but he still sits below league average in yards per route run. And both Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman have seen their efficiency drop off sharply in man-heavy looks, aligning with Denver’s preferred approach.
Meanwhile, Denver’s cornerback trio of Riley Moss, Patrick Surtain II and Ja'Quan McMillian has been above average across both separation allowed and overall coverage, leaving no weak link for Buffalo to exploit — a tough matchup for a Bills receiving corps that has struggled versus man coverage.
With Josh Allen also managing injuries, this sets up a spot to back Denver by targeting Bills team total unders and Allen unders, along with SGPs built around an inefficient Buffalo passing game.
Matthew Stafford in position to pick apart the Bears defense
One of PFF’s past studies examined how quarterback traits interact with specific matchup types and found that outcomes vary significantly based on play style.
Scrambling ability is a key example: quarterbacks who scramble at higher rates are better equipped to extend plays and create independently, while those with low scramble rates are far more sensitive to context — relying heavily on surrounding talent and favorable matchups.
No quarterback scrambles less frequently than Matthew Stafford, making him more sensitive to his surrounding situation than most. While the Rams’ macro environment — Sean McVay, a strong offensive line and elite receivers — is already priced in, the micro matchup creates value, as Stafford is uniquely equipped to punish defensive mistakes and opponents that struggle to generate disruption.
Stafford remains among the NFL’s elite when plays are undisturbed, thriving from clean pockets against defenses that fail to disrupt timing or coverage.
With Chicago ranking bottom-five in disruption rate, this sets up as an ideal spot for Stafford to carve them up, making his overs, the Rams’ team total over and pass-heavy SGPs all attractive ways to play this matchup.