Offensive-minded head coaches and coordinators have steadily reduced their reliance on three-wide receiver sets in recent seasons, instead leaning more on heavy and condensed personnel groupings. As a result, rotational players — particularly No. 3 wide receivers — have become less reliable and increasingly difficult to trust in fantasy lineups.
So, as offenses lean more into heavy personnel packages, fantasy managers can gain an edge by identifying No. 1 skill players and No. 2 wide receivers facing less competition for touches.
This article examines league-wide trends and team-specific outliers across 11-, 12-, 21-, 22-, and 13-personnel groupings. Rates are used for all groupings except for 13, which uses totals. Offensive play volume and no-huddle tendencies were explored previously, with additional offensive trends to be examined in future studies.
Offensive personnel grouping averages and outliers from 2023-25
Averages20252024202311 Personnel58.11%62.30%63.36%12 Personnel24.26%23.01%20.43%21 Personnel6.85%6.41%7.55%22 Personnel3.00%2.31%2.00%13 Personnel65.0644.6346.13The NFL’s declining usage of 11 personnel continues to shrink the pool of fantasy-viable No. 3 wide receivers. Receivers who technically hold starting roles in three-wide sets but operate primarily from the slot could be at risk of posting career-worst fantasy seasons.
Meanwhile, the league’s increasing reliance on 12 and 21 personnel — both two-wide receiver formations — has created more volatility for No. 2 wide receivers. When one player clearly establishes himself as the full-time secondary option and rarely rotates off the field, reliable fantasy production can follow. However, teams that cycle multiple players through the No. 2 role often create inconsistent and difficult-to-trust fantasy outcomes.
The NFL’s usage of 22 personnel continues to trend upward, while 13 personnel has grown even more significantly. Wide receivers who firmly secure their team’s No. 1 role while maintaining access to snaps in 22 and 13 personnel packages can offer elite fantasy upside because those formations naturally reduce target competition from other wide receivers.