NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 17

• The New York Giants are lining up for the No. 1 overall pick: From here, the Giants land the first overall pick in 46% of PFF simulations.

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The current situation

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Denver Broncos (12-3)
2. New England Patriots (12-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
6. Buffalo Bills (11-4)
7. Houston Texans (10-5)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
2. Chicago Bears (11-4)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
4. Carolina Panthers (8-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts display the projected playoff chances for each team, along with the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or a loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.