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San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
The 49ers adjust without Ricky Pearsall: He couldn’t practice all week due to knee and ankle injuries and was ruled out on Saturday.
San Francisco didn’t have much stability at wide receiver over the first 10 weeks of the season. Kendrick Bourne, Jauan Jennings, Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Russell Gage Jr., Malik Turner and Jordan Watkins all played at least 17 offensive snaps, and none of them played in every game.
The 49ers finally had some stability in their last five games. Jennings and Pearsall started, playing 75% of the 12- and 21-personnel snaps and over 92% of the 11-personnel snaps. Robinson joined during 11 personnel, playing 85% of the snaps. Bourne was Robinson’s backup in 11 personnel, and they were the two backups in 12 personnel. Moore was the fifth-string option, playing only five offensive snaps in four games. Watkins has been on the roster but has been a healthy inactive in each of the last four games.
This week, Bourne simply took Pearsall’s space in the starting lineup. Bourne had been a full-time starter from Weeks 3-10, playing ahead of Robinson, so it wasn’t a surprise that Bourne received the boost in snaps. The Pearsall loss did not impact Jennings and Robinson’s roles. Moore moved up to fourth on the depth chart but split that role with Watkins, who was active for the first time in over a month.
Targets were spread out among the wide receivers. Tight end George Kittle was the focal point of the passing game. San Francisco has a big game against the Chicago Bears next week, which has generally been a favorable matchup for wide receivers. Bourne is a fine waiver-wire target in deeper leagues if Pearsall ends up missing another game.
Monitor George Kittle’s health: Kittle suffered an ankle injury late in the third quarter and didn’t return.
Kittle missed the first third of the season and was eased back into action for a few weeks, but he’s been dominant over the second half of the season. He is one of three tight ends to play over 90% of their team's offensive snaps from Weeks 10-15, joining Kyle Pitts Sr. and Brock Bowers. He averaged 19.1 PPR points per game during that stretch, second-best to Trey McBride, and there is a four-point gap between him and third place.
Kittle continued to play at a high rate over the first three quarters. He was the focal point of the offense, catching seven passes for 115 yards and a touchdown. After his absence, Luke Farrell and Jake Tonges took over. Farrell has been the second tight end in 12 personnel throughout the season, but Tonges took over as the receiving tight end early in the season. Tongs averaged 11.0 PPR points per game as a starter, which ranked 11th-best among tight ends during that time. The 49ers had a lead and were focused on run-heavy formations during the fourth quarter this week, but we should expect Tonges to be the more fantasy-relevant player if Kittle misses next week.
The 49ers have a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears, so Tonges would be a fine waiver-wire option in deeper leagues. However, players like Taysom Hill, Brenton Strange or A.J. Barner are likely better waiver-wire options.
The Colts return to their 11 personnel roots: Indianapolis stuck with 11 personnel more in this game than in any other this season.
When head coach Shane Steichen joined the Colts in 2023, they used 11 personnel on 77.1% of their offensive plays, third-most in the league at the time. His wide receivers were Alec Pierce at X, Michael Pittman Jr. at Z, and Josh Downs in the slot in 11 personnel, which has remained true each of the last three seasons. His 11 personnel rate dropped in his second year to 70.9%, in part, thanks to injuries at wide receiver.
This season, that rate dropped to 61.6%, ranking 14th in the league. Their three division rivals rank in the top three. Indianapolis invested a first-round pick in Tyler Warren, while Mo Alie-Cox and Andrew Ogletree both rank in the top 16 run-blocking tight ends of the last five seasons (out of 80 tight ends with at least 1,000 snaps). This has been detrimental to Downs’ fantasy value. His snap rate has declined by over 10% of the offensive snaps per game. He’s also had to compete for targets with Warren. His receptions per game have dropped from 5.1 to 3.6, and his receiving yards per game have dropped from 57.4 to 31.2.
Indianapolis’ game plan this week was to use more 11 personnel. The Colts used 11 personnel on 29 of the 32 first-half snaps. Indianapolis tried a few things on the first drive of the second half, but then it needed to use 11 personnel to try catching up to the 49ers' offense. This allowed Downs to be more involved. He caught five passes for 65 yards, making it his best game of the season in terms of receiving yards.
Because this change appeared to be based on this week’s game plan, rather than Downs being used more in two-receiver sets, we shouldn’t necessarily expect Downs to be more valuable going forward.
Miscellaneous notes
- Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson Sr. returned to practice from injured reserve on Thursday. He was limited in practice all week due to an eye injury, but he wasn’t activated to the 53-man roster.
- The Colts waived quarterback Brett Rypien on Monday. He had signed when there was more uncertainty around Philip Rivers, but with Rivers making his second start, while Riley Leonard was healthy as the backup, Rypien was no longer needed.
- Indianapolis wide receiver Alec Pierce was limited in practice on Thursday due to an Achilles injury.
- Colts wide receiver Anthony Gould was ruled out Saturday due to a foot injury, his second straight absence. He didn't practice all week. The Colts activated wide receiver Coleman Owen from the practice squad for this game on Monday to take Gould’s spot.
- Colts third-string tight end Drew Ogletree suffered a neck injury, and he was declared questionable late in the third quarter. If Ogletree has to miss time, Will Mallory would likely replace him. Mallory has spent all season on the roster, but Indianapolis has constantly made him inactive.
- The 49ers made a change at their third running back spot, making fifth-round rookie Jordan James active and 2024 fourth-round back Isaac Guerendo inactive. Guerendo has played in every previous game this season but only on special teams. He played a season-low three snaps on special teams last week.
Table notes
- Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
- Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
- Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.