- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Under 34.5 receiving yards (-115)— The Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme has forced more running back pass-protection snaps than any other defense in the NFL (177), and no defense has allowed fewer receiving yards per game to running backs this season. In the first meeting, Gibbs logged nearly as many pass-protection snaps (15) as routes run (17) and finished with just 3 receiving yards.
- RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 rushing yards (-112) — The Broncos defense stands as one of the NFL’s most effective run-stuffing units, ranking top-three in rushing success rate allowed at 26.2% (third), yards allowed per carry on designed runs at 3.6 (third) and positively graded run-play percentage at 68.5% (first).
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Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) vs Washington Commanders [Total: 50.5]
Game Overview
While neither of these NFC East foes has playoff aspirations, pride will be on the line in this division matchup. In the first meeting between the Cowboys and Commanders this season, the Cowboys unleashed their offensive firepower and dared Washington to keep up, winning comfortably by three scores and blowing past the slim 1.5-point spread.
For this matchup, the Commanders get their top receivers back after they were absent in the previous meeting, but they will now have to lean on Josh Johnson under center after losing Marcus Mariota to injury. That does not bode well for Washington’s chances of keeping pace with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys offense that ranks top five in offensive success rate at 38.4% and touchdown drive percentage at 28.0%.
RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Over 15.5 rushing attempts (-128)
Javonte Williams has been an instrumental piece of the Cowboys offense. Despite Dallas passing on 62.8% of its plays, Williams ranks seventh in carries per game this season. That is a credit to the 69.3 plays per game this offense averages, the highest mark in the NFL.
Dallas’ offensive tempo has been particularly impressive, having run the most plays this season with 15 or more seconds left on the play clock at 335, with only one other team exceeding 225.
The Commanders are likely to be playing from behind in this matchup, which should open up additional opportunities for Dallas to lean on the run game. It is a scenario Washington has frequently found itself in this season and one it has struggled to handle, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per rush.
Detroit Lions (-7.5) vs Minnesota Vikings [Total: 43.5]
Game Overview
The Lions are fighting to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, currently holding just a 4% probability. A loss would effectively end their postseason aspirations, and the Vikings are positioned to play spoiler, as they did in the first meeting.
When these NFC North rivals faced off in Week 9, J.J. McCarthy returned to the lineup and helped propel the Vikings to a three-point road victory despite entering as 9.5-point underdogs. Much of the credit went to the defensive side of the ball, as Minnesota held Detroit to one of its worst rushing performances of the season, allowing positive EPA on just 19% of runs.
The backup quarterback theme continues for the Christmas Day slate, with the Vikings set to start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer under center. The first-year quarterback has struggled in a limited sample this season, with Minnesota averaging just 3.7 yards per play when Brosmer is on the field.
That will be difficult to overcome against a Lions offense that ranks near the top of the league in several key metrics, including yards per play at 6.2 (second-best in the NFL) and a touchdown drive rate of 32.7% (third-best).
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Under 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Highlighted by PFF betting analyst Ben Linsey as his favorite prop on the Christmas Day slate, this matchup presents a stylistic challenge for Jahmyr Gibbs’ receiving production. While Gibbs is one of the NFL’s most explosive players with the ball in his hands, Minnesota’s defensive approach could limit his opportunities out of the backfield.
Per Linsey, “The Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme has forced more running back pass-protection snaps than any other defense in the NFL (177), and no defense has allowed fewer receiving yards per game to running backs this season. In the first meeting, Gibbs logged nearly as many pass-protection snaps (15) as routes run (17) and finished with just 3 receiving yards.”
Denver Broncos (-13.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs [Total: 36.5]
Game Overview
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs will not win the AFC West. A Broncos win would move Denver one step closer to completing the circle and reclaiming the division crown for the first time since 2015. It does not stop there, however, as this Broncos team also has its sights set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With little margin for error and a bad-blood rivalry at play, expect both teams to bring their best.
Previously buoyed by its defense, Denver has surged offensively down the stretch, particularly through the air. Bo Nix and company have generated positive passing EPA in each of their past five games, standing as one of just six teams to produce positive EPA on more than 50% of their passes since Week 11.
Conversely, the Chiefs have suffered another significant blow at quarterback and must now turn to their third passer in three games with Chris Oladokun. To make matters worse, Kansas City could be without its top receiving threat, as Rashee Rice has yet to clear the concussion protocol.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 rushing yards (-112)
The Broncos defense stands as one of the NFL’s most effective run-stuffing units, ranking top-three in rushing success rate allowed at 26.2% (third), yards allowed per carry on designed runs at 3.6 (third) and positively graded run-play percentage at 68.5% (first).
With the point spread for this matchup exceeding two scores, it is unlikely the Chiefs will have many opportunities to lean on the ground game. Compounding that issue is a near-even workload split between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, with Hunt holding a slight edge in volume. That has made it difficult for Pacheco to generate consistent production, as he has failed to surpass 35 rushing yards in each of his four games since returning from injury.