- C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins to shine against the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ man coverage: The Texans' offense and quarterback C.J. Stroud have performed far better against man coverage than against zone. That success is primarily driven by Nico Collins, who has ranked among the top five wide receivers in separation rate and yards per route run against man coverage for multiple seasons, with 2025 proving no exception.
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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love beats a struggling Chicago Bears coverage unit
At PFF, we studied the impact of perfectly covered plays and the outsized effect a single coverage breakdown can have on play-level success. Because coverage functions as a weak-link system, one mistake can dramatically swing the outcome. On average, plays with a coverage bust produce offense at a level comparable to the NFL’s best units, while plays with perfect coverage result in performance worse than that of the league’s worst offense.
Jordan Love has been dominant on plays featuring a coverage mistake, operating in a tier of his own in terms of EPA per play in those situations.
The challenge for Love and the Packers is that they have faced perfect coverage at an above-average rate this season.
There are, however, several factors working in Green Bay’s favor this week. Chicago generates perfect coverage at the third-lowest rate in the NFL, and the Packers’ wide receiver group is finally healthy with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs all available.
Weather could play a role, but if winds remain below roughly 20 mph, Love’s passing volume and efficiency — along with other Packers passing angles — stand out as appealing options.
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins shine bright against the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ man coverage
Another PFF study examined how different coverage types operate and their relative predictability. In man coverage, outcomes are more often dictated by individual talent, with the better player tending to win, while results in zone coverage are far less clear-cut.
The distribution of outcomes is also far wider against man coverage, as some of an offense’s best and worst plays tend to come in those looks rather than against zone.
That sets up an interesting matchup for Houston against a Steelers defense that plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s coverage unit has allowed some of the highest separation rates in the league, with every defender outside of James Pierre sitting in the bottom tier in separation allowed.
Meanwhile, the Texans offense and quarterback C.J. Stroud have performed far better against man coverage than zone. That success is primarily driven by Nico Collins, who has ranked among the top five wide receivers in separation rate and yards per route run against man coverage for multiple seasons, with 2025 proving no exception.
There is little on Pittsburgh’s roster capable of matching up with Collins, setting him up to control this matchup.
Houston’s offensive line has also trended upward as the season has progressed, particularly at tackle. The return of Trent Brown and the development of rookie Aireontae Ersery (who has earned a PFF grade of 70.0 over the past month) have added much-needed stability. That improvement is critical against a strong Steelers pass rush and in allowing Stroud to attack downfield, where he has been most effective against man coverage.
If the Texans can play from neutral or positive game states, this profiles as a favorable spot for Stroud, Collins and Texans passing-game outcomes.