Opinion poll shows how PP majority in Andalucía is on a knife edge for 17 May election

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The PP is projected to win between 54 and 57 seats, meaning it may or may not reach the 55-seat threshold required for an absolute majority. The PSOE Socialist party, the opposition in the region, continues to struggle

H. Barbotta

Seville

Thursday, 2 April 2026, 12:45

An opinion poll released on Sunday night by Gad3 for ABC newspaper indicates that the upcoming regional election in Andalucía on May 17 will be extremely close.

The Partido Popular (PP) of Juanma Moreno remains the clear front runner, slightly increasing its support to 43.6% compared to 2022. However, it is projected to win between 54 and 57 seats, meaning it may or may not reach the 55-seat threshold required for an absolute majority. The result may come down to how the last few votes translate into MPs in the 109-seat Seville-based parliament.

The PSOE Socialist party, the opposition in the region, continues to struggle, polling at 23.8% and expected to secure between 29 and 30 seats. This would match or slightly worsen its historically poor performance in the region four years ago.

Meanwhile, Vox remains stable in the poll at around 13.6%, with projections of 14 to 15 seats. Its role could become crucial if the PP fails to achieve a majority, potentially making it a key partner.

On the left, more noticeable changes are emerging. Por Andalucía would maintain its five seats despite a drop in vote share to 6.7%. In contrast, Podemos, running independently, would fall to just 0.6% and lose all parliamentary representation. Adelante Andalucía, however, shows significant growth, rising to 6.1% and potentially doubling its seats to four or five, nearing the threshold for forming its own parliamentary group.

Finally, Se Acabó la Fiesta would remain outside parliament with 2.2% of the vote.