Week 16 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.
The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.
Here are our analysts' favorite bets for the Week 16 Sunday slate. Their picks have gone 43-43-4 through 15 weeks.
Trevor Sikkema (8-7)
QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: Under 0.5 rushing yards (-185 Bet MGM)
Cousins has gone under this line in seven of his last 10 games, and this matchup only strengthens the case. Arizona ranks 29th in the NFL in total pressures generated (214), and when Cousins isn’t pressured, he rarely leaves the pocket.
Ben Linsey (11-4)
QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: Over 204.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)
Tampa Bay ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and is coming off a Thursday night loss to the Falcons in which it allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 373 yards. Carolina has typically played conservatively, ranking fourth in early-down run rate, but this matchup could force the Panthers to lean more on Bryce Young, as the Buccaneers also allow the NFL’s fourth-lowest success rate on early-down runs.
Mason Cameron (5-9-1)
QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: Over 225.5 passing yards (-110 FanDuel)
Cousins is coming off an explosive Week 15 performance in which he threw for 373 yards while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. He has been particularly effective against two-high looks this season, earning the sixth-highest PFF passing grade against open coverage shells. That sets up well against an Arizona defense that has played the second-highest rate of open coverages in the NFL and has struggled to limit efficiency recently, allowing the fifth-most yards per attempt (8.4) over the past four games. With Drake London trending toward a return, Cousins has the opportunity to break this game open in Week 16.
Max Chadwick (6-7-2)
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 12.5 rushing attempts (+100 FanDuel)
With Patrick Mahomes done for the season due to a torn ACL, it’s logical to expect Kansas City to lean more heavily on the run game. However, that approach runs into a tough matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 10th in team run-defense grade. Isiah Pacheco has gone under this number in nine of his last 10 games while splitting work with Kareem Hunt, and his 56.0 PFF grade ranks second-worst among 57 qualifying running backs. Given the declining efficiency and reduced role, it’s hard to project a spike in production here — and it increasingly feels like Pacheco’s time in Kansas City may be nearing its end.
Gordon McGuinness (5-9-1)
QB Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns: Over 15.5 completions (-117 DraftKings)
Sanders has gone over this number in each of his last three starts, and while the Bills have been stingy against opposing quarterbacks this season — allowing just eight to clear this mark — the game script sets up favorably for volume. Buffalo enters as a 10-point favorite, and with the Browns likely playing from behind for much of the second half, Sanders should be forced into a pass-heavy approach that provides ample opportunity to go over this number.