NFL Week 18 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.
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CLE@CIN | IND@HOU | TEN@JAX | GB@MIN | DAL@NYG | NO@ATL | NYJ@BUF | DET@CHI | LAC@DEN | KC@LV | ARI@LAR | MIA@NE | WAS@PHI | BAL@PIT
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 18 will be Myles Garrett’s final opportunity to break the single-season sack record, and the matchup provides a realistic path. Joe Burrow has been slightly below average at avoiding sacks under pressure this season, getting taken down on 20.3% of pressures — 26th among 40 qualified quarterbacks — after ranking 14th a year ago. Since the start of the 2023 season, Garrett has rushed Burrow 100 times, recording four sacks and 14 total pressures.
If there’s a silver lining for Cincinnati’s defense entering this matchup, it’s a noticeable improvement in tackling down the stretch. Since Week 15, the Bengals have missed just 21 tackles, the sixth-fewest in the NFL, with a 13.0% missed tackle rate that ranks ninth. That’s a meaningful turnaround from the first 14 weeks of the season, when they posted the third-most missed tackles (159) and the 11th-highest missed tackle rate (14.0%).
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Before C.J. Stroud exited the lineup in Week 10, the Texans were one of the league’s worst third-down offenses, converting just 33% of their attempts, tied for the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Stroud was throwing short of the sticks on 52% of his third-down attempts, the second-highest rate among quarterbacks. Since his return in Week 13, that script has flipped entirely: 64% of Stroud’s third-down throws have traveled past the sticks (ninth-highest), he owns an 81.3 PFF passing grade on third down (fifth-best), and Houston has climbed to the 10th-best third-down conversion rate. That improvement matters against an Indianapolis defense allowing a 43% third-down conversion rate this season, the sixth-highest in the league.
On the other side, rookie quarterback Riley Leonard is set to make his first NFL start in Week 18, and Shane Steichen could lean into Leonard’s rushing ability to simplify the game plan. In 2024, Leonard logged 111 designed quarterback runs for 612 yards and 15 touchdowns, earning an 87.1 PFF rushing grade — the best among Power 4 quarterbacks.
Designed QB runs have been nearly nonexistent in the Colts’ offense this season (five carries for three yards), but they were a major feature for Anthony Richardson in 2024, when he ranked second among quarterbacks with 322 rushing yards on designed runs and tied for first with five rushing touchdowns. Houston has faced the fewest designed quarterback runs in the NFL this season (four), setting up a potential schematic wrinkle in Leonard’s debut.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence’s legs have become a major driver of Jacksonville’s offense down the stretch. Since Week 9, he has produced 25 rushing conversions and seven rushing touchdowns on 50 attempts — totals that trail only Josh Allen among quarterbacks. Lawrence is the only quarterback in that span with multiple touchdowns on both designed runs (five) and scrambles (two), and his 48% conversion rate on rush attempts ranks third among qualifiers. That rushing upside is particularly relevant against a Titans defense that has allowed the fifth-most quarterback rushing conversions this season (27).
On the other side, Cam Ward has faced heavy blitz pressure recently, with only two quarterbacks seeing more blitzed dropbacks over the past two weeks (32). Ward has largely answered the challenge, completing 17 of 27 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown while earning an 89.2 PFF passing grade. However, pocket awareness remains a concern, as four sacks taken over that span pushed his season total to 24 — tied for the most in the NFL with Geno Smith. Jacksonville blitzes at the 10th-highest rate (33%), but that pressure rarely turns into sacks, as the Jaguars own the second-lowest sack rate on blitzes (4%). That held true in their Week 13 meeting with Ward, when Jacksonville recorded just one sack on 15 blitzes.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Christian Watson has been one of the NFL’s premier deep threats since returning in Week 8. On 18 deep targets, he’s hauled in nine receptions for 294 yards and four touchdowns — all top-three marks league-wide. That explosiveness aligns with Green Bay’s offensive approach, as the Packers rank second in the NFL with 45 deep attempts since Week 8. Notably, the only games in which Green Bay failed to log at least three deep attempts were the two Watson missed (Weeks 12 and 16).
The Vikings have faced just 36 deep attempts all season, the fewest of any defense, setting up a strength-on-strength clash.
On the other side of the ball, Justin Jefferson enters the game needing just 53 receiving yards to extend his streak of 1,000-yard seasons, though he has reached that mark only once in his past six games. His likely matchups come against Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine, and recent history suggests Minnesota may seek out Nixon. Since 2024, Jefferson has gotten open on 40% of his matchups against Nixon, catching five of six targets for 60 yards and a touchdown, compared to just a 16% open rate and 35 yards on five targets against Valentine.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
As Dak Prescott chases his first season as the NFL’s passing-yards leader, expect play action to be a central part of Dallas’ game plan against the Giants. In the teams’ Week 2 meeting, Prescott completed 12 of 13 play-action passes for 109 yards, and that efficiency carried throughout the season. He ranks second in the NFL with 14 play-action touchdown passes and third with a 130.6 passer rating on such throws. New York has struggled in that area, allowing the third-most yards per attempt (9.3) and the third-highest passer rating (121.1) against play action.
On the other side, impending free-agent wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson broke out against Dallas in Week 2, catching eight passes for 142 yards, including 118 yards on targets 10 or more yards downfield. That performance helped spark his emergence as a vertical threat. From 2022–24, Robinson totaled 19 catches for 349 yards and two touchdowns on downfield targets; in 2025 alone, he has surpassed those marks with 26 catches for 605 yards and four touchdowns. He also leads all pass-catchers with 16 receptions for 387 yards on downfield targets from the slot, setting up a favorable matchup against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the third-highest completion rate on downfield throws (58%).
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has been at his best when kept clean, ranking ninth among 32 quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (88.4) from a clean pocket and posting the second-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL (0.8%) in those situations, trailing only Joe Burrow.
That puts added emphasis on Atlanta’s pass rush, which has quietly taken a step forward in 2025. While the Falcons’ pressure rate ranks just 16th league-wide, their 36.6% mark is their highest of the PFF era, and they’re converting those pressures into sacks at a team-record 26.1% rate — a critical factor in disrupting a quarterback who thrives from a clean pocket.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
It remains unclear how much Josh Allen will play with the AFC East already decided, and one factor that could push Buffalo toward resting its franchise quarterback is his increased exposure to sacks this season. Allen ranked among the league’s top 10 quarterbacks in lowest pressure-to-sack rate in every season from 2020–24, but his 20.0% rate this year ranks 22nd out of 32. After taking just 14 sacks all of last season, Allen has already been sacked 40 times in 2025 — a new career high.
If Allen plays significant snaps, Jets edge defender Will McDonald is the pass-rusher most likely to cause problems. McDonald has totaled 42 combined sacks and quarterback hits over the past two seasons, 27 more than any other current Jets defender. In 74 career pass-rush snaps against Allen, McDonald has recorded one sack and three quarterback hits.
On the other side of the ball, Breece Hall will look to close the season strong as one of the top impending free-agent running backs this offseason. Hall has been especially effective between the tackles, ranking third in yards per carry (5.3, minimum 100 attempts) and tied for fourth with 17 explosive runs. That represents a major turnaround from 2024, when his 3.6 yards per carry between the tackles ranked last among qualifying running backs. The matchup is favorable, as Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards (1,051) and the second-highest yards per carry (5.4) on runs between the tackles this season.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Aidan Hutchinson enters Week 18 tied for the NFL lead in total pressures (92) alongside Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. In his lone matchup with Caleb Williams back in Week 2, Hutchinson recorded a sack and generated five total pressures.
As Williams chases history — aiming to become the first Bears quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in a season — he may have opportunities to push the ball downfield. Detroit has been vulnerable on deep shots, allowing the second-most passing yards (1,081) on throws of 20-plus yards this season.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Tuli Tuipulotu’s breakout season rushing the passer for the Chargers has seen a dramatic increase in his pressure rate generated from last season. In 2024, Tuipulotu’s 10.5% pressure rate ranked 65th among edge defenders, while his 17.9% pressure rate this season ranks sixth overall at the position.
On the other side, Courtland Sutton continues to be one of the league’s most reliable contested-catch receivers. His 17 contested catches in 2025 are tied for the sixth-most among all players, and dating back to the start of the 2024 season, Sutton’s 37 contested catches rank second-most in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Even in a lost season for the Chiefs that ended without a playoff berth, one thing hasn’t wavered: the elite play of center Creed Humphrey. Humphrey’s 90.0 run-blocking grade ranks second among all centers, and his 83.3 pass-blocking grade also sits second at the position, continuing to anchor Kansas City’s offensive line at a high level.
Cornerback Eric Stokes has found a solid footing in his first season with the Raiders and is a name to watch this offseason as free agency approaches. Heading into Week 18, Stokes is allowing just 0.49 yards per coverage snap, the best mark in the NFL among all cornerbacks.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Trey McBride has been the most difficult tight end to bring down after the catch this season. His 23 missed tackles forced leads all tight ends, helping fuel his 27 explosive receptions of 15-plus yards, also the most at the position.
McBride’s after-the-catch production has been consistent over multiple seasons as well. Dating back to the start of 2023, his 49 missed tackles forced not only lead all tight ends, but are tied for the 11th-most among all players over that span.
One of the most notable developments for the Rams from their 2023 draft class has been the emergence of Warren McClendon Jr. at right tackle while filling in for Rob Havenstein.
In nine starts this season, McClendon has allowed just 11 total pressures, and his 3.2% pressure rate allowed ranks as the fifth-lowest among all offensive tackles. He’s also been highly dependable in pure pass protection — his 341 pass-blocking snaps without allowing a sack are the third-most among offensive tackles, further highlighting his value to the Rams’ offensive line.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
With Quinn Ewers under center, Miami has leaned heavily into play action in each of his starts. Since Week 16, the Dolphins’ 43% play-action rate leads the NFL and represents a sharp jump from their 29% usage over Weeks 1–15.
The shift has played directly into Ewers’ strengths: on play-action throws over the last two games, he’s completed 19 of 24 passes (79%) while posting a 108.9 passer rating.
Drake Maye’s MVP case is being powered by what he’s doing late in the down. On throws over three seconds, Maye has been the most productive quarterback in football this season, posting an NFL-best 114.4 passer rating.
He also leads all quarterbacks in nearly every major category on those plays: 104 completions, a 64% completion rate, 1,827 passing yards, and 12 touchdown passes.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt may have delivered his best performance of the season last week against Dallas. He generated 120 rushing yards after contact, the 12th-highest single-game total by any running back this year.
Cooper DeJean has emerged as one of the most active and playmaking cornerbacks this season for the Eagles. His 18 defensive stops in coverage are tied for the fourth-most among cornerbacks, and his 12 pass breakups rank fifth at the position.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
In the first meeting between Pittsburgh and Baltimore in Week 14, Aaron Rodgers delivered his best performance in years, earning an 87.5 PFF passing grade and recording five big-time throws — both his highest marks in a single game since the 2021 season. The deep passing game fueled that success, as Rodgers completed all four of his deep attempts for 152 yards. However, three of those completions (121 yards) went to D.K. Metcalf, who is suspended for Week 18, while the remaining 31-yard gain went to Calvin Austin III, who missed Week 17 with a hamstring injury, making a repeat performance far more difficult to replicate.
Before that Week 14 matchup, Baltimore’s defense ranked second in the NFL with a 58.9 passer rating allowed on deep throws. Since then, the Ravens have fallen to last, allowing a 145.4 passer rating on deep attempts while surrendering the most deep completions (15) and deep passing yards (480) in the league.
On the other side of the matchup, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers defense have historically looked to pressure Lamar Jackson with aggressive blitzing. Among the 29 defenses Jackson has faced in his career, Pittsburgh’s 48% blitz rate against him ranks fourth-highest, while its 44% pressure rate ranks third-highest. That approach has been less effective this season, however, as Jackson has excelled against the blitz, ranking second among qualifying quarterbacks with an 88.2 PFF passing grade and third with a 108.4 passer rating.