- With D.K. Metcalf suspended, Kenneth Gainwell becomes an important piece of the Steelers offense: Gainwell leads all running backs with a minimum of 100 routes in target rate (27%), and his 17 receiving conversions rank fifth at the position. He has also been effective when lined up as a receiver, working from the slot or out wide, where he caught four passes for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in Week 16.
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BAL@GB | SEA@CAR | ARI@CIN | PIT@CLE | JAX@IND | TB@MIA | NE@NYJ
NO@TEN | NYG@LV | PHI@BUF | CHI@SF | LAR@ATL
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Derrick Henry’s rushing surge has been a major development for Baltimore over the second half of the season. Since Week 10, Henry has generated 448 rushing yards after contact, the second-most among all running backs, and his ability to force missed tackles has been a key driver of that production.
The split is stark. Through Weeks 1–9, Henry forced just six missed tackles. Since Week 10, he has forced 27, tied for the third-most in the NFL over that span.
Henry and the Ravens’ ground game now face a tough test against one of the league’s most disciplined run defenses. Green Bay has allowed just a 6.6% explosive run rate on designed runs — the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL — and their 45 missed tackles against the run are tied for the fewest in the league.
Green Bay’s running backs have been earning their production the hard way this season — after contact. The Packers have gained 77% of their total rushing yards after contact, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Josh Jacobs has been the centerpiece of that physical style. His 712 rushing yards after contact rank 10th in the league this season, and since joining Green Bay last year, his 1,751 yards after contact are the fifth-most among all running backs.
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks defense has consistently sought to change the picture for opposing quarterbacks, rotating their safeties on 40% of their defensive snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
For Bryce Young, handling disguise has been an area of growth. When facing these changing post-snap looks, Young is posting a career-high 84.6 passer rating, along with career bests in completion percentage (65%) and yards per attempt (6.7).
The Panthers’ outstanding deep coverage will likely be tested by Sam Darnold and Seattle’s downfield passing attack. Carolina has been one of the league’s best at limiting explosive throws, allowing just a 66.4 passer rating on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield, the third-lowest mark in the NFL.
Darnold, however, has been the most efficient deep passer in football this season. His 136.3 passer rating on throws of 20-plus yards leads all quarterbacks, and his 61% completion rate on those attempts is also the highest in the league.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Michael Wilson continues to impress in his third season. His 22 contested catches are tied for the second-most in the NFL, and his 73% contested catch rate ranks second-highest among all pass catchers with at least 15 contested targets.
Joe Burrow delivered his best performance of the season last week against Miami, and he was especially dominant from a clean pocket. Burrow completed 83% of his passes (20-of-24) for 203 yards and threw all four of his touchdown passes without pressure.
That efficiency could pose a major problem for an Arizona defense that has struggled to affect the quarterback in recent weeks. Since Week 12, the Cardinals’ 31% pressure rate ranks 27th in the NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
With D.K. Metcalf suspended for the remainder of the regular season, dual-threat running back-receiver Kenneth Gainwell becomes an even more important piece of the Steelers offense. Gainwell leads all running backs with a minimum of 100 routes in target rate (27%), and his 17 receiving conversions rank fifth at the position. He has also been effective when lined up as a receiver, working from the slot or out wide, where he caught four passes for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in Week 16. Among running backs, only Bijan Robinson has more receptions and receiving yards from receiver alignments than Gainwell.
That said, the Browns limited Gainwell in their Week 6 meeting, as he finished with just 14 receiving yards and no conversions despite securing all six of his targets.
Cleveland leaned into a conservative passing approach with Shedeur Sanders against the Bills in Week 16, as the rookie posted a season-low 2.4 average depth of target. The results were largely positive, with Sanders completing 16 of 19 passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage for 152 yards and a touchdown, though it also included two interceptions, one on a dropped pass and another on a batted ball. The Browns could take a similar approach against a Steelers defense that has allowed a 7.3 average depth of target, tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence has started to click in Liam Coen’s offense over the past four games, and the improvement is most evident on first-read throws.
From Weeks 13–16, Lawrence leads all quarterbacks with a 139.7 passer rating on first-read attempts, and his 10 touchdown passes on those throws are also the most in the NFL over that stretch.
It’s a dramatic shift from Lawrence’s historical struggles in this area. From 2021–2024, his 33 interceptions ranked sixth-most among all quarterbacks, and his 62 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the league during that span.
Jacksonville’s heavy use of two-high safety looks could invite the Colts to lean on Jonathan Taylor, and it’s a matchup he has consistently exploited this season.
The Jaguars play a two-high shell 52% of the time post-snap, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Against those looks, Taylor leads all running backs with 729 rushing yards. He’s also averaging a strong 5.7 yards per carry, while producing league highs in rushing touchdowns (12) and the third-most explosive runs (14) versus two-high alignments.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
The Buccaneers were one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses early this season, ranking tied for fifth with 47 explosive plays from Weeks 1-8. Since their Week 9 bye, however, that production has dropped sharply, as their 28 explosive plays are tied for the second-fewest in the league.
A more conservative downfield approach has contributed to that decline. Despite Baker Mayfield owning the sixth-highest PFF passing grade on deep attempts at 94.1, Tampa Bay has fallen from fifth in deep pass rate before the bye at 14.4% to 26th after the bye at 9.9%. Mayfield led the NFL with eight deep touchdowns from Weeks 1-8, but he has just two since then, including none over his past four games. The Buccaneers now face a Dolphins defense that has allowed eight deep touchdowns this season, tied for the sixth most.
One encouraging aspect of Quinn Ewers’ first NFL start in Week 16 was his performance on longer-developing dropbacks of more than 2.5 seconds. On those plays, Ewers completed 10 of 13 passes for 145 yards and one interception, which came on a tipped pass, earning an 80.9 PFF passing grade. By comparison, Tua Tagovailoa has just one game this season with at least 10 completions and 100 passing yards on such dropbacks. Ewers will have a chance to build on that performance against a Buccaneers defense allowing the third-highest yards per attempt on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds at 8.8.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Stefon Diggs’ 138 receiving yards against the Ravens last Sunday night were more than he totaled from Weeks 12-15 combined at 72 yards. His previous big outing came in Week 11, when he posted 105 yards against the Jets. Overall, New York has played zone coverage on 62% of snaps this season, ranking sixth-lowest in the NFL. However, the Jets leaned more heavily on zone against the Patriots in Week 11, using it on 73% of snaps, and Diggs burned them for eight catches and 100 yards.
Drake Maye owns the second-highest PFF passing grade against zone coverage this season at 90.5 and ranks second in NFL passer rating at 104.8.
For the Jets offense, Adonai Mitchell has emerged as the primary downfield target. Since his Week 11 debut, his 32 targets past the sticks are 20 more than the next-highest Jets pass-catcher, and his 13 receptions exceed the rest of the team combined. While he had three drops on targets past the sticks against the Patriots in Week 11, he has not had one since. In total, New England has allowed 67 receptions past the sticks to wide receivers this season, tied for the seventh-fewest mark in the league.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
With Rashid Shaheed traded away midseason, Chris Olave has stepped in as the Saints’ primary deep threat, leading the league with 30 deep targets. Whether defenders can challenge him at the catch point has been the biggest factor in Olave’s deep production. On eight contested deep targets, he has just one catch for a 21-yard touchdown. On 22 non-contested deep targets, he has nine catches for 329 yards and four touchdowns. The Titans have struggled to defend the deep ball this season, allowing the NFL's highest completion rate at 52%.
Cam Ward is coming off by far his best performance of the season, earning an 88.0 PFF passing grade in Week 16, surpassing his previous season high of 74.7 in Week 12. Ward was especially sharp from inside the pocket, completing 18 of 23 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown. That is notable, given that Ward ranks fourth-lowest among qualifying quarterbacks in pass attempts coming from inside the pocket this season (79%). He now faces a Saints defense that has allowed the second-fewest pass attempts from inside the pocket at 328.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
Jaxson Dart has produced mixed results when throwing outside the pocket. Among 32 quarterbacks, Dart ranks tied for fifth in big-time throw rate at 8.0%, but he also ranks tied for seventh in turnover-worthy play rate at 4.9%. He is the only quarterback to rank in both the top seven and bottom seven of those categories when operating outside the pocket.
First-round pick Ashton Jeanty broke through with his best performance of the season last week, rushing for 106 yards and a touchdown against a strong Texans defense. Much of Jeanty’s inconsistency has stemmed from the blocking in front of him rather than his own play. He averages just 0.6 rushing yards before contact per attempt, the third-lowest mark among running backs with at least 100 carries this season. As a result, 84.9% of his rushing yards have come after contact, the third-highest rate among running backs.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
The floodgates are starting to open at the right time of the season for Eagles star Saquon Barkley. From Weeks 1-13, Barkley averaged 3.7 yards per carry with an 8.6% explosive carry rate. Since Week 14, however, he has averaged 5.3 yards per carry with a 14.2% explosive carry rate. The biggest change has come in his ability to create broken tackles and generate extra yards after contact. Over the past three weeks, Barkley has led all running backs with 253 yards after contact and 17 missed tackles forced on runs. Those are problem areas for a Bills defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards after contact at 1,473 and the seventh-most missed tackles on run plays with 73.
James Cook recently surpassed Jonathan Taylor as the league’s leading rusher, largely due to the space he is seeing at the line of scrimmage. Cook’s 619 rushing yards before contact are 142 more than the next-closest running back, Jahmyr Gibbs, and they are the only two backs with 200-plus carries averaging at least 2.0 yards before contact per attempt. Over the past three weeks, the Eagles have allowed just 21 yards before contact on 77 carries, an average of 0.3 per attempt.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
The Lions ranked 32nd in deep pass attempt rate at 8.8% during Ben Johnson’s tenure as offensive coordinator, but that number has jumped to the seventh-highest this season at 13.8% with Caleb Williams at quarterback in Chicago.
Williams owns the seventh-highest PFF passing grade on deep attempts at 93.4, and his 46% accurate throw rate ranks fourth.
Williams’ primary deep threat for much of the season has been Rome Odunze, whose 23 deep targets rank tied for fourth among all pass-catchers. However, with Odunze sidelined over the past three weeks, D.J. Moore has stepped into that role, securing five of six deep targets for 135 yards and two touchdowns, including the walk-off score against the Packers on Saturday night. The 49ers defense has been vulnerable downfield, allowing nine deep touchdowns this season, tied for the third most.
Brock Purdy was excellent in San Francisco’s Monday night win over the Colts, earning a 96.6 PFF grade, the highest single-game mark by any quarterback this season. Purdy was especially effective on third down, continuing a strong recent trend. Since Week 13, he has completed 24 of 29 passes for 240 yards and five touchdowns on third down, resulting in a 62% dropback conversion rate. The league average on third-down dropbacks is 36%. He now faces a Bears defense that ranks fifth best, allowing a 32% dropback conversion rate on third down.
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' passing game could struggle if it looks to push the ball downfield in this matchup. This season, Kirk Cousins at 24.0% and Michael Penix Jr. at 29.6% rank among the bottom three quarterbacks in completion percentage on passes of 20 or more yards. A major factor in those numbers has been Atlanta’s struggles at the catch point, as the Falcons’ 15.8% drop rate on passes of 20-plus yards ranks third highest in the league.
Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, has consistently punished blitzes this season. The Rams have faced pressure on 37.0% of pass plays, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and Stafford has thrown 26 touchdown passes against the blitz, 12 more than any other quarterback. That total alone would rank tied for fourth among all quarterbacks in passing touchdowns this season.