- 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time:8 minutes
The opening slate of the 2025 NFL postseason sure didn’t disappoint, with four one-score matchups and a slew of lead changes late in games. Part of what made those wild-card games so entertaining was watching teams put their strengths to the test, and which side prevailed in key departments. For instance, Drake Maye scrambling five times for 60 yards against the Chargers’ elite scrambling defense played a large role in the Patriots defeating Los Angeles.
Based on both the 2025 NFL regular season and wild-card round, below is one schematic key to follow in the four upcoming divisional round showdowns.
BuffaloBills at DenverBroncos: Broncos rushing splits before/after contact
The AFC’s top seed opens its playoff draw against an incredibly tough opponent in the Bills. While Josh Allen against the Broncos’ defense is worth the price of admission alone, what may be more interesting is how Denver’s offense operates against Buffalo’s defense — especially on the ground.
This year, the Broncos rank 17th in rushing success rate and 18th in PFF rushing grade. The team’s running back unit took a major blow when J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 10, and rookie R.J. Harvey has notched a 69.2 rushing grade in his stead.
While Denver’s relatively average rushing attack looms large in the playoffs, what should be isolated is the work of its elite offensive line and the related ground-game splits. More specifically, the Broncos placed sixth in yards before contact per attempt (1.5), thanks in large part due to the team’s seventh-best PFF run-blocking grade. Meanwhile, Denver’s 2.5 yards after contact is tied for the worst mark in the NFL, with Harvey averaging just 2.66 yards after contact per attempt.
The Bills’ biggest concern in the playoffs is unquestionably their run defense. Buffalo ranks 30th in rushing EPA per play, tied for 27th in rushing success rate and 27th in PFF run-defense grade. Alarmingly, the Bills have been gashed both before and after contact, placing no better than 27th in each category in yards per carry.
Buffalo’s run defense reared its ugly head against the Jaguars in the wild-card round, permitting 6.7 net yards per rush and seven explosive carries. In particular, Jacksonville averaged 3.5 yards after contact per carry, which tied for the most by any wild-card team. Will Denver’s run game churn out yards after being hit, or will Buffalo finally limit gains deeper into plays?
San Francisco49ers at SeattleSeahawks: Brock Purdy vs. Seahawks’ Cover 1
The 49ers and Seahawks will clash for the second time in three weeks on Saturday night in the NFC divisional round. Although San Francisco is now down yet another star in George Kittle, Kyle Shanahan’s depleted team has proven it’s still a force. At the same time, the 49ers will have to quickly turn the page after a Week 18 drubbing against Seattle — with the group needing to better attack Cover 1.
In these two rivals’ regular-season finale, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald threw Shanahan a bit of a curveball. Seattle has run Cover 1 only 11.5% of the time this season — its fourth-most frequent coverage — but that rate jumped to 23.8% in Week 18, good for the Seahawks’ second-most-common look behind Cover 6.
That schematic shift paid dividends for the Seahawks. On Cover 1, Seattle recorded an 84.4 overall PFF grade with an 81.8 PFF coverage mark. Likewise, Purdy did complete 6-of-8 passes against Seattle’s Cover 1 snaps, but totaled just 24 passing yards with a 65.5 PFF passing grade.
Altogether, Macdonald’s swarming defense shut down San Francisco’s elite offense like rarely seen in recent memory — with the ability to stick to receivers down the field in man coverage a big reason why. In fact, Purdy didn’t even try a pass of at least 20 yards despite owning a 93.6 deep PFF passing grade from Weeks 15-18.
Down Kittle, San Francisco’s perimeter passing attack will become that much more heightened. Players like Demarcus Robinson and Kyle Juszczyk — who each garnered a 75.6-plus PFF receiving grade against the Eagles in the wild-card round — will have to continue to find separation, especially if Macdonald turns to Cover 1 more regularly a second time.
Access Brock Purdy's full passing profile in PFF Premium Stats!HoustonTexans at New England Patriots: Texans’ Man run concepts
After two overwhelming wild-card wins, the Texans and Patriots will battle from Foxborough in the divisional round. The top attraction will be watching Drake Maye against the league’s best defense, but Houston’s suddenly stark running game also bears monitoring.
In the wild-card round, the team that finished with the highest EPA per rush wasn’t the Bills or Bears — it was actually the Texans. Indeed, Houston’s lifeless ground game witnessed a resurgence against the Steelers, producing 5.3 net yards per rush, a 36.4% rushing success rate and three explosive carries. Compiling that effort after playing like a bottom-four run attack all season is a somewhat miraculous feat.
In particular, Man concepts spurred the Texans’ tremendous night on the ground. Houston deployed Man looks on 61% of its carries, registering a 77.3 team PFF rushing grade and 4.8 yards per carry on those tries. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks each procured a 70.0-plus rushing grade on Man totes as well.
New England’s run defense has been fairly solid in 2025, slotting 12th in rushing EPA per play allowed but 18th in PFF run-defense grade. However, the Patriots have been far less effective against Man runs, ranking 27th with a 55.0 run-defense grade. Similarly, New England has yielded 4.8 yards per carry against Man (T-27th) with a 9.3% explosive run rate (20th).
Even on a night where C.J. Stroud struggled to take care of the ball, the Texans’ rushing attack acted as a lifeline — helping Houston move down the field and string together longer possessions. With Nico Collins’ status for Sunday in doubt after suffering a concussion, it’s fair to expect a similarly heavy dose of Man runs against the Patriots. How well New England can limit those carries will be significant.
Los Angeles Rams at ChicagoBears: Caleb Williams extending plays
In what figures to be an unbelievable duel, the Rams head to frigid Chicago to battle the upstart Bears as the divisional round concludes. Los Angeles’ offense should find some leeway with Chicago’s lackluster defense, putting that much more of an onus on the Bears’ offense. Perhaps that’s exactly how Caleb Williams — and his ability to deliver when holding the ball — wants it.
Williams performed admirably in his first ever playoff start, registering a 77.3 overall PFF grade while leading the Bears to his seventh fourth-quarter comeback of the season. As usual, part of what sparked that effort was Williams making magic happen in low-percentage opportunities, especially as the play broke down — such as his fourth-and-8 throw while falling away to Rome Odunze with just over 5 minutes left.
For further context, Williams produced a 77.1 overall PFF grade with a 75.6 PFF passing grade on throws of 2.5 seconds or longer against the Packers, with five of his six big-time throws coming in those situations. That continued his excellence when holding the ball all season, as his 78.9 overall grade on such dropbacks is ninth among qualifiers. Moreover, Williams’ 32 big-time throws on longer passes are second among that group, and his 91.9 PFF rushing grade is the best — demonstrating how lethal he is when given ample time.
On the other hand, the Rams’ defense has been fairly effective when permitting quarterbacks to take more time to release passes. On throws over 2.5 seconds, Los Angeles is eighth in both EPA per play and yards per play allowed while also slotting 11th in PFF coverage grade. However, the Rams have yielded the fourth-most first downs on longer passing plays (105).
Even against a defense that’s fourth in total pressure rate, Williams should still have plenty of snaps where he’s afforded more time; after all, his 65.0% dropback rate of taking at least 2.5 seconds to throw is the third-highest in football. To what extent the former No. 1 overall pick can create when holding the ball could be what decides who reaches the NFC championship.