Here are our top SGP picks for the divisional round, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.
A pass-heavy contest in Santa Clara
The run defenses on both sides are clear strengths in this matchup. Seattle led the NFL in both rush success rate allowed and EPA allowed per rush over the course of the season. Meanwhile, New England — with a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane — ranked top-three in both metrics and elevated that performance in the playoffs, holding opponents to a 31% rush success rate and -0.254 EPA per carry across three games.
That creates a plausible game script in which both teams tilt heavily toward the pass, largely abandoning the run game, with neither side producing a 60-yard rusher.
In that script, the play volume naturally increases. Fewer rushing attempts and more clock stoppages lead to a larger total sample of offensive plays, while struggling run games further push the pass-rate higher. More plays and a higher pass ratio combine to create additional opportunities for passing attempts to accumulate.
Starting with a “no player to reach 60 rushing yards” leg, the correlation to passing-attempt overs is effectively neutral in most models — but conceptually, it should be strongly positive. If neither team can run efficiently, volume and necessity both funnel production toward the passing game, making those overs meaningfully more viable within this game script.
SGP Build (22-1 on DraftKings)
- No player to reach 60 rushing yards
- QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 32+ pass attempts
- QB Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks: 32+ pass attempts
What if the Seahawks get out to an early lead?
The SGP above is relatively score-agnostic, as it can cash in either a Seahawks or Patriots win. We can build off a similar framework here by targeting Drake Maye to clear his passing-attempts line and then working backward through the second-order effects and game scripts that would lead us there.
One such script involves elevated Patriots play volume driven not by their own efficiency, but by Seattle’s explosiveness. If the Seahawks hit on an early explosive play — shortening their offensive possessions and scoring efficiently — it increases the likelihood that New England is forced into a higher-tempo, pass-heavy approach on the other side.
Few players are better suited to bet on for an explosive play than Rashid Shaheed, one of the league’s premier deep separators and the Seahawks’ leader in average depth of target. If Seattle is going to land an early chunk gain that flips the script, Shaheed is the most likely catalyst.
That said, increased Patriots possession volume does not automatically translate to offensive efficiency. This is, after all, a Seahawks defense allowing the seventh-lowest completion rate in the NFL. And while Drake Maye’s attempt totals are partially suppressed by his league-leading 70% completion rate, it’s unlikely he sustains anything close to that baseline against this unit.
This is where the SGP becomes particularly interesting in its interaction with the game under. A long Shaheed reception would normally signal “over,” but Maye’s inflated passing volume could just as easily be a symptom of declining efficiency — more dropbacks, more incompletions and an offense struggling to establish anything on the ground.
Even if the Seahawks score at a neutral rate against a Patriots defense that ranked top-three in EPA allowed per play over the full season and was dominant down the stretch, New England could still be forced into a high-volume passing script without the corresponding yardage. That combination — explosives on one side, inefficiency-driven volume on the other — creates a rare alignment where passing overs and a game under can coexist.
SGP Build: 75-1 on DraftKings
- WR Rashid Shaheed, Seattle Seahawks: 40+ yard longest reception
- Game total: Under 45.5
- QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 34+ pass attempts