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One area PFF has studied extensively is the impact of explosive plays on NFL offenses. At the drive level, success is often determined by a team’s ability to generate explosive plays, as methodical marches down the field offer a far more fragile path to points.
And in this matchup in particular, explosive plays may be the central lens through which the game is decided.
As dominant as the Seattle Seahawks defense has been all season, one area where it has shown vulnerability is defending the ball downfield. Despite ranking top 10 in nearly every major defensive metric, Seattle finished the second half of the season squarely in the middle of the pack in explosive plays allowed, ranking 14th in explosive pass rate allowed over that stretch.
That presents a clear window for New England to generate offense, particularly because Drake Maye has been one of the NFL’s most effective deep throwers all season.
For the season, Maye leads the NFL by a wide margin in expected points added (EPA) on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield. Even if he’s inefficient on a snap-to-snap basis against a brutal Seahawks defense, connecting on just a handful of downfield shots could be enough to push him over his passing-yardage number and allow the Patriots to post a respectable offensive output.
If New England is going to have success against the league’s No. 1 run defense and a dominant overall pass defense, it will almost certainly come through Maye’s ability to win deep.
That’s the story I’m betting on this week — playing Maye alt overs and same-game parlays built around explosive completions lifting the New England Patriots’ offense above expectations.
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