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Just one more Drake London catch was all we needed to cash the +900 Monday Night Football same-game parlay. Tonight, we trust the process and look to bounce back with the +1100 parlay.
The Dallas Cowboys offense has arguably been the most explosive unit in the NFL to start the season. Dallas has put points on the board at the league's highest rate, scoring on 61% of its drives. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, have lost four straight one-score games, and rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels is getting the nod under center again.
Leg 1: TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: 25+ receiving yards (-145)
The Buccaneers have struggled in coverage this season, allowing the sixth-most yards to tight ends. Tampa Bay’s linebackers and safeties have been targeted 51 times and allowed 42 catches this season, making this a perfect week to target Jake Ferguson props.
Ferguson has gone over this line once this season but came up just two yards short in another game. Against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled in coverage, over 25 yards feels like a low line for one of Dak Prescott’s favorite weapons.
40.060.080.0Receiving Grade5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Target ShareAVGAVGWalker IIITutenRobinsonGibbsWilliamsHubbardHenryBrownWarrenPollardWilliamsMontgomeryTaylorIrvingStevensonMcCaffreyCookJudkinsJeantyAllgeierJonesSwiftSkatteboThe same players and metrics are available as a sortable table on each team's Leaders tab.Source: PFF Premium StatsKenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceiving Grade73.78th / 23Target Share14.3%9th / 23Bhayshul TutenRB · JAXReceiving Grade79.15th / 23Target Share7.2%20th / 23Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving Grade74.37th / 23Target Share18.4%2nd / 23Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving Grade89.32nd / 23Target Share17.8%4th / 23Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving Grade77.46th / 23Target Share16.3%5th / 23Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving Grade71.19th / 23Target Share7.9%19th / 23Derrick HenryRB · BLTReceiving Grade80.04th / 23Target Share7.1%22nd / 23Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving Grade69.611th / 23Target Share14.7%6th / 23Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceiving Grade60.415th / 23Target Share13.6%11th / 23Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving Grade51.617th / 23Target Share9.4%16th / 23Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving Grade84.23rd / 23Target Share11.4%13th / 23David MontgomeryRB · HSTReceiving Grade67.613th / 23Target Share5.3%23rd / 23Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving Grade47.519th / 23Target Share11.0%14th / 23Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving Grade47.220th / 23Target Share11.8%12th / 23Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceiving Grade50.818th / 23Target Share13.8%10th / 23Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving Grade63.414th / 23Target Share19.6%1st / 23James CookRB · BUFReceiving Grade43.221st / 23Target Share9.1%17th / 23Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLVReceiving Grade89.51st / 23Target Share14.4%7th / 23Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving Grade54.216th / 23Target Share18.0%3rd / 23Tyler AllgeierRB · ARZReceiving Grade67.812th / 23Target Share7.2%20th / 23Aaron JonesRB · MINReceiving Grade30.323rd / 23Target Share14.4%7th / 23D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceiving Grade69.910th / 23Target Share10.2%15th / 23Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceiving Grade42.122nd / 23Target Share8.3%18th / 23Leg 2: RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Over 14.5 receiving yards (-119)
Williams has been a consistent part of Dallas’ passing attack to start the season. He has 15 catches through four games and has topped 14.5 receiving yards in three. Tampa Bay also offers an encouraging matchup, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards (161) to running backs and the third-most receptions (25).
With yards difficult to find on the ground against Tampa Bay’s front, which has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in 2026, Dallas could lean on Williams in the short passing game. Given his receiving usage and the matchup, 15 yards is a reasonable target.
Leg 3: WR George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys: Anytime Touchdown (+120)
On Thursday night, the PFF Matchup Chart gives Pickens a “Good” matchup against Buccaneers cornerbacks Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish. Through four games, he has yet to find the end zone, but a pass interference penalty by Kamari Lassiter in the end zone last week is the only reason that's the case.
Pickens ranks fifth among wide receivers with 25 red-zone targets since joining Dallas, making this a good spot for him to find the end zone for the first time this season.
Leg 4: WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4+ receptions (-117)
There is not a large sample size to work with when it comes to who Jalon Daniels likes to target. In his lone start, Chris Godwin received six targets with an average depth of target of just 0.3 yards.
With a backup quarterback under center and a negative game script expected as 8.5-point underdogs, the Buccaneers could lean on quick, easy throws to generate momentum in the passing game. Godwin should have opportunities to pick up some easy receptions, especially if Tampa Bay is playing from behind.