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During the fantasy season, players fall into certain buckets. There’s the set-and-forget guys, the waiver-wire kings, the steals of the season (be it through trade or just relative to ADP) and the busts. And then there’s the most frustrating one of them all: the boom-or-bust guys.
These are the players who you just can’t quit, because what if they put it together down the stretch and become a set-and-forget for the rest of the season, powering you to a championship? We can all dream.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll be classifying wide receiver and running back booms as any weekly fantasy output of 20 points or more, and busts will be fewer than 10 points.
For tight end, the bust metric will stay the same, but booms will be classed as anything north of 15 points, since tight ends generally score fewer points.
For quarterbacks, the bust metric will be set at fewer than 15 points. The logic is that quarterbacks are, typically, the highest scoring players on a team, given that they touch the ball every play. Sam Darnold, the current QB15 (Lamar Jackson is the QB16 but has missed three games), is averaging 16 points a game, so anything under that feels it could be classified as a bust at that position.
We’ll also be looking at the average gap between the boom-and-bust performances, just to see how wild the swings are.
And, as always, we’re looking at standard-scoring PPR formats here.
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Weekly rankings for standard, PPR, half-PPR and IDP leagues for the 2025 season.
Explore Fantasy RankingsQuarterback
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
- Games of 20-plus points: 5
- Games of sub-15 points: 5
You see it too, right? Five games over 20 points, five games under 15 points. While Jordan Love is playing the best real-life ball of his career, powering the most efficient third-down offense in the NFL, that has not resulted in consistent fantasy play.
Love’s “boom” weeks have been almost perfectly spread out. He had an aggressively OK start to the season in which he logged 15.9, 20.9 and 12.1 points before exploding for 28.3 points in Week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys. Then there was a two-week lull — and a bye — followed by 26.3 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers and another month of mediocrity before he carved up the Detroit Lions for 25.8 points.
Love is getting hot at the right time for Packers fans and fantasy managers entering the playoffs. He has a rough matchup next against a Denver Broncos team that has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league (235), so maybe it’s back to bust.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 13.5 points
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
- Games of 20-plus points: 4
- Games of sub-15 points: 5
Be honest: You expected more from Goff. In dynasty formats, he’s a solid QB2 or a QB1 you’re trying to upgrade.
Even with Ben Johnson going from Detroit to Chicago, many expected Goff and the Lions' offense to cook in 2025.
Having Jahmyr Gibbs (current RB3), Sam LaPorta (TE10 through 10 weeks until injury landed him on injured reserve) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (current WR4) as primary weapons in the offense is an embarrassment of riches.
Having Jameson Williams (current WR21) and David Montgomery (RB24) and secondary or tertiary options is just icing on the cake. And Goff is a top-10 signal-caller on the season (QB9), despite owning six weekly finishes outside of the top 15 at his position.
That’s where the problem arises. Through the first four weeks of the season, Goff logged three sub-20 weekly finishes and a *checks notes* QB1 overall weekly finish. Then, he endured a three-week spell of mediocrity before a QB5 weekly finish.
Since then, the Lions signal-caller has settled in to be somewhere in the middle. But starting Goff with confidence has become a problem. With the Los Angeles Rams, boasting a league-leading PFF defensive grade (89.7) and PFF coverage grade (90.0), and a Pittsburgh Steelers team that holds the third-highest PFF pass-rush grade (83.0) left on the slate, Goff will likely be a boom-or-bust player until the season’s end.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 12.4 points
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Game grades, positional splits and high-level metrics for Goff's 2025 season.
Open Goff's ProfileDishonourable Mentions
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
- Games of 20-plus points: 3
- Games of sub-15 points: 7
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 16.5 points
Not-so-fun fact: Young has two games with fewer than five fantasy points. And one of those came in a win. Against the Green Bay Packers. At Lambeau Field.
Justin Fields, New York Jets
- Games of 20-plus points: 4
- Games of sub-15 points: 4
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 19.2 points
Not-so-fun fact: All of Fields’ performances with fewer than 15 points were actually all under 10 points. An almost 20-point swing between his boom-and-bust weeks will be the official start of your league-mate’s villain arc.
Running Back
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
- Games of 20-plus points: 3
- Games of sub-10 points: 5
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Jeanty’s transcendence in the college game was meant to translate to the NFL, and he was going to take us to fantasy championships for years on end.
Instead, he’s the overall RB13, which is a fine mark in a vacuum for a rookie, but it’s left us all disappointed. Jeanty has three weekly finishes in the RB40s. He’s also had three outings where he’s been a top-five running back for the week.
Unfortunately, you simply cannot predict Jeanty’s output.
It hasn’t helped that he’s been part of a dreadful Raiders offense. It’s also not helped that the sixth overall pick in April’s draft has just 94 yards before contact, ranking 38th out of 41 running backs with at least 100 rushes, and places 39th out of 41 in yards before contact per attempt (0.5).
Jeanty's four rushing touchdowns are also a huge disappointment. That total is level with Blake Corum, Rachaad White, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Tony Pollard, among others. They are all fine backs, but it's not the stratosphere we hoped Jeanty would be in.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 20.1 points
Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
- Games of 20-plus points: 3
- Games of sub-10 points: 5
Dowdle’s boom-or-bust territory hasn’t strictly been about game script or the offensive line he’s running behind. (The Panthers own a 74.2 PFF run-blocking grade, seventh best in the NFL.) It’s been about volume, too.
Dowdle didn’t see more than 10 rushes in each of his first four games before he exploded for 23 and then 30 carries in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively. He logged 25 carries (and two touchdowns) in the Week 9 win in Green Bay, but outside of those high marks, there have been some true lows.
After the first month of the season, Dowdle was essentially a handcuff in all fantasy formats. He accrued just 21.3 fantasy points before his 32.4 points in Week 5.
He has been steadier in the past month, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game and 15 carries a game, but with Chubba Hubbard back in the fold, there’s always a chance Dowdle is the victim of the hot hand.
Such violent swings in fantasy production mean fantasy managers are sweating every time they start him.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 27.5 points
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Game grades, positional splits and high-level metrics for Dowdle's 2025 season.
Open Dowdle's ProfileWide Receiver
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Games of 20-plus points: 4
- Games of sub-10 points: 7
At the start of the summer, it was hard to envision Egbuka being fantasy-relevant right away. The 19th overall pick in April had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan in front of him. Then Week 1 rolled around, and he logged 26.3 points — enough for the WR4 on the week.
Egbuka has also notched a WR1 and WR2 overall weekly finish during his rookie season. But he’s also produced five outings where he’s not ranked in the top 50 at his position for the week, including two in the WR70s.
It appears the receiver may have hit the “rookie wall,” having failed to log double-digit fantasy points since Week 10. And it’s not for the lack of opportunity.
Editor's note: Egbuka eclipsed 10 PPR points in Week 15 (10.4) against the Falcons. However, this article's scope does not include Week 15.
Since Week 10, Egbuka has commanded 27 targets, the same as Puka Nacua. The problem is that he has caught just 10 of those balls for 87 yards and no touchdowns — and a pair of drops.
In that same span, Egbuka owns the worst PFF receiving grade (50.4) among receivers with at least 24 targets, lightyears away from the next player, Rashee Rice (67.2).
The slump has coincided with quarterback Baker Mayfield’s worst stretch of play, too. He has logged a 48.1 PFF passing grade since Week 10, but the result is the same: You’re not starting Egbuka with any confidence right now.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 18.7 points
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
- Games of 20-plus points: 4
- Games of sub-10 points: 5
Brown is getting hot at the right time for fantasy managers, even if the Eagles' offense continues to mystify.
Brown has logged two 25-plus point outings in his past three games (the other being a respectable 16.0 mark) and has seen double-digit targets in each of the past four games.
But you can’t ignore the production before that, which may have resulted in many fantasy managers either trading Brown away or losing with regularity.
The Eagles have attempted the fifth-fewest passes in the league (405), have a slightly above-average explosive play rate (13th, 13.7%) and have run the second-fewest red-zone plays (98), ahead of only the Tennessee Titans (76).
It all points to a passing attack that has been wildly inconsistent.
Since Week 10, Nick Sirianni’s side has perked up, ranking sixth in pass attempts (152), but they’re still a bottom-five offense when it comes to red-zone plays run (28th, 27).
If the upward trajectory continues, then Brown will be a set-and-forget asset for the fantasy playoffs. But be honest: At this stage, you’ve lost most of your confidence in that being the case.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 22.8 points
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Game grades, positional splits and high-level metrics for Brown's 2025 season.
Open Brown's ProfileTight End
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
- Games of 15-plus points: 4
- Games of sub-10 points: 5
Kelce's fantasy owners were hoping he’d be able to put together one more vintage season before, presumably, riding off into the sunset on the back of a Hall-of-Fame career.
He has delivered that, at least in spurts. But he has also delivered continuous signs of decline.
Kelce fits the classic boom-or-bust trend of having three weeks of poor-to-mediocre production before excelling and landing a top-five weekly finish at the position. But by that point, it’s too late because you’ve benched him.
Take the past four weeks as a perfect example. Kelce has logged 24.1, 8.4, 15.5 and 1.8 fantasy points. That sort of inconsistency is not for the weak of heart. His seven top-10 weekly finishes are fine, but his six weekly finishes of TE15 or below encapsulate the boom-or-bust nature perfectly.
Kelce has the second-most yards (727) at the tight end position, but he has yet to log a 100-yard game. In fact, he hasn’t notched more than 100 receiving yards since Week 9 of 2024. His average depth of target (6.8 yards) is also at a 10-year low, while his drop rate (10.4%) is a career high.
It’s these underlying metrics that are keeping Kelce in the boom-or-bust category. For example, against the Eagles in Week 2, he snagged four balls for 61 yards — a respectable 10.1 fantasy points. But he also had two drops. Against the Texans, he caught just one pass for eight yards and put the ball on the ground twice.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 13.2 points
Read More
Fantasy Football: What should we expect from No. 1 overall TEs?
Read More →Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
- Games of 15-plus points: 4
- Games of sub-10 points: 4
Kincaid has missed some time this season due to injuries, but he encapsulates the boom-or-bust nature perfectly. In nine games, he has had a perfect split of boom and bust weeks by the criteria we’ve set.
The 2023 first-round pick has caught 33 balls for 489 yards (14.8 yards per reception, ranks behind only Tucker Kraft) and five touchdowns. The problem is that he doesn’t do much outside of the games where he is hot.
Kincaid has six games with fewer than 50 receiving yards. In three of those outings, he snagged a touchdown to give him a good fantasy day — but touchdowns are a volatile beast. To be a truly consistent fantasy producer, you need volume.
Yet, Kincaid has not logged a double-digit target game since Week 9 of his 2023 rookie season. This year, he hasn’t logged more than six targets in any single game. Without the volume, you’re banking on the explosive plays and touchdowns, two unreliable variables.
Average point differential between boom and bust weeks: 11.2 points