Betting the NFL playoffs doesn’t have to mean choosing between short-priced favorites or pure long shots. By comparing market-implied Super Bowl probabilities to the probabilities derived from PFF’s NFL Power Rankings, we can identify value across multiple tiers of the odds board.
In this article, we target three Super Bowl futures at different price points: one contender priced below +1000, one in the +1000 to +2000 range and one above +2000.
That search turns up three clear candidates at distinct tiers: the Denver Broncos (+700) near the top of the market, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+1300) in the middle range and the Green Bay Packers (+2200) as a longer-shot playoff team with the profile of a disruptor.
TeamPFF CCDraftKings CCDIFF.PFF SBDraftKingsSBDIFF.Broncos26%26%0%15%13%2%Ravens9%9%0%5%4%1%Chargers8%8%0%4%3%1%Texans14%14%0%8%7%1%Bills14%15%-1%8%8%0%Jaguars12%15%-3%7%7%0%Packers8%8%0%4%4%0%Steelers3%3%0%1%1%0%Buccaneers1%1%0%0%1%-1%Panthers1%2%-1%0%1%-1%Bears8%9%-1%3%4%-1%49ers20%21%-1%8%11%-3%Patriots14%21%-7%7%10%-3%Rams21%24%-3%11%15%-4%Eagles13%17%-4%5%9%-4%Seahawks28%29%-1%13%17%-4%Denver Broncos (+700)
The Denver Broncos sit third in Super Bowl odds, but they currently profile as the team with the best chance to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed in a weaker conference. That matters in January, particularly given Denver’s home-field advantage at altitude.
From a path-based standpoint, the Broncos look closer to a top-tier contender than their +700 price suggests. That case is built in the trenches. Denver ranks first in team pass-blocking grade, giving Sean Payton the freedom to stay aggressive, while the defense is one of just two units with multiple top-10 players in total pressures in Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen.
As a unit, the Broncos rank third in pressure rate and third in EPA allowed per run, a combination that travels well and becomes even more valuable if Denver hosts throughout the playoffs.
While offensive consistency remains a question, elite protection, a dominant defense and home-field advantage give the Broncos a clearer Super Bowl path than the market is pricing in at this number.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1300)
At +1300, the Jacksonville Jaguars are priced almost exactly in line with PFF’s Super Bowl projections, but the underlying profile still makes them one of the strongest bets in this odds tier.
Jacksonville is trending the right way at the most important position, with Trevor Lawrence grading as the second-highest-graded quarterback in the NFL over the past five weeks, combining aggressiveness with efficiency. Over that stretch, he’s generated a 10.7-yard average depth of target while posting a 1.0% turnover-worthy play rate, a rare combination that raises the offense’s ceiling without introducing volatility.
That late-season surge has been supported by improved roster balance. The addition of Jakobi Meyers, the emergence of Parker Washington in the slot and the return of Brenton Strange have given Jacksonville answers across the formation, even without Travis Hunter. Defensively, the Jaguars have matched the offense, ranking third in EPA allowed per play over the same five-week span, with Devin Lloyd anchoring the unit as the third-highest-graded linebacker in the NFL and the only one with 80.0-plus PFF grades as a run defender, pass rusher and coverage player.
From a matchup standpoint, Jacksonville is also positioned well. As a likely No. 2 seed, the Jaguars could draw a first-round matchup against either the Los Angeles Chargers or Buffalo Bills, neither of which profiles as a significant mismatch. The more important piece comes in Round 2, where New England would be the most likely opponent.
The Patriots benefited from the easiest schedule in the NFL and were less convincing against playoff-caliber teams, splitting their two games with Buffalo, losing to Pittsburgh and escaping with narrow wins over Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
Jacksonville has already shown it can win in hostile environments — including a recent road victory in Denver — making its projected postseason path one of the more favorable among teams in this odds range.
Green Bay Packers (+2200)
The Green Bay Packers are headed for the No. 7 seed for the third straight season, and while recent playoff exits — a divisional-round loss in 2023 and a wild-card loss in 2024 — may depress market confidence, that experience matters for a team priced at +2200.
Green Bay has been here before, and the expectation is they’ll manage Week 18 differently this time around, likely resting key starters to avoid the late-season injuries that hurt them last year. For a young roster that’s taken its lumps in January, simply entering the playoffs healthier raises its baseline outcome.
The Packers’ appeal is rooted in their control of explosive plays. Defensively, they rank fifth in explosive pass rate allowed, while the offense sits second in explosive pass rate, giving Green Bay a rare ability to both limit chunk plays and generate them. That shows up in the details: under Jeff Hafley, the Packers have been one of the league’s best tackling teams, ranking first in yards after the catch allowed per completion and first in team tackling grade.
A potential Round 2 matchup with San Francisco is the obvious concern given Kyle Shanahan’s playoff success against Matt LaFleur, but this version of the 49ers defense ranks 31st in defensive success rate, its weakest profile in that span.
At this price point, Green Bay doesn’t need a clean path — just a couple of swing games — and their explosive-play profile gives them exactly that kind of upside.