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The wild-card round is in the books after a crazy weekend. We are down to eight, and this is when it becomes all hands on deck for each team as they try and keep their season alive.
We’re going to look at one player for each team that could be make-or-break for each team’s playoff hopes this coming weekend. We’re not going to include quarterbacks because, by nature, a quarterback is the most important player on the field, and this article wouldn’t be very interesting otherwise.
Denver Broncos: CB Riley Moss
Facing a guy with an arm like Josh Allen at high altitudes is not the matchup the Broncos probably envisioned when they earned the AFC’s top seed. Despite the Bills’ lack of a true No. 1 receiver, Allen has still been able to sling the ball all over the field, finishing 10th in the league with a 78.8 passing grade in the regular season.
While the Broncos haven’t needed to worry about the productivity of corners like Pat Surtain II and Ja’Quan McMillan, Riley Moss has been less consistent. On the season, he carries a 62.2 coverage grade while playing the most coverage snaps of any corner in the regular season. That number has been accrued after several volatile performances, as Moss has four games with a coverage grade near or over 75.0, but he also has five games with a coverage grade below 50.0. If Denver can get a strong performance out of Moss, the Bills may struggle to throw the ball downfield, playing right into the hands of Denver’s elite pass rush.
New England Patriots: OT Will Campbell
The big knock plaguing Patriots rookie tackle Will Campbell when he was coming out of LSU was his abnormally short arms that may limit his ability to gain control over pass rushers. While this concern appears to have been a bit overblown at times, as Campbell finished his rookie year with a 76.1 pass-blocking grade that was right in line with his 76.6 overall grade, his issues did show up in the Patriots’ wild-card round victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
While Campbell had his best run blocking performance of the season with an 84.3 grade, he also put up his second-worst pass blocking grade at 60.8, allowing five pressures, including a sack. While Campbell has shown he was worth the Patriots’ trust in him to be the fourth overall pick in the draft, he’ll need to be much better in pass protection against a pass rush that has a plethora of guys who can beat you.
Houston Texans: EDGE Danielle Hunter
The Patriots had their struggles in pass protection against the Chargers in the wild-card round, and their offense suffered as a result, as Drake Maye wasn’t able to get much going when he wasn’t using his legs to evade pressure. The Will Campbell and Jared Wilson rookie tandem on the left side of the Patriots' offensive line particularly struggled.
As previously mentioned, Campbell had his second-worst pass-blocking performance of the season while Wilson struggled even more with a 40.6 pass-blocking grade. The Texans don’t often flip their defensive linemen, so Danielle Hunter is expected to line up primarily on the side featuring the two rookies. Hunter was outstanding in the regular season, particularly as a pass-rusher, as he carried a 90.1 grade in that field, ranking fifth amongst all edge defenders. It won’t get any easier if he flips sides with Will Anderson Jr., whose 91.6 pass-rush grade ranked fourth.
Buffalo Bills: RB James Cook
The Broncos have a very imposing defense that has been among the very best at getting after the quarterback all season, as they feature eight defensive linemen that rank in the top half of their respective positions in terms of PFF grade. That could pose a potential problem for the Bills’ offense, as Josh Allen goes from an elite quarterback (90.3 passing grade when kept clean, ranking sixth) to just mediocre when pressured (52.4 passing grade, which ranks 18th). If the Broncos can get pressure against the Bills like they have all season, the onus may fall on the running game to pick up the slack.
Luckily for the Bills, they had the fourth-most efficient rushing attack in the league in the regular season, as they averaged 0.055 EPA per run play, trailing only the Bears among playoff teams. James Cook has been a big reason after a dominant season, as he carried an 84.4 rushing grade in the regular season. Cook carried the ball 315 times for 1,650 yards, 993 of which came after contact. He also earned 12 touchdowns and forced 64 missed tackles. If the Broncos manage to get after Allen, Cook may just be what saves Buffalo’s season.
Seattle Seahawks: LB Ernest Jones
With all the injuries the 49ers are dealing with on offense, expect them to lean heavily on running back Christian McCaffrey. Ernest Jones will likely be tasked with shutting down McCaffrey in the ground game and in coverage, both of which have come with mixed results.
On the season, Jones has performed very well defending the run, as his 75.6 figure ranks 23rd out of 89 qualifying linebackers this season. However, he’s struggled in coverage, as his 48.0 grade ranks 61st. That being said, Jones has saved his best for the 49ers, as Seattle’s two matchups with its divisional foes saw him record an 82.5 overall grade, including 80.3 against the run and 75.9 in coverage in those games.
Chicago Bears: EDGE Montez Sweat
Matthew Stafford injured his throwing hand in the Rams’ win over the Panthers in the wild-card round, and while he did make some clutch throws late in the game, it was very apparent that he wasn’t 100% for much of the contest. If things don’t improve with his hand throughout the week, a dominant pass rush could wreak havoc on a Rams offense that ranked at or near the top in many major categories throughout the season.
That could be a lot to ask for a Chicago pass rush that ranked 24th in PFF pass-rushing grade at just 64.8 in the regular season and 28th in pressures with 263. Montez Sweat is on a bit of a hot streak, though, as he’s had a pass-rush grade close to or over 70.0 in four of his last five games, including a 73.6 figure in the wild-card win over the Green Bay Packers. With another big game like that, the Bears could be in prime position to return to their first NFC Championship game since the 2010 season.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Puka Nacua
As previously mentioned, Stafford is not expected to be 100% when the Rams go to Chicago to take on the Bears. He’s going to need some of his offensive playmakers to step up, and who better than Puka Nacua to pick up the slack?
Nacua set a PFF record for a wide receiver in the regular season with a 96.1 grade both overall and in receiving. In fact, Nacua only had a receiving grade below 70.0 once all season, which was a 67.9 number against the Baltimore Ravens all the way back in Week 6 when he sprained his ankle. The Rams will need Nacua to continue this stretch of dominance to help an ailing Stafford and bring the Rams to their first NFC Championship appearance since their 2021 Super Bowl run.
San Francisco 49ers: RB Christian McCaffrey
Perhaps nobody has been hit harder by the injury bug these last two seasons than the 49ers, who lost superstar tight end George Kittle to an Achilles injury in their win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Add him to a list that includes Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams, just to name a few.
The 49ers are going to be limited in options on offense when they go into Seattle and take on a Seahawks team that throttled them defensively last time they met, allowing just three points in their Week 18 matchup.
One man who has managed to avoid the injury bug this season has been McCaffery, who narrowly missed his second career season with 1,000 yards rushing andreceiving. McCaffrey is one of the few major weapons remaining for the 49ers, but we’ve seen him take over games in the past and nearly single-handedly lead his teams to victory. The Seahawks have had his number this season, though, as McCaffrey failed to record a PFF grade over 60.0 in either meeting. Look for Brock Purdy to rely on him early and often.