Week 16 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 17. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans [Total: 39.5]
Best Bet: Saints -2.5
The Saints have put their best foot forward at the tail end of the 2025 campaign. They’ve covered in five of their past six games, including a pair of outright wins as the road underdog. The team's defense has set the tone, posting an NFL-best -0.208 EPA per play allowed since Week 10 and restricting opposing offenses to just 4.4 yards per play.
The Titans are coming off their most impressive performance of the year, a 27-point victory over the battered Chiefs. Yet, Tennessee’s offense was modest from an efficiency standpoint, generating positive EPA on 41.1% of plays (23rd highest in Week 16) and scoring on four of 10 drives. It may be more difficult for that group to find points against a stout Saints defense in Week 17.
On defense, Tennessee possesses a strong front-seven but struggles on the backend. Over the past three games, the Titans' defense charts in the top three in limiting successful runs (21.9%) but in the bottom 10 in successful passes allowed (39.5%).
That could play into New Orleans’ strengths as first-year quarterback Tyler Shough continues to find his rhythm. Over the Saints’ three-game win streak, Shough owns the sixth-highest PFF overall grade (86.2) among quarterbacks. His 90.6% adjusted completion rate on throws over the middle leads the NFL over that span. Meanwhile, the Titans' defense has surrendered the fourth-highest passer rating (117.9) on throws between the numbers.
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Explore Top Player PropsTampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Miami Dolphins [Total: 46.5]
Best Bet: Dolphins +5.5
The Bengals shellacked the Dolphins 45-21 in Week 16. A closer look reveals that the game was a bit closer than the final score shows, though. The Dolphins and Bengals averaged the same number of yards per play, and only a few fluky turnovers from the Dolphins — namely, a fumble and a tipped interception — turned the game on its head.
Those turnovers are likely less sticky than the underlying numbers, which show that Miami's offense was able to move the ball. The Dolphins now play a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom five in the NFL in yards per dropback, yards per attempt and passing EPA.
On the flip side, the Buccaneers continue to struggle on offense, with quarterback Baker Mayfield producing negative EPA in Week 16 again. He’s now had just one positive EPA game since appearing to injure himself in Week 7.
Tampa Bay's offense has been good from a season-long point of view, but it's a bottom-10 unit since Week 7. The Buccaneers are priced nearly seven points better than Miami on a neutral field, which is simply too much.