2025 Fantasy Football Season In Review: What Nathan Jahnke got right and wrong

Estimated Reading Time: 40 minutes

With the fantasy football season over, it’s time to review the fantasy draft season and identify what went well, what went wrong, and what was a grey area. This is to be transparent, particularly regarding my rankings and preseason recap articles, to see where I can improve for the 2026 season. 

This article primarily compares my final 2025 cheat sheet to FantasyPros' consensus 2025 ADP and how well players performed. For this article, I primarily care about where I was right and wrong compared to ADP, rather than where everyone was right or wrong. I had Aaron Rodgers 27th among quarterbacks, and he finished 27th in points per game, but his ADP was also 27th, so getting him right is ignored for this article. 

Secondarily, I look at my 30 top takeaways from the first, second and third weeks of the preseason. Fantasy points per game were generally the benchmark for how well players did, rather than total fantasy points, as injuries aren’t very predictable. All advice referenced in this article applies only to single-quarterback redraft leagues using PPR scoring and doesn’t necessarily apply to best ball or dynasty. 

What I got right

Drafting Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of Saquon Barkley

The consensus top four players in fantasy drafts were Ja’Marr Chase, Robinson, Barkley and Gibbs. The top overall running back was different depending on which site you looked at, as there was a relatively small gap between Robinson and Barkley. Gibbs was consistently the third running back option, at times ranking below the second or third-best wide receivers. I was low on Barkley, ranking him as my eighth overall player. Anyone who drafted strictly based on my rankings would not have any Barkley shares.  Robinson and Gibbs both ended the season among the top three running backs in points per game and total points, while Barkley was 14th in total points and 15th in points per game.

There were concerns when Barkley joined the Philadelphia Eagles around his rushing touchdowns total because Jalen Hurts sneaked in most touchdowns from the one-yard line. There were also concerns about his receiving production, given the Eagles' receivers and Hurts’ willingness to run under pressure rather than dump off passes. Those have been a problem for Barkley each of the last two seasons, but he made up for it in 2024 by breaking long touchdowns at a historic rate. It was noted that if you removed the 15 or more yard touchdowns from every running back in 2024, he would have finished seventh.

This season, he had six fewer touchdown runs of 15 or more yards, accounting for over half of his dropoff in fantasy points. His other problem this season was the offensive line. All three interior linemen graded slightly worse than last season, although right guard Tyler Steen was a step up in pass protection over Mekhi Becton in 2024. Jordan Mailata was historically excellent at run blocking in 2024, earning our top run blocker and offensive lineman awards. This season, his 79.9 grade was good but not nearly as strong as in 2024. At right tackle, Lane Johnson spent half the season injured, and Fred Johnson wasn’t at Johnson’s level.

The offensive line regression was more likely to happen than not, but it was more extreme than expected. This turned Barkley from being a predictable pass at his ADP to the biggest disappointment at running back of the season.

Having Puka Nacua as the third overall receiver and a top-five pick

Nacua was the top overall wide receiver of the 2025 season, averaging 23.4 PPR points per game. He was a borderline first-round fantasy pick by most experts. His consensus was WR6, behind Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown, and just slightly ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and Nico Collins. I had him ranked as WR3 and as the fifth overall player to target. He was a frequent player, leading off the perfect draft strategy articles for any pick in the second half of the first round.

His player profile noted he averaged 0.216 receptions per route and 0.3 targets per route over the last two seasons, which both rank the best among wide receivers. His 37.1% target rate last season was the highest among all wide receivers with at least 75 routes run in the last 19 years. His 3.56 yards per route run ranks third best, behind Steve Smith in 2008 and Tyreek Hill in 2023.

The biggest concern around Nacua was Matthew Stafford‘s health. Stafford didn’t grade as well as usual in 2024, and Nacua’s fantasy production was just fine. Jimmy Garoppolo’s grades weren’t all that different than Stafford’s in 2024, and Nacua’s production wasn’t built on deep passes, which is where Garoppolo struggled the most. Stafford ended up staying healthy and playing at an MVP level, which helped Nacua be the clear top wide receiver. However, even if Stafford just had a good season, Nacua could have still finished as the top overall wide receiver.

Drafting Trey McBride and George Kittle ahead of Brock Bowers

My longest article on a single topic last season was why Bowers shouldn’t be drafted as his ADP, meaning a fantasy manager would be better off waiting to pick McBride or Kittle. The consensus ended up with Bowers as the 19th overall pick, McBride 27th and Kittle 37th. I had McBride 18th, Kittle 25th and Bowers 30th. McBride finished with 18.9 PPR points per game, Kittle earned 15.4 and Bowers finished with 14.7, ranking first, second and third.

The change in coach, quarterback and the Ashton Jeanty addition added much more uncertainty around Bowers, compared to McBride and Kittle, who experienced minimal changes over the offseason. His preseason usage was enough to move Bowers down my rankings. Michael Mayer was playing significant snaps over Bowers in 11 personnel, particularly on early downs. 

Regarding 11 personnel usage on first and second downs, I noted that Bowers “played 49% of the snaps over the first three weeks last season, 72% when Mayer was gone, 79% once Mayer returned and 27% over three drives this preseason. In Ertz’s best year under Chip Kelly, he played 61%, and in his worst, he was at 23%. Any of those is a possibility.” I estimated his rate would be 60% after the preseason. He ended up playing 61.8% of his team's offensive snaps in games where Mayer was active and healthy, and 72.7% over all of his games.

Injuries likely impacted the quality of play of Bowers, increasing the gap between him and McBride, but this was also true for Kittle.

The wide receivers to target in the fifth to seventh rounds

Seventeen wide receivers had an ADP in the fifth, sixth or seventh rounds. There were seven players from that group I was higher on relative to ADP. That included three rookies in Travis Hunter, Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan in addition to four veterans in Rashee Rice, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle and Jameson Williams. Six of the seven outperformed their ADP. Most notably, Olave was one of the players I was highest on throughout the draft process, and he was the best wide receiver pick in this range relative to ADP.

Olave was notably one of two players that I ranked over 20 spots higher than ADP among the top-75 players. In the bottom line of his player profile, I noted “Olave has the talent to be a top-15 fantasy option, as new head coach Kellen Moore could help him thrive.” The article noted his lack of competition for targets could lead to a high target rate, an increase in routes out of the slot, and Moore’s history of success with receivers lined up in the slot. His PFF grade remained largely unchanged, but he ran 42% of his routes from the slot, up from 28% in 2024, and was more successful. He was among the top five receivers in targets and receptions.

Similarly, there were seven wide receivers I was lower on relative to ADP, including Xavier Worthy, D.J. Moore, DeVonta Smith, Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Five of the seven performed worse than their ADP. Sutton was 22nd in both ADP and fantasy points per game, while Pickens was the one miss from the group. 

My confidence in the wide receivers in this round was enough to build a winning draft strategy. Most of the perfect draft strategies included drafting at least two of these wide receivers. This led the draft strategy articles to often include two running backs, one wide receiver and a tight end in the first four rounds, knowing other starting wide receivers and a top backup could be found in these rounds. The only early-round running backs that were busts were Barkley, who was already mentioned, in addition to Bucky Irving and Omarion Hampton, primarily due to injury rather than quality of play.

Hunter and Pickens were two big misses in this range, and we will talk more about them later in the article, but being right on 11 of 13 wide receivers in this range is a high hit rate.

The Pittsburgh Steelers backfield

The Steelers moved on from Najee Harris last offseason, adding Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the draft and added Kenneth Gainwell in free agency to go along with Jaylen Warren. The consensus was that Warren would be the third-down back in addition to Warren and Johnson splitting early-down snaps and carries, while Gainwell was an afterthought. Warren’s role had increased as 2024 progressed; he graded well as a runner over his career, and coaches' comments led me to be higher on Warren than most.

Warren sat with the other starters in the first preseason game. Gainwell took the first four offensive snaps, while Johnson took over from there. This meant that Gainwell was second on the depth chart at that point, although it wasn’t too surprising for a rookie running back to start the preseason further down the depth chart. In the second preseason game, Gainwell took the first five snaps over two drives, while Johnson took over.

The final preseason game was most alarming. The Steelers played more starters in that game than in the first two, including Warren and Pat Freiermuth at tight end. Warren took eight snaps over the first two drives, while Gainwell took five. Gainwell was the third-down back. This was very alarming because it no longer meant that Johnson just needed to surpass Gainwell on the depth chart, as he was now fighting with Warren for any snaps on early downs. Players like Freiermuth, wide receiver Roman Wilson and tight end Darnell Washington all played later in the game than the two running backs, suggesting Gainwell’s role was more solidified in the offense than those other players.

Johnson ended up as RB28 by ADP, while Warren at 29, and Gainwell was at 88. I had Warren at 22, Johnson at 41 and Gainwell at 64. While I ideally would have placed Gainwell ahead of Johnson, it seemed like Gainwell’s role would be a third-down back at that time, which generally isn’t valuable for fantasy purposes. Warren ended up at RB19, while Gainwell was 20, and Johnson had less than 100 yards and no touchdowns on the season.

Fading the older, mid-round tight ends

Tight end was an interesting position heading into 2025. Beyond the clear top-three options, several older players were no longer at their peak and a bunch of younger, unproven players. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, David Njoku and Evan Engram were all 29 years old or older and four of the top 10 tight ends in both 2022 and 2023, but most of them didn’t play as well in 2024. They were all among the top-nine options by ADP, but I had each of them ranked a full round lower than ADP, if not more.

The concern for each tight end was a decline in quality of play, which was attributed to various factors. For Kelce, it was Rashee Rice's return. For Andrews, Isaiah Likely‘s continued emergence led to a tight end rotation. For Njoku, the Browns offense, in general, led to a lack of upside. For Engram, it was Sean Payton’s history with veteran tight ends.

Kelce was the only one from the group to finish the season as a top-20 fantasy tight end. Kelce finished ninth in fantasy points per game, making this his worst season in receiving yards per game since his rookie season. The Baltimore Ravens‘ struggling offense hurt Andrews more than expected, and Harold Fannin Jr.‘s emergence hurt Njoku, but these tight ends weren’t doing enough regardless of the additional obstacles. Fantasy managers would have been better off drafting a tight end early or waiting.

Mid-round tight ends to target instead

Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren were the two tight ends I had ranked higher than the four veterans, but their ADPs were lower. I also had Dalton Kincaid and Colston Loveland ranked higher than Evan Engram, even though their ADPs were nearly three rounds later.

Kraft was excellent on a per-target basis in 2024, and the Green Bay Packerscoaching staff was vocal about their desire to get Kraft more involved. His target rate increased from 14.5% in 2024 to 19.1% in 2025, and his per-target stats weren’t compromised. He was tied with Brock Bowers in fantasy points per game at 14.7, but his season was cut in half due to injury. 

Warren, Loveland and Kincaid all finished in the top 16 in fantasy points per game. While they weren’t all consistent fantasy starters over the season, they were at least generally better options than the veteran tight ends picked a few rounds earlier.

Ranking most late-round gems higher than ADP

Most players who turned out to be fantasy starters were drafted in the first several rounds of fantasy drafts. Most of the players who found fantasy success that weren’t drafted as high were higher in my rankings than ADP.

• Daniel Jones was the one quarterback to be drafted outside of the top-24 quarterbacks to rank among the top 12 in points per game. I had him ranked 26th among quarterbacks, while ADP was 33rd.
• Cam Skattebo was the best running back in fantasy points per game drafted outside of the top 100 players. I had Skattebo ranked RB33, while his ADP was RB36. Kenneth Gainwell (RB64 to RB88), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB36 to RB38) and Rico Dowdle (RB55 to RB58) were the other three running backs to average 12.5 PPR points per game or better but get drafted outside of the top-100 players.
• The only running backs to score at least 120 total points while getting drafted outside of the top 250 players were Gainwell and Kyle Monangai (RB44 to RB71).
• The top two running backs that I was over 100 overall spots higher than ADP were Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB52 to RB77) and Isaiah Davis (RB61 to RB118). They finished 48th and 64th in points per game, respectively.
• At wide receiver, 22 wide receivers scored at least 200 PPR points. The only wide receivers picked outside of the top 100 players to make that list were Michael Wilson (WR74 to WR82), Wan’Dale Robinson (WR56 to WR63) and Michael Pittman Jr. (WR46 to WR47).
• Every wide receiver to finish in the top 30 in points ranked among the top 80 in ADP, except Parker Washington (WR104 to WR129).
• The eight tight ends I was highest on relative to consensus was A.J. Barner (TE35 to TE52), Chig Okonkwo (TE15 to TE27), Oronde Gadsden (TE40 to TE50), Cade Stover (TE46 to TE56), Theo Johnson (TE29 to TE38), Gunnar Helm (TE47 to TE55), Juwan Johnson (TE30 to TE37) and Tyler Higbee (TE33 to TE40). Six of the eight outperformed ADP, while Okonkwo matched his ADP, with Stover as the one miss.

Most other preseason nuggets ended up being true

Several of the points made in my top 10 preseason recap articles were already brought up in previous points. There were a number of other observations from the preseason that turned out to be true.

• The Jets used a three-man rotation at running back with their starters in the preseason, as Breece Hall shared early-down snaps with Braelon Allen, while Isaiah Davis played on third downs. Hall played 80% of the first- and second-down snaps with the starters, but none of the third- or fourth-down snaps. Hall played 69.2% of the first- and second-down snaps in the regular season when all three running backs were healthy and 20% of the third-down snaps. That increased to 73.8% and 30.8%, with Allen missing most of the season.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt notably started at running back in the first preseason game for Washington. Washington traded Brian Robinson Jr. soon after. Croskey-Merritt led the team in early-down snaps over the first two weeks while Austin Ekeler was still healthy and had a 54.4% early-down snap rate over the entire season.
• Jaguars wide receiver Travis Hunter played 100% of the 11-personnel snaps and 0% of the 12-personnel snaps with the starters in the preseason. Those rates were 90.9% and 1.8% in the regular season while he was healthy.
• Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson played only three of 11 snaps out of 12 personnel with the starters in the preseason, while Zay Jones took most of the snaps from him, unlike in 2024. During the seven weeks when both wide receivers were healthy, Wilson played 68.5% of the 12-personnel snaps compared to Jones' 45.7%. Wilson’s 12-personnel rate didn’t drop as low as it did during the preseason, but it was a notable drop before the Cardinals began losing most of their wide receivers.
• The Raiders spent the preseason with Dont’e Thornton Jr. as their X receiver, Tre Tucker at Z and Jakobi Meyers in the slot, while Jack Bech was a backup, even though Bech was drafted before Thornton. Bech only played 24.5% of the offensive snaps over the first 12 weeks compared to Thornton's 52.0%, while Bech took Thornton’s spot starting in Week 13.
• Josh Whyle had fallen to fourth on the Tennessee Titans‘ depth chart at tight end in their first preseason game, despite being second throughout the 2024 season. He was ultimately released and landed with the Packers.
• The Seahawks released Noah Fant before the preseason, leading most to expect a competition between A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo for snaps at tight end. The first preseason game suggested Eric Saubert would also be part of that rotation. He played ahead of Arroyo in the first game and took 11 of 19 snaps in the second game with the starters. He played 36.7% of the offensive snaps over the season when healthy, which was just slightly less than Arroyo’s 39.4% rate.
• Nick Chubb started the second preseason game for the Houston Texans over Dameon Pierce. Chubb spent the first half of the season as the Texans' starter, while Pierce was released midseason.
• The Texans also played their starting wide receivers in the second preseason game. While Jayden Higgins was listed as a starter on Houston’s unofficial depth chart, Xavier Hutchinson took 10 of 12 snaps with the starters. Christian Kirk similarly played ahead of Jaylin Noel. Hutchinson and Kirk remained the primary players to join Nico Collins in 11 personnel throughout the regular season.
• Titans fourth-round rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor only played four snaps with the starters in their first game, but 27 of 29 over the following two. He ended up ahead of Van Jefferson on the depth chart and played 79.5% of the Titans' offensive snaps when healthy.
• The Bears were the most revealing team in the final week of the preseason, playing Luther Burden III just one snap with the starters while playing into the third quarter. Colston Loveland was in a rotation with Cole Kmet at tight end. Burden didn’t reach a 30% snap rate until Week 10. Kmet had a 69.5% snap rate throughout the season compared to Loveland's 63.2%, as the two remained in a rotation throughout the season.

A few bold predictions, technically

I had a bold predictions article, where I generally only expect one or two predictions to come true. This year was more successful than past years, as I ended up with two right, one tie, one that was wrong but very close, while the other was completely wrong.

• Jayden Daniels leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points. – This was not close to being true.
• Jordan Mason scores more fantasy points than Aaron Jones. – Mason scored 119.5 points compared to Jones' 118.7, largely due to Jones missing three games due to injury, but this was technically true using points rather than points per game.
• The Day 3 rookie wide receiver with the most fantasy production finishes better than any Day 2 rookie wide receiver. – This was a tie, as Day 2 rookie, Luther Burden III, and Day 3 rookie, Chimere Dike, tied with 120.4 PPR points.
• Rashee Rice finishes in the top five in fantasy points for wide receivers from Weeks 7-17. – Rice finished WR11 during this time span, although he missed the final two games due to injury. He was fifth in points per game during this time, so it was close.
• Brock Bowers finishes outside of the top two fantasy tight ends. – This was true.

What I got wrong

The Minnesota Vikings offense

I believed the Vikings were capable of having one of the best offenses in the league this season. In J.J. McCarthy’s player profile, I noted Kevin O’Connell’s success with other quarterbacks. “His offenses have been great for quarterbacks. The Vikings typically run an average-to-high number of plays and are consistently passing the ball at a high rate. Sam Darnold was a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season, Kirk Cousins was in 2022, and in 2023, he was top 10 in points per game. In 2023, after Cousins' injury, Dobbs was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of four games he played 100% of his team's offensive snaps, while Nick Mullens was a top-14 fantasy quarterback when he played 100% of the snaps. Both Dobbs and Mullens had weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback.”

McCarthy ended up with a 60.1 PFF passing grade, worse than Cousins, Darnold, Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens over the last four seasons. Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer also started for Minnesota at times in 2025, and they both graded worse than McCarthy.

I also expected a notable improvement in the Vikings' offensive line. I detailed that in Jordan Mason’s player profile. “The Vikings had a relatively average offensive line last season, which should be notably better this season, depending on how quickly the line can gain chemistry. Their best run blocker, Christian Darrisaw, missed over half of last season. The Vikings' guards were underwhelming last season, so they upgraded with Will Fries in one spot. It’s hard to predict exactly how well a rookie offensive lineman will do in their first season, but first-round rookieDonovan Jackson should be an upgrade at the left guard spot. The 49ers always had a top-10 offensive line when Mason was on the team, so if anything, this could be a step down for him.”

Injuries derailed the season for the Vikings' offensive line, only leading to slight improvements rather than substantial ones. Most notably, center Ryan Kelly missed half the season, while both offensive tackles missed a combined nine games. The linemen were consistent members of the Vikings' injury reports, even when they weren’t missing games.

This all contributed to Justin Jefferson being the biggest fantasy disappointment of the season. I was particularly high on Mason, believing the Vikings would be a high-scoring offense, which would lead to several touchdowns. I also expected them to be playing with a lead more frequently, leading to more rushing attempts by the team. Mason’s 82.9 rushing grade was 10th-best among running backs with at least 150 carries, and his 4.8 yards per carry was also 10th-best, suggesting he could have been a better running back with more opportunities. He only scored six touchdowns, leading to 8.0 PPR points per game. The game scripts also led Aaron Jones to play more snaps than expected.

I was similarly high on McCarthy and tight end T.J. Hockenson, but neither one played up to expectations because of the Vikings’ passing game.

The Seattle Seahawks offense

The Seahawks completely reworked their offense this offseason, as they brought in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, new quarterback Sam Darnold, two new wide receivers in Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton, while long-time members of the offense Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant all left. These changes suggested the Seahawks would be one of the most run-heavy teams. They ran 507 times compared to 481 passing attempts, ranking third in rushing attempts while throwing the fourth-lowest in passing attempts, so the run-heavy part of their offense turned out to be true.

The first part of the offense where I was wrong was Zach Charbonnet’s effectiveness. Kubiak historically has used a zone-heavy offense, which seemed to benefit Walker and hurtZach Charbonnet. Walker missed most of August. That, and positive press around Charbonnet, led me to be high on both running backs. The two spent the entire season in a committee, leading them to finish 31st and 32nd in fantasy points per game. Both running backs' receiving production was cut in half from last season, making it harder for either to be successful from a fantasy perspective. The general reason for being high on both is that one would eventually emerge as the clear lead running back, or one of them would get hurt, but that never happened.

The changes on offense also led me to be low on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was WR14 by ADP, and I had him at 19. The concern was entirely around his quantity of targets, as the new coordinator had so many new players, and the Seahawks' quality of passing attempts. However, Smith-Njigba was targeted on 31.7% of his routes, a 10% increase from the previous season. There have only been four wide receivers with a better target rate with at least 150 targets over the last 20 seasons.

While I can live with not being able to predict when a player will see that big of an increase in target rate to a historic level, I generally focus more on volume than talent. There could be something I missed around Smith-Njigba’s talent that I will need to dig deeper into this offseason.

Ranking Drake Maye and George Pickens too low

Joining Smith-Njigba among the most improved players in 2025 are Maye and Pickens. For both players, my rankings weren’t so much about believing they wouldn’t do well, as it was more about being higher on other players. For both players, I was just a few spots lower than ADP. Similar to Smith-Njigba, there could have been something about their talent that I missed, but there is also a reason they were all considered among the most improved players, as they didn’t play nearly as well in the past.

Ranking Jonathan Taylor and James Cook too low

This was a special year for running backs, in that there were no abnormal busts. Fourteen running backs had an ADP within the first 35 picks, and they all finished among the top 18 in points per game. As noted earlier, Saquon Barkley was the biggest bust due to quality of play, while Bucky Irving and Omarion Hampton missed significant time due to injury. There were players later in the group that I was high on who did well, such as Chase Brown and Kyren Williams, but I was also low on Taylor and Cook.

Both Taylor and Cook had been high-risk, high-reward running backs who were capable of making big plays, but they were not consistent enough. For most of the season, Taylor earned more rewards than risks. He was the only running back with double-digit runs with +1 grades in addition to five or more runs with +1.5 or better grades. Almost all of that occurred in the first 12 weeks of the season, where he averaged 25.7 PPR points per game. He only had one run of +1 or better over the final third of the season, as he averaged 13.3 PPR points per game during that stretch. I also anticipated D.J. Giddens getting more involved, given Taylor’s injury history. Instead, he played 84.2% of the Colts‘ offensive snaps, leading all running backs.

Cook's concerns were similar to Barkley's but to a lesser extent. He similarly has a quarterback fully capable of scoring short-yardage touchdowns, and a high percentage of his 2024 production was breaking long runs for touchdowns. However, Cook made up for this with a significant increase in volume. Buffalo was getting Ray Davis more involved in the run game in 2024, as the Bills‘ general offensive philosophy has been to heavily rotate their running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. The wide receiver and tight end rotations got more intense this season, but the backfield became more of a two-man rotation with Cook and Ty Johnson, rather than three. Cook graded slightly worse as a runner in 2025, but the increase in volume more than made up for it.

Mixed results

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense

The Jaguars were another offense I expected to significantly improve, particularly in their passing game. Part of that was the addition of head coach Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence had stretches throughout his NFL career where he was a great NFL quarterback and other stretches where he seemed better suited to be a backup. In his player profile, I described how I expected Coen’s presence to help Lawrence.

“One big reason for optimism for Lawrence is how well Baker Mayfield played last season in Coen’s system. Mayfield received a 72.8 passing grade in 2023, which is very comparable to Lawrence in recent seasons, and Mayfield’s passing game jumped to 82.4 in 2024. Similarly, his fantasy points per game jumped from 16.7 to 22.5. Lawrence has generally run the ball more often than Mayfield, so there is room for Lawrence’s fantasy production to be even higher.

Lawrence’s time to throw was consistently low during his time under Doug Pederson, but his average depth of target skyrocketed, leading to lower accuracy rates. We should expect his average target depth to decrease considerably. Lawrence’s deep ball accuracy over the last three years was in the bottom quarter of the league, but he finished in the top quarter of the league on short passes. The change in offensive philosophy should be a great asset to his fantasy value.”

His average depth of target decreased but not as much as expected. His grade reached a career-high, thanks to improved big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates. His rushing attempts per game also reached a career high, along with a career-high nine rushing touchdowns. Lawrence had a QB20 ADP, but I had him at QB11, making him a consistent mention in perfect draft strategy articles. He finished the season fifth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks.

The problem is that I was subsequently high on Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. The slot receivers in Coen’s offenses had been excellent in the past, and both Thomas and Hunter were expected to play significant snaps in the slot. Thomas was exceptional in his rookie season, and Hunter was the second overall pick in the draft. For whatever reason, neither player worked out. Instead, Parker Washington was one of the top breakout players of the season, and the team traded for Jakobi Meyers. They finished 13th and 28th, respectively, over the final third of the season, while Thomas was WR39 during that stretch. Most fantasy managers who took my advice this season, unfortunately, drafted one of these two receivers more often than not. 

Waiting to pick a quarterback

After completing several drafts and mock drafts leading up to August, it became clear that it was very difficult to have a strong team that drafts both a quarterback and tight end early, as well as avoiding quarterback and tight end early. I concluded that it is best to pick a tight end rather than a quarterback early, based on the likelihood that the top tight ends would remain the top tight ends compared to the quarterback position in addition to the relative depth at the two positions.

This was the right thing to do, as the top three tight ends by ADP finished as the top three tight ends in fantasy points per game, while Josh Allen remained the top quarterback, but Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow all finished outside of the top 12 quarterbacks in points per game and even lower overall due to time missed from injury.

I was particularly low on the quarterbacks in the middle rounds of the draft, while Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix and Kyler Murray were the three options to pick from Rounds 6-8. I had all three at least 16 picks lower than their ADP, and none of them finished among the top-10 quarterbacks in points per game.

The general strategy of picking two quarterbacks late was the right approach, as six of the 14 quarterbacks with a consensus ADP from 10-23 finished among the top-nine quarterbacks. While this was the right strategy, I was hit-and-miss on which quarterbacks in this range to target.

I was generally higher on Brock Purdy, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, J.J. McCarthy and Trevor Lawrence, and lower on Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Ward and Matthew Stafford. There were hits and misses from both groups, but the best two of the group were Maye and Prescott. 

If there was one silver lining with this strategy, the waiver wire consistently had quarterbacks who had top-10 stretches over time, including Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Jaxson Dart, Jacoby Brissett and Lawrence, further suggesting punting at quarterback was the right strategy.

The New England Patriots backfield

TreVeyon Henderson was one of the most hyped players leading up to fantasy drafts, with an RB18 ADP. He was several people's favorite sleeper running back, but a few big plays in the preseason made it harder to add Henderson at a value.

I was relatively low on Henderson, placing him at RB23. My concern around Henderson was his usage, and Josh McDaniels' history of using a committee at running back. In 18 seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, the running back who led his team in carries was different from the running back who led his team in third-down snaps in 17 of those seasons. The one exception was Steven Jackson in his one season with the St. Louis Rams, and Jackson already had multiple Pro Bowls under his belt as a full-time running back before McDaniel’s arrival.

Henderson was the most notable receiving back in the 2025 draft, and Rhamondre Stevenson was a quality runner. This led me to believe Stevenson would be the early-down back, while Henderson would be the third-down back.

The running backs' roles evolved over the course of the season. Antonio Gibson was also involved early in the year, while Henderson was a clear backup for a few weeks, and Stevenson missed some time due to injury. The rotation settled over the final third of the season, as Henderson was the primary early-down back, while Stevenson was the third-down and short-yardage back.

Ultimately, Henderson was RB25 in points per game, so I was correct in being low on him. I was similarly high on Stevenson, and he was RB22, which was much better than his ADP. However, the two running backs' roles were never the ones I expected. Ultimately, McDaniels continued his streak of a running back committee, as Henderson led the team in carries while Stevenson earned the most third-down snaps.

The Denver Broncos offense

When I did this exercise a year ago, a lot of the things that were wrong involved the Broncos, particularly from their preseason usage. There is less correlation between how they use their starters in the preseason and regular season than other teams that use all of their players in the preseason. Sean Payton has also used unique rotations in the past, particularly at wide receiver.

There were a few parts of the Broncos offense I was correct on, including being low on Bo Nix relative to ADP and being much lower on Evan Engram, who was top-10 in ADP but finished outside of the top-30 tight ends in fantasy points per game. Despite the uncertainty around the offense and player rotation, there were two players I was high on that didn’t work out as expected.

The first was R.J. Harvey. I had him at RB18, ADP was RB23, and he finished as RB20 in total points and RB24 in points per game. It was clear the Broncos would use a committee in the backfield, as Payton has done throughout his career. It ended up being a three-man rotation with J.K. Dobbins and Tyler Badie, rather than a two-man rotation, which was the biggest problem for Harvey. Ideally, Dobbins would have played on third down, leading Dobbins to have fewer early-down snaps, which would leave more early-down snaps for Harvey.

Harvey was RB29 over the first 10 weeks while Dobbins was healthy and RB13 over the last eight while Dobbins was injured. Generally, rookies are expected to play better over the second half of the season, but it’s also hard to consider Harvey a victory because his emergence coincided with Dobbins’ injury.

Marvin Mims Jr. was also one of my favorite sleeper wide receivers. He played exceptionally well on a per-play basis to end last season, and he seemed in store for a full-time role to begin this season, as Lil’Jordan Humphrey was off the roster while Devaughn Vele was traded. Instead, Troy Franklin was the No. 2 wide receiver for most of the season, but later, it was Pat Bryant. Luckily, if a sleeper isn’t working out early in the season, it’s easy to release them. In Mims' case, it was fine to drop him after Week 1, given his playing time.

Injured players

Injuries are very unpredictable, and several players I had strong opinions on had seasons that were destroyed by injury.

Malik Nabers was one of the players I was lowest on in the first round. He has an excellent game against the Dallas Cowboys, who allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. He caught five passes for 71 yards against the Washington Commanders, who were in the top quarter of teams in allowing fantasy points to wide receivers, and caught two passes for 13 yards in Week 3 against an above-average Kansas City Chiefs defense before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 4. Tyreek Hill was another wide receiver I was relatively low on. He was WR13 by ADP but WR18 after four weeks before his season-ending injury.

On the other end, Jayden Daniels was my overall top quarterback heading into the season. He suffered an injury in Week 2, played a few games in October, tried again to play in Week 14, but otherwise sat out the season. He only had four games where he played over 90% of Washington's offensive snaps. He threw for at least 200 yards and a touchdown in all four of those games in addition to running at least seven times in each of those games, but that didn’t lead to elite fantasy production. He was also missing most of his top wide receivers in those games.

Bucky Irving was the one early-round running back I was notably high on whose season were derailed by injuries. I had him at RB6 while ADP was RB11. He was RB9 after the first four weeks of the season. He had excellent volume but not as much efficiency as expected. He missed Weeks 5-12 due to injury and wasn’t the same player over the final third of the season. He averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in each of those six games, and he wasn’t nearly as involved in the passing game after his return compared to before. 

Closing thoughts

Between my recap articles, preseason recaps and usage and production report, I pride myself in understanding player usage and how that can translate to future fantasy success. In this regard, I was right more often than I was wrong.

While there were some things I was wrong about that were unpredictable, such as Smith-Njigba having one of the best targets per route in the last 20 years. However, there were elements of projecting player talent where I could potentially improve. Luckily, there are several months in an offseason, and PFF has the most extensive football database in the world. 

Hopefully, 2026 will be an even better fantasy football season.